OPINIONS OF ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES, A MINOR GREEK GODDESS. She can be reached at: ECHIDNE-OF-THE-SNAKES.COM

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Oregon: NO on Measure 43 





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Boo! 






Happy Halloween! I wanted to give you a Very Scary Picture, even if it's an older one. Here are all the happy wingnut gentlemen witnessing the signing of a ban on certain types of abortions.

If that doesn't frighten you how about a ride on the ghost train? For something warmer and gentler, watch a video about teaching English to the seniors. If that's too warm and human for you, would you like to know why Air America can't get any advertisers?

Chocolate is still the answer to most of the smaller problems in this life, so make sure that you are well supplied this Halloween. Have fun and be careful.

But whatever you do, don't try to dye your dog's white fur orange with food coloring for Halloween. It doesn't work, unless you had in mind a drowned-rat look.

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Your Dream Is My Nightmare 



A recent post on Eschaton mentions how "civility" is suddenly back in vogue, now that Democrats are so close to grabbing some power. Civility was out of fashion for at least a decade. Rush Limbaugh and his clones reigned the airwaves uninterrupted by any civility. Remember political correctness? P.C.? Remember how viciously the wingnuts attacked it? Well, political correctness did have a strong flavor of civility, the idea that people should be called what they want to be called rather than what ever smearword others have invented for some group. Limbaugh decided that feminists were feminazis. I don't remember many articles on the need for Limbaugh to learn civility.

But times change, of course. Now the liberals and progressives are called traitors and terrorist-lovers and so on. But civility, well, that is a problem on the left side of the political spectrum. Because the left is ANGRY. And what is the right? Never angry, it seems. Only moral and virtuous.

We are scared of the wingnuts, "we" as in the mainstream media and most political commentators. That's why suddenly there is this call for civility. Too bad that the wingnuts see civility as a female virtue, a virtue of the subjugated. Civility equals obedience for them. When the press suddenly tells us that we need to regain the old virtue of civility, be afraid. Be very, very afraid.

The reason I can write all this is that I actually am civil. It's my mother's doing, and I can't deprogram what she so excellently programmed a long time ago. Not that I haven't tried. But the civility she taught wasn't obedience. That would have been easier to get rid of as all children know. What she conveyed was the belief that all people have worth and value and that all people deserve some basic respect, even when they are mistaken or wrong in some ways. Now, I didn't get the whole lesson, but I got enough to find angry blogging quite hard on some days, and enough to make the current political games in this country tough to play.

But play them we must, and this is why: The wingnut dreams are our nightmares. Digby puts it well:

The Republicans and the Christian Right are leading America on a backward march into the Dark Ages --- and that is stepping on our dreams. As a culture, we have always been idealistic about progress and inspired by new discoveries to improve the lot of the human race. We're about invention and reinvention. It's one of our best qualities.

These people are telling us that those days are over. We have to depend upon brute force, superstition and ancient revelation. Science is dangerous. Art is frightening. Education must be strictly circumscribed so that children aren't exposed to ideas that might lead them astray.

It's a pinched, sour, ugly vision of America. For those who believe that their time on earth is all about waiting for The Bridegroom, perhaps that doesn't mean much. But for the rest of us, things like scientific breakthroughs or artistic achievement are inspirational, soaring emotional connections with our country and our fellow man. It makes us proud. The dark-ages conservatives want to take that away from us.

Anger and civility. Can they work together? We'll see, I guess.

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The Newest Moral Contraceptive 



Is an aspirin held firmly between your legs, gals. For the next stage of the abstinence-only era is upon us: The targeted market has been extended to all the twenty-somethings:

he federal government's "no sex without marriage" message isn't just for kids anymore.

Now the government is targeting unmarried adults up to age 29 as part of its abstinence-only programs, which include millions of dollars in federal money that will be available to the states under revised federal grant guidelines for 2007.

The government says the change is a clarification. But critics say it's a clear signal of a more directed policy targeting the sexual behavior of adults.

"They've stepped over the line of common sense," said James Wagoner, president of Advocates for Youth, a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit that supports sex education. "To be preaching abstinence when 90% of people are having sex is in essence to lose touch with reality. It's an ideological campaign. It has nothing to do with public health."

Abstinence education programs, which have focused on preteens and teens, teach that abstaining from sex is the only effective or acceptable method to prevent pregnancy or disease. They give no instruction on birth control or safe sex.

The National Center for Health Statistics says well over 90% of adults ages 20-29 have had sexual intercourse.

But Wade Horn, assistant secretary for children and families at the Department of Health and Human Services, said the revision is aimed at 19- to 29-year-olds because more unmarried women in that age group are having children.

Wade Horn. The man who said what makes a family is a father. He is one of the Christianists, I bet, who have invaded the federal apparatus we used to call the government but which is now called the Religious Police Against Vice.

All this was clear from the beginning, by the way. The abstinence attack and the traditional marriage attack were not intended for just the teenagers and the poor respectively, but for all of us ultimately. Wingnuts have for decades practised an incremental approach to changing our whole lives into a Talibanish nightmare, with the hope that we are like the frog stuck in a saucepan which is then slowly heated to a boiling point. Frogs presumably get used to the rising temperature and never notice that they get boiled.

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Monday, October 30, 2006

Playing Graph Games in Gender Wars 



What has caused a reduction in the gender wage gap in the last two years? Among U.S. full-time workers women's wages are now a higher percentage of men's wages than ever before. Not reaching equality, mind you, and there certainly is no gender gap the other way round, but the gap has shrunk. The blog debate on this started with a post by Greg Mankiw in which he used this graph from the New York Times to show the behavior of the gender gap:





Graphs are fun to play with. Note the steepness of the curve which is intended to tell us how rapidly women's earnings are catching up with men's earnings. But if you look at the vertical axis more carefully, you will find that it has been stre-e-e-tched. Note where the vertical axis starts and where it ends.

That will help in making a steeply rising curve. What also helps is to use smaller units on the horizontal (essentially arbitrary-width) time axis than on the vertical percentage axis. It's easy to imagine making the same graph look much less steep with different choices. And do you still remember that the vertical axis ends before we get to equal earnings for full-time earners?

Are these choices intentional, you may wonder? Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not. But the important point to get is that the visual evidence from a graph is not necessarily a reliable reflection of the actual events.

Moving on from this graph to a different one. What caused the gender gap in wages to shrink? Sadly, the main reason is not one anybody would rejoice over: Men's wages have been recently falling at a higher rate than women's wages. Yes, Virginia, you can have equality at the bottom, too:






Here is the falling wages picture (left-click on it to make it bigger). Note that it includes an extrapolated segment into the future. Such segments are always dangerous to take seriously, and I caution you against doing so. Why? Because if we just extend any trendline which is not horizontal it will ultimately go out of the graph in one direction or the other, and usually the interpretation of that is nonsensical.

The graph uses a different vertical axis for the top curve (the wage gap) than for the other two earnings curves. The relevant axis for the top curve is on the right side, whereas the relevant axis for the two earnings curves is on the left side. That can be pretty confusing, too, as it's hard not to see the top curve somehow in relation to the other two.

Why would men's wages have fallen more rapidly? I think outsourcing is one important culprit here: the loss of fairly well-paying blue-collar jobs to other countries. The demise of the automobile towns and the mining towns and the steel-producing towns. Women are much more likely to be employed in the service industry and the jobs are slightly less outsourcable. Think of waitresses or hairdressers or dental hygienists.

Note also that these are full-time earners we are comparing here. Many more women work part-time in paid employment and part-time earnings are less per hour of work, not just in total numbers. If we included those earnings in the comparisons the gender gap would be a lot bigger.

As an aside, I hate the term "gender wars". Hate it with a red-hot hatred, because wanting fairness and equality between the sexes is poorly framed as a war-call, and because the very term "war" brings in connotations which are inappropriate for the proper understanding of the gender inequality in, say, much of Africa or Saudi Arabia, and because women, on the whole, don't see men as their enemies or regard feminism as a war. But some men do, as my earlier troll post shows.

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On The Insurrection Act 



Did you know that it's now much easier for the president to declare martial law in this country? Here's why:

In a stealth maneuver, President Bush has signed into law a provision which, according to Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), will actually encourage the President to declare federal martial law (1). It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a set of laws that limits the President's ability to deploy troops within the United States. The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C.331 -335) has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C.1385), helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in domestic law enforcement. With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions.

Public Law 109-364, or the "John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007" (H.R.5122) (2), which was signed by the commander in chief on October 17th, 2006, in a private Oval Office ceremony, allows the President to declare a "public emergency" and station troops anywhere in America and take control of state-based National Guard units without the consent of the governor or local authorities, in order to "suppress public disorder."

The Unitard Executive is getting stronger and stronger.

I saw this story only referenced on the angry lefty blogs, so I went out to seek some opposing commentary as a good blogger must do, and I found a conservative blog which argued that this change is caused by the lefties blaming Bush for not acting effectively in the case of the Katrina disaster. Now he can be effective, it seems, or at least totally unopposed. Which is a very scary thought.

Isn't it fascinating how everything bad is the fault of the powerless liberals and progressives? Everything. Iraq war is lost because of us. Fascism makes mousesteps forwards because of us. Even all Bush's errors are because he tries to rule like one of us. The only solution is to put the liberals and progressives in power. Then we can blame the conservatives who are not in power.

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Today's Troll Thought 



From my comments:

This is totally wrong! We still have plenty of good jobs in this country. The problem is that women are taking too many of them. We just don't have enough decent jobs to go around and we probably never will. Gender relations are all about economics and most guys will always resent a highly successful women because she's obviously a women who he's not financially qualified to have a relationship with. This is why most female CEO's never marry and never have children. Better to give the job to a guy so he can support a wife and kids.

Either America voluntarily returns to Christianity and a 1950's lifestyle or else our society is sure to implode into either a wide-spread gangsta rap style anarchy or else it will be absorbed by a fundamentalist Muslim takeover.

Men will always dominate women. The $24K question is, which race of men would you ladies prefer to be dominated by?
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One Hundred 



The number of American military personnel killed in Iraq in October 2006, and the month is not yet over. The dying is not over, either, and not only for the Americans in Iraq but much more so for the Iraqis who get killed for just being either Sunnis or Shias. For being alive, really. So much death, the smell of death and religion.

No god can gloat over all this dying.

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Onwards, Christian Soldiers 



Garry Wills has written an article on the partly hidden Christianistization of the federal government. Sorry about the monster word, but it's necessary to distinguish these folk from the more common type of Christians. The Christianists are a fairly odd type of Christians as they seem to ignore most everything Jesus ever said. But they are the ones who find George Bush an almost-winged messenger from God, and they are the ones who have been given all the jobs where the federal government might affect the lives of women, for example. Yes, my dear sisters. We are the meat that is served to the wingnuts, because our rights are dispensable.

Here is an example from Wills's article:

One of George W. Bush's first acts as president—in fact, on his first day in office, signaling its importance to his evangelical supporters—was to restore a gag rule on aid to international organizations that counsel women on the subject of abortion.[29] Though abortion is legal in the US, the President was able by executive decree to proscribe its mere discussion in other countries if they are to receive money for their population problems. This was just the beginning of the imposition of moral limits on health measures abroad. Though the President was praised for devoting millions of dollars to preventing and treating AIDS in Africa, 30 percent of that money was earmarked for promoting sexual abstinence, and none of it was for condoms.[30] Religion trumped medical findings on what is effective.

Domestically, too, $170 million were lavished on promoting a policy of "abstinence-only" in the schools during the year 2005 alone. The Centers for Disease Control removed from its Web site the findings of a panel that abstinence-only programs do not work. A study of the abstinence programs being financed by the federal government showed how little medical knowledge mattered, as opposed to moral dictation. As Chris Mooney writes in The Republican War on Science:

In evaluating the curricula of these programs, the report found that the vast majority exaggerated the failure rates of condoms, spread false claims about abortion's health risks (including mental health problems) and perpetuated sexual stereotypes.... Perhaps most outrageously, one curriculum even claimed that sweat and tears could transfer the HIV virus. You might think that this would be a fringe claim even on the Right, but Senate majority leader Bill Frist, himself a physician, repeatedly refused to repudiate the notion of such transmission in an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos.[31]

The religious right had for years been spreading the unfounded claim that abortion causes breast cancer. The National Cancer Institute had correctly reported that no study has proved such a thing, but twenty-seven pro-life members of Congress pressured the NCI to remove that from its on-line fact sheet.

Another concern of the religious right was the morning-after abortion pill. Bush put one of the pill's known opponents, David Hager, on the board of the Food and Drug Administration that was to decide whether that pill could be sold without a prescription. Though Hager voted with the minority of three on the board against over-the-counter sales of the pill, as opposed to a majority of twenty-four, he raised such a clamor about the danger of teenaged girls using it, increasing the pressure from the religious right, that the FDA refused to implement the board's decision. Hager gave himself and God the credit for this, telling an audience at an evangelical college in Kentucky:

I argued it from a scientific perspective, and God took that information, and he used it through this minority report [sic] to influence the decision. You don't have to wave your Bible to have an effect as a Christian in the public arena. We serve the greatest Scientist. We serve the Creator of all life.[32]

Remember what happened to David Hager later on? That's the sort of man who was deemed suitable to decide over women's health and well-being by the Christianists. But then a veterinarian was deemed suitable for the job, too.

All this makes me breathe fire. But in certain ways an anti-woman program was to be expected once wingnuts were in power. What I didn't really expect was the religious takeover of the Iraq occupation and its horrible consequences:

God's war needs God's warriors, and the White House was ready to supply them. Kay Coles James had been the White House personnel scout for domestic offices. The equivalent director of personnel for the Iraq Coalition Provisional Authority (headed by Catholic convert Paul Bremer) was the White House liaison to the Pentagon, James O'Beirne, a conservative Catholic married to National Revieweditor Kate O'Beirne. Those recruited to serve in the CPA were asked if they had voted for Bush, and what their views were on Roe v. Wade and capital punishment.[39] O'Beirne trolled the conservative foundations, Republican congressional staffs, and evangelical schools for his loyalist appointees. Relatives of prominent Republicans were appointed, and staffers from offices like that of Senator Rick Santorum. Right moral attitude was more important than competence.[40]

That was proved when the first director of Iraqi health services, Dr. Frederick Burkle, was dismissed. Burkle, a distinguished physician, was a specialist in disaster relief, with experience in Kosovo, Somalia, and Kurdish Iraq. His replacement, James Haverman, had run a Christian adoption agency meant to discourage women from having abortions. Haverman placed an early emphasis on preventing Iraqis from smoking, while ruined hospitals went untended. This may suggest the policy on appointments that put Michael Brown in charge of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, but the parallel is insufficiently harsh. Chris Matthews brought it up on his television show while interviewing the Washington Post reporter who had covered the CPA in Iraq, Rajiv Chandrasekaran, who said, "There were a hundred Browns in Iraq."[41] But there were Bible study groups in the Green Zone.

Bible study groups in the Green Zone... Notice the odd echo here. Fundamentalist religion clashing against fundamentalist religion. God clashing against God.

What would Jesus say about that, I wonder?

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Stop the South Dakota Extremists 





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Sunday, October 29, 2006

Old Trick or Treat Chant 

Soul cakes, soul cakes,
Give to us our soul cakes,
An apple, a pear,
A plum or a cherry,
Anything to make us merry.
Soul cakes, soul, cakes.....

Soul cakes are put out on the evening of Samhein to feed the spirits who come to visit that night.

Another version:

A soul, a soul, a soul cake.
Please good ma'm a soul cake.
An apple, a pear, a plum or a cherry,
Any good thing to make us merry.
Up with your kettles and down with your pans
Give us an answer and we'll be gone
Little Jack, Jack sat on his gate
Crying for butter to butter his cake
One for St. Peter, two for St. Paul,
Three for the man who made us all.
-----
In local French Canadian folklore around here it used to be important to get home before midnight on October 31. If you're still out making merry you'll run the risk of le feu follie burning you. There used to be stories about revelers who stayed out too late and were chased home to punish them for violating Tou' Sain' day. Some said they could show you where it burned their sabots just as they reached their door step.
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IDEALS v. PRACTICALITY 

The fight we all lose

Posted by olvlzl

T
here is nothing idealistic about insisting on ideals that have no chance of becoming reality right now and refusing to compromise on those ideals. People are dying now for lack of practical relief that a Democratic Congress would provide, even a compromised Democratic Congress. There is no good in ignoring death, disease, hunger ignorance and pollution while holding out for something purer in some glorious, remote future. The theoretical ideal might never be achieved and even if it could be, the lives of those who could be saved are here now. They need saving today. To insist on your ideals or principles instead of a compromise that is better than the status quo is to wager on their lives. Their lives aren't ours to bet with.

If you want to put it in stark terms, how many days are you willing to go without food for your political ideals? Are you willing to die when the odds might indicate that your ideals stand little chance of being achieved? If you imagine that you are willing to die then how many of your children are you willing to sacrifice on the same long odds? For a person facing starvation it isn't just a matter of their own life. Children are even more vulnerable than adults in most cases. If the answer is that you aren't willing to see yours die but you are prepared to take a chance on other peoples' children then you have to believe that yours are more worthy of life than people who you are betting on now. For us it's a matter of imagination. They are looking at the skulls of their children showing through their skin.

The all or nothing fixation, the worst kind of this idealism, is a form of self-satisfied preening. It has been with us for as long as one leftist could attain personal status by being the most leftist in the room. It has helped lead us into the disaster we find ourselves in today. And it has produced nothing. Nothing. Rigid, uncompromising and insistent idealism is sterile and useless in the real world. It would be better to call it what it really is, vanity.

The period of most rapid progress in the sixties was full of compromises, some clean, a lot of it pretty grimy but progress was made. The progress seems to have moved some on the left into the kind of competitive arrogance that leads to folly. The folly in this case was pretending that our individual interest groups were in a stronger position than they were. Saying so didn't make it true. We started demanding the premature delivery of the presently unobtainable and our politicians couldn't deliver. We started attacking them for not being able to do the impossible. And doing that is just plain nuts. Working coalitions with the center and among competing parts of the left fell apart. In reality were we were only as strong as the coalition based on compromises of ideals.

We all know that the other path of folly was the Vietnam war. As Martin Luther King pointed out, with spending for the war Democrats stopped being able to deliver incremental progress both for the poor and for the middle class. It might not be an accident that was when the Party began to lose support in the general population. The result was Richard Nixon and the rise of the far right. He had to deal with the old coalition and since he was most interested in playing his demented version of the great game he let it have some of the last of the great reforms it has put into law. But he also began the Supreme Court appointments that would doom many of those.

Amidst it all the rigid idealists presented the Republicans with a very useful tool. Republicans and their media, fixing on the most extreme of the radical idealists, made the rest of us into a cartoon. And the show liberals were gratified and encouraged. Even Phil Donahue who was supposed to be a liberal turned the word into a synonym for "flake". Conservatives have used this cartoon to deflect attention while they were ending the middle class, stealing everything they could for their wealthy patrons. Tricked by the media, the general population has adopted the lie to their own disadvantage, as has been pointed out many times before.

I will confess that I was taken in by idealist fundamentalism for a lot of that time. We were standing for the soundest of principles. To compromise our ideals was to betray them. Eventually, somehow, even as we faced repeated defeat, it would make us stronger to remain intransigent. Some of those hucksters have a mighty good act. But in the end it's producing results that is really idealistic.

The impatient left has been waiting for that glorious, instantaneous millennium to dawn for way too many lifetimes. The bodies of those who could have been helped by moderate assistance during that period is a pile too big to tell. Don't bother waiting any longer, it's never going to get here that way. We've never been farther from it in our lifetimes. The futile insistence on having it all now is a block to reaching those ideals. If some progress is made, incrementally edging closer to the final goal, the ideal stands a chance. If people who aren't on the left start seeing modest success instead of our present complete failure they might just think we're on to something. Especially if some of that success improves their lives. We might start building a larger coalition instead of seeing it shrinking all the time. The perfect really is the enemy of the good and it's also its own worst enemy.
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So You Think It Doesn’t Matter Who Wins The Election Next Month? 

Posted by olvlzl

Even more ominously, Philip Giraldi, a former CIA official, reported in The American Conservative a year ago that Vice President Cheney's office had directed contingency planning for "a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons" and that "several senior Air Force officers" involved in the planning were "appalled at the implications of what they are doing -- that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack -- but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objection."

Read this article by Daniel Ellsberg and tell me exactly why it doesn’t matter anymore.

There isn’t anything I can add to what he says about the plans to start a third Bush II war in Iran. I know what your response will be. “The Dems didn’t stop Iraq."

You don’t think it’s worth betting that the minority of Democrats who supported the invasion of Iraq might have learned a lesson from it that the Republicans never will? If you don’t think that’s a bet worth making in 2006, I have nothing to say to you.
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I Read "Sisters"--- I Think 

Posted by olvlzl

Remember when someone posted what was said to be Lynne Cheney's lesbian novel "Sisters" on the internet? It was back when this self-suppressed novel- and seldom has the term been more charitably assigned - was coming to light. Risking the need to wash out my eyes with soap afterwards I read it. I'm a sworn enemy of Lynn Cheney and her Kaffee Klatch of Kulture warriors of long standing.

Now I wish I'd saved it because it's nowhere to be seen. It disappeared shortly after. Not running to the five-hundred or so dollars a copy sold for at e-bay during that period it was the only way to see what the ultra-right-wing doyenne of Republican efforts to save Western culture might have produced by way of a lesbian romance.

I wasn't wowed. By the time I read the chapter entitled "Miracle Whip" I was certain that what was posted was a spoof. As spoof it wasn't bad, as serious writing, pee-ewwww!. But there were people who claimed it was the real thing, absent a paper copy who knows?

Today it's not only the book that isn't to be read but apparently it's the tome that dare not speak its name. On with Blitzer the other night, Lynne was mighty eager to change the topic to one of her cut and paste jobs instead.

But according to this story, you might get a chance to see it on the boards.

Lynne Cheney's still-remembered 1981 lesbian romance novel, "Sisters," was feted Monday night in a special performance by the "Lynne Cheney Players" - to the delight of an audience of liberal East Village types.

Yeah, I know it's Lloyd Groves. But it is fun. Notice this:

Choice scenes adapted from "Sisters" included one in which two female characters write to each other: "Let us go away together, away from the anger and the imperatives of men. We shall find ourselves a secluded bower where they dare not venture. There will be only the two of us, and we shall linger through long afternoons of sweet retirement."

One of Cheney's characters swoons to a Sapphic love letter: "How well her words describe our love - or the way it would be if we could remove all impediments, leave this place, and join together ... Then our union would be complete. Our lives would flow together, twin streams merging into a single river."

Maybe the book was intended as a lesbian turn off. How else would you explain a right-wing, cultural tattle-tale writing something like this?
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Saturday, October 28, 2006

Can you take it? Kenneth Gaburo turns all the ScREWs 

Posted by olvlzl

..... among our far-outs, has the finest ear. Virgil Thomson

After mentioning him in a comment thread elsewhere last week someone kindly sent me a link to MP3s of Kenneth Gaburo’s legendary work, Lingua II, Maledetto. The piece of theater-music has a lot of material illuminating issues about misogyny discussed here earlier this week.

If you take the 45 minutes to listen to the two sections you will hear a lot of unsettling things about sex, anger, objectification and hate. It is called “Maledetto” for a good reason, a lot of this is about hostility and hate as well as about eroticism and humor.* I don’t know if he liked the term but this is avant-garde art of an extraordinarily original and disturbing kind. It uses cliches and an astonishing array of vulgarity (I’d never heard a lot of it before). But this isn’t used as Robert Mapplethorpe depicted similar material. It isn’t merely presented to shock and as a demonstration that he can do it if he wants to. The way they are used here opens windows into what they reveal about people and the communities that those people belong to. A lot of the things it contains are not easy to take, some are pretty disturbing. It’s purpose is to provoke thinking, not to please.

The delivery of the texts even those that are quite banal sometimes carries the meaning past the words themselves. When those are spoken in close succession or at the same time they become a contrapuntal experience. The canonic sections in which the same text is spoken by different voices beginning at different times are striking for the difference in tone and emphasis, from erotic and loving to contemptuous to angry that the same text can have.

As to the sound of the piece, Thomson was right, it contains great beauties, many of those in the form of wrenching emotional contrasts. The beginning with the group sustaining the sound “s” for a couple of minutes gives way to a reading of an entirely banal text about screws. A couple of minutes into that the other voices break in with challenges and commentary. The timing and skill of the ensemble is amazing. I’d like to see another group try to perform it without Gaburo’s direction to see what they came up with. It’s certainly not everyone’s idea of a good time but it isn’t likely to be like something you have experienced.

Gaburo was one of the most varied composers in the history of music. The pieces I’ve heard go from a very fine and original but clearly traditional string quartet to some of the most beautiful (as well as disturbing) electronic music to a series of these spoken pieces. One of the most difficult to listen to is “The Flow of (u)”, three voices signing the same pitch on the vowel “u” for 23 minutes. I don’t recommend that for the first time listener. The electronic pieces collected on “Tape Play”, Pogus CD P21020-2, would be a good place to start listening to Gaburo’s music. These include his revenge on a (literally) violent enemy of new music “Fat Millie’s Lament”, the pellucid “For Harry”. The collection “Five Works for Voices, Instruments and Electronics”, New World 80585-2 , including “The Flow of (u)” and the String Quartet, is more of a challenge though rewarding.

Other out of print CDs and LPs of his music can be bought second hand. One of these is the Music & Arts CD- 832 that contains ENOUGH! —(NOT ENOUGH)— for forty voices and percussion on a text by Benjamin Franklin. It speaks to our political condition.

* Gaburo once said that he liked forms that were exhaustive of ideas. His music didn’t leave much out. His Mouth-Piece: Sextet for Solo Trumpet on the New World CD is a good example of that. Kenneth Gaburo 1926-1993
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Blogging While Tied To The Mast 

Between the blogger problems this morning and the flickering electricity here I'm having trouble posting today. I will try later when the wind goes down, provided we still have electricity and a phone line. I am sorry for the problems.
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The New McCarthyism In Review 

WASHINGTON -- Bunnatine Greenhouse sits in a cubicle in a far corner of an office in the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) headquarters in downtown Washington, DC, where, she says, "I am treated like a non-person." Months crawl by yet her immediate supervisor just can't seem to find the time to meet with her to discuss a work assignment. The taxpayers of the United States pay her salary but, oddly, no demands are made of her.

That's a sad plight for a dynamic woman executive who is the cover girl of the July/August issue of Fraud Magazine. She's not written up for being on the wrong side of the law, only on the wrong side of the Bush White House, now a law unto itself.
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NBC is refusing to air an ad for the new Dixie Chicks documentary, “Shut Up & Sing.” Variety reports, “NBC’s commercial clearance department said in writing that it ‘cannot accept these spots as they are disparaging to President Bush.’”

Harvey Weinstein, who is distributing the movie, issued the following statement:

It’s a sad commentary about the level of fear in our society that a movie about a group of courageous entertainers who were blacklisted for exercising their right of free speech is now itself being blacklisted by corporate America. The idea that anyone should be penalized for criticizing the president is profoundly un-American.

ThinkProgress has obtained the ad NBC doesn’t want you to see. Watch it:
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Ohio GOP Smears Al Franken In Press Release With Doctored Photo, Fabricated Quote

Yesterday, the Ohio Republican Party sent out a news release (full text here) attacking Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) for enlisting the support of comedian Al Franken:

It is not surprising that Sherrod Brown is enlisting the help of a Hollywood liberal, who like him, is so far out of the mainstream of Ohio values. What is troubling is that Brown would solicit support from someone [Franken] who compared conservatives to Nazis “who should drink poison and die.”

The quote used in the news release is taken from Bernard Goldberg book, 110 People Who Are Screwing Up America, in an alleged interview between Goldberg and Franken. But in his book, Goldberg makes it clear that the exchange is completely fictional. The Ohio Republican Party represented it as fact.
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You know about Limbaugh already. And Coulter, Drudge, .....
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Why We Can't Avoid Fixing The Voting System Now 

There are reports of voting machines recording Democratic and other votes as votes for Republicans:

A friend of our family ours went last Friday to early vote in Maplewood at Sunnen Park. He voted for Claire McCaskill, but each time he, the election worker, and the election supervisor pressed the screen for Claire, the screen said he had voted for Jim Talent.

I sent this info along to a friend that works in Claire'’s campaign. I have the name and number of the guy this happened to if you are interested.

Bradblog suggests bringing video equipment when you go to vote to record incidents of this kind of thing. I'd look into whether or not that is permitted where you vote first but a witness or making a complaint about it at the polls is certainly a good idea. Make sure that it's a big enough complaint that other voters will hear and check.
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What If We Dodge The Bullet? 

Posted by olvlzl

What if they lose? What if the congress investigates the crimes of the Bush regime and those are stopped? What if things go back to normal?

After what we've seen in the past six years, if things can go back to normal it won't be a blessed relief, it will be a disaster. Our recent history proves that we have fatal problems in the foundation of the American government.

Our elections have to be fixed, not just returned to c. 1964. We have to secure the vote, from before it is cast, to counting it, to reporting the results and to their fulfillment. No elections official, secretary of state, or judge can ever be allowed to prevent another legal ballot being cast or counted or made to count. The sleazy behavior we've seen from every level from elections clerk to Supreme Court and the Executive wouldn't be tolerated in a real democracy. A democracy needs it to be an impeachable crime for a Supreme Court Justice to say that a Citizen of the United States does not have a right to vote. That is a fundamental contradiction of the role of the court in a democracy. Anyone who believes that has no place on our court or in our government.

The media, and today that means the electronic media, have to have their self-interested bias exposed and it's pollution scrubbed out of our politics. They have to be forced to perform the public service they promised, including standards of fairness. Broadcast stations must provide real news, including local news, which has to be unbiased and fair. And without diverse ownership of the media, they won't serve the entire public. Women and minority groups have to control parts of the electronic media.

The cable "news" channels have betrayed the public trust even more flagrantly than broadcast, spreading lies effective enough to start the most idiotic and dangerous war of our history. We will pay the cost of their lies for decades, in blood as well as in money.

They also aided the Bush putsch of 2000 and the earlier scheme to remove a genuinely elected President on trumped up charges and lies. Pretending that a rogue cable industry isn't a danger to freedom has to stop. Anyone who defends them on their crimes against democracy is a dupe or a profiteer. Put them under the same public service requirements as broadcast media. Media passes itself off as the voice of the people, then let them show it by putting the public before their investors and owners.

Recent history proves that self-government can't depend on leaving it to chance. Laissez faire democracy dies and the death is never a natural one. It lets the powerful and wealthy swamp the Peoples's voice almost all of the time. The Supreme Court rulings making corporations artificial people made that all the more true

Our government is always presented as being those who hold office , that is where almost all of the pitiful efforts at reform are concentrated. And that hasn't worked. We have the most dishonest government of our lifetimes. Putting patches on the process to make it a level field is unrealistic to the level of willful blindness. Powerful interests have power. They will always win when they have equal access to the process and own the media. The handful of examples where individuals or small groups win over the big guy make for sentimental TV movies, using them as proof that the system works is calculated dishonesty.

If the People are neglected then it all goes wrong. They won't even show up to vote. That step isn't a naive social studies lesson that you stop thinking about after the test in fourth grade. You don't go on to the higher study of civics and leave it behind. There is nothing higher in a democracy than the People, there is no act of government more important than their Vote. Abraham Lincoln, one of the real founders of the country we live in today, gave the formula for it. You know it by heart. He didn't mention the congress, the executive or the high church of the judiciary. He said that the enormous sacrifice of the American People in the Civil War was so that government of the People, by the People, and for the People shall not perish from the earth.

Any aftermath of the Bush II disaster that doesn't include changes to these laws will be just the beginning of the next time. Not securing the Vote, the will of the People; and forcing their own chosen responsibilities on the media, the only guarantee of an informed and realistic Vote, is a welcome mat for the next would-be dictator. Any liberal, leftist, Democrat, independent, even "moderate" Republican who lets two years go by without enacting real electoral and media reform had better beware. It's just a matter of waiting before the same coalition of corporate interests, bigots, oligarches and haters tries again. They might be as slow and stealthy as they were this time, buying up media, using it to spread lies that "more speech" can't drown out. And they'll make their come back having learned from the mistakes they made this time. Like the aristocratic conspirators in ancient Athens, they will be more dangerous than ever.

Along with these two absolute prerequisites to securing democracy there is the necessity for a full and public appraisal of the thefts and other crimes of the Bush II and previous presidencies. There has to be a full program of congressional hearings, done in public, of what has happened. They have to be congressional hearings because that is their responsibility. A commission or blue ribbon panel or other kind of establishment dodge won’t do it. Those are mechanisms for obscuring and stalling. This is a job for those appointed by The People. They asked for the responsibility, no one forced them to run.

There will be a chorus of media and politicians and the Republican talking points network telling us to “get over it”. They are the PR voice of the criminals. We have to be prepared to force these reforms over their constant lies and slogans.

Just going along as we have been is a guarantee that the disasters will continue. We will have to push the next Democratic congress to work simultaneously on all these issues while taking up new business. They are not extras they are the only way we are going to find out how to go forward, to make progress instead of making the same mistakes we have made before.

If the Republican who have created this disaster win a majority next week, the problems will not disappear they will certainly get worse. Giving up before those problems are fixed securely is not an option for us.
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Friday, October 27, 2006

Another Bowl of Popcorn, Please 



This is a very funny reality if you manage the sarcastic angle that is necessary for full savoring of the comings-and-goings of American elections. I was reading of the impossibility of fitting Jim Webb's whole name into an election machine when I came across this comment by someone called Niranjan Ramakrishnan:

There, but for the grace of God... was my first thought as I read the report. If the machine deemed "James H. 'Jim' Webb" too long, I could only thank my luck that I had firmly turned down all requests to run for the Senate from Virginia this year.

I scanned the Post quickly to see if a similar fate had attended George Allen, Webb's incumbent opponent in the race. A quick tally revealed that George Allen had more letters in his name than James Webb -- and even more, if you added recently-acquired middle names like 'Macaca' and 'Stock Option'.

Actually, Allen did pretty well in what might be termed Great Ballot Massacre of 2006. The report goes on to say George Allen is one of the few whose names appear in full, although his party affiliation has been cut off. Fortune finally appears to be shining on Allen. What a godsend, in a time when according to every poll, the presence of the letter 'R' after the candidate's name is tantamount to electoral cyanide!

Luscious. And it is all very funny, if you're a world-weary and cynical goddess. But it's also fairly outrageous. That few people find it outrageous just goes to show how very despondent people are about democracy. What does it matter what the name is on the ballots, after all, when we don't even know how the ballots are counted or if they are counted. Who cares if you have to vote for some guy called Jim, or if you have no idea what the party affiliation of Allen might be. Who cares about anything anymore? Except the absolute necessity of requiring all voters to have photo IDs based on valid birth certificates, so that they can go vote for some guy called just Jim or some guy with no party affiliation.

What matters is that nobody should have to fix this problem before the elections. Now, that is more important than having a farce for elections.

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Friday Funnies 



Freeway blogger has a new great idea, and animation is applied to political discourse on Iraq. Then George Bush asks "what's in a name".

Enjoy the weekend, too.

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Friday Cat and Dog Blogging 



All with borrowed cats and dogs. But great ones.





This is spinoza's cat lying on the floor snoozing away. I forgot to find the cat's name.


And these are Barry's dogs, Cruiser (in the first pic) and Arrow (in the second):







A great lineup, even if I say so myself.

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Such Good News 



For the ExxonMobil Corporation:

The ExxonMobil Corporation reported today that it earned $10.49 billion in the third quarter, the second largest quarterly profit ever posted by a publicly traded American company. The largest on record was also reported by ExxonMobil — $10.71 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005.

High oil and natural-gas prices and strong demand for energy made the quarter a robust one for the company and for much of the industry. But the search for new supplies is growing more costly as the international oil giants push into ever remoter or more politically unstable territory, leading Royal Dutch/Shell to report a sharp fall in net income today.

ExxonMobil's results in the quarter were 26 percent better than in the same period in 2005, and translated into earnings of $1.77 a share, well above the consensus Wall Street forecast of $1.59 a share.

"High oil and natural-gas prices...made the quarter a robust one for the company." The problem with this sentence is that the energy industry has some power over the prices. It's an oligopoly, meaning that the supply side consists of only a few large firms, and an oligopoly doesn't just react to prices but affects them directly.

Did you spot how the good story was wrapped with a few complaints, too? The way I always tell of my good news (such as a new story getting published) by complaining about my tempero-mandular joint disorder or whatever. That way my friends don't get overly envious. Here the equivalent complaint is about having to go to more and more marginal and dangerous areas in search for more oil resources.

But the high prices of oil make that profitable, you know, even a price that has fallen down from $80 to $60:

Oil companies -- at least private oil companies in the US and Europe -- do face a big future problem. It isn't oil at $60. It is that they aren't likely to be able to replace their existing oil fields -- oil fields that generally were developed with the expectation that oil's long-term price was well below $60 -- with comparably cheap fields.

Oil fields that were meant to turn a profit if oil averaged $20 will need to be replaced by oil fields that will only turn a profit is oil is well above $20. Hey, that's life. No country with oil should be selling their oil forward at that low a price right now.

There is going to be a crisis about energy fairly soon (assuming that you don't think the Iraq war is about oil, really). China and India want to drive SUVs, too, and there isn't enough oil for all those potential new suburbanites as well as the old suburbanites in the West, especially with the peak oil problem.

I don't see much being done about any of this. What I see is more short-term thinking of the "drink and be merry for tomorrow we shall die" type.

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The U.S.-Mexico Border Fence 



Remember my earlier post on Dana Goldstein's article about the scarcity of women commenting on politics in the media? In that I quoted Goldstein writing this bit after listing some women she thinks are good commenters:

But even these women seem to be tokens. Most of the time, they haven't covered horserace electoral politics, the Iraq War, weapons proliferation, the anti-immigration fence, or any of the other hardball national political topics that op-ed pages prioritize in this time of wars and midterms.

I wrote down all those hardbally things into a shopping list format, and I'm going to write on all of them, though to be fair to me I have already written about the immigration problems and the Iraq war.

Hence the anti-immigration fence topic for this post. So what do I think about it?

As a practical solution it's inane. It might work if human beings couldn't climb, or if we equipped it with military towers every mile or so, staffed by gun-carrying border guards told to shoot at first sight of an illegal immigrant. But then the fence would be utterly unethical.

The walls in history which have worked (The Great Wall of China, the Berlin Wall) were guarded day and night. Those walls also had advantages the U.S.-Mexico border fence does not: The Great Wall was meant to stop invading troops which would have had not just men but animals and gear, both of which would make wall-climbing harder, and the Berlin Wall was in an urban area and only needed to span a short distance. As far as I can tell from the pictures this new fence is going to be a chain-linked one (fairly easy to climb or to cut through) and will run in uninhabited areas. No illegal immigrant is going to be stopped by the fence if they aren't already stopped by the idea of walking across the hot and waterless areas, guided by criminal smugglers.

As a symbolic solution the fence is great. It looks like a great victory to every foreigner-hating or foreigner-fearing Murkan patriot and it's going to give lots of money to whatever Republican company gets the job of building it.

That's my feminine opinion of the anti-immigration fence. It's hard to think that writing about it is seen as paying proper attention to hardball politics of great importance. Because it is a very silly topic.

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Thursday, October 26, 2006

More on Misogyny 



If you scroll down on this page you will find a post about how thoughts ripen which links to several good posts on the topic of fascism and misogyny on other blogs. I got so many thoughts after reading those posts that my brain stayed up and had a rowdy party late into the night and most of the thoughts still have hangover.

So I looked up some of my older posts on misogyny, to see what I thought about the topic in my previous lives. This is one which still reads fairly well. It's a review of a book on misogyny. And this and this might be of interest, too.

Then I tried to understand why saying anything more about David Neiwert's post on fascism and misogyny was so hard for me, and part of the explanation is that his treatment of the topic is excellent and sufficient on its own. It's not always important for me to chime in.

Still, that hasn't stopped me in the past too often, so I dug deeper, and came up with this: The basic story about misogyny and fascism is based on the idea that deep in the subconsciousness of all/some men, or perhaps of all/some people, is this diffuse and bitter hatred of women. David puts it like this:

Recognize, first, where it originates: In the twisted, sad view of humanity as innately evil and sick. In the strange mentality that perceives nature -- God's creation itself -- as sinful. In the demented, pathological view of women as lesser humans. These are all ideas we often associate now with our barbaric past, but the truth is that they live on in innumerable ways, especially embedded as they are in popular culture. Why do you think, after all, that a two-hour display of sadism such as The Passion of the Christ could be such an immense crowd-pleaser? Why would a show like 24 draw such immense ratings? Why would slasher films constitute their own moneymaking genre?

The old Catholic misogyny has devolved in our times to the proto-fascist's murderous style of misogyny. Only in the 21st century, instead of being organized, it's just routinely celebrated, as it has been lately in so many American thrillers and horror films. Sure, the psychopaths in them are all scary. But they all have a psychosexual hatred of women. The concept of women as the cause of their psychopathism is embedded in all these entertainments. But when these entertainments are played as mainstream, then the fascist pathology they are about slips into the cultural bloodstream, where it joins, echoes, and nurtures the latent fascism already there, as well as that coming from other sources. Eventually, it announces itself in a thousand atrocities, large and small.

...

The irrationalism that misogyny embodies, buried deep in our systems, simply can't be dealt with gently. The kind of men -- and women -- who will fall for the new misogyny aren't going to be impressed with compromises and halfway measures. The only thing they understand is "my way or the highway." So those are the options they should be given.

See, this is where I get all despondent and start having the rowdy brain-party instead: "The irrationalism that misogyny embodies, buried deep in our systems..." Do I have this hatred of women deep inside my female system? And if so, why? Can some armchair evolutionary psychologist enlighten me how hating women has helped the human race to survive? And if misogyny is irrational, why have it in the first place?

Combine this with the argument I have often read that the hatred of women has its roots in the fear of death, fear of nature and fear of all the bodily liquids which somehow denote nature and death. In this view, women are closer to nature than men, having more bodily fluids and that fear-inducing permeability. It is this smelly and liquid and squishy type of femaleness that men are supposed to hate, because they come out of it, desire to re-enter it and see it as death. Which is all quite poetic and also totally incomprehensible at the same time, because women are not one whit closer to nature or more mortal, and this doesn't explain how a woman could be a misogynist in a genuinely primal way but only by imitation.

It's not that I necessarily disagree with this view. I just can't relate to it in anything having to do with personal experience. I'm better at grasping the related idea of the need to control women or at least women's fertility, and I can even see how an uncontrolled woman might look like chaos to the eyes of very authoritarian people, because women are in some ways very desirable property to have. But why the whore-virgin dualism? Why are "good women" the ones who don't want men physically at all? Why are the women who do want men physically labeled "bad women"? Why, why, I ask, and I mean the question in a very deep sense. None of the answers that are given suffice to explain to me what exactly it would be in the male psyche that would create this, assuming that this is what David means when he talks about misogyny in "our" systems.

Sometimes I think that the deep reason I'm looking for has to do with dependence. The theory that it is the need for the other, and the rage we may have felt as infants when we were hungry or wet and no giant emerged to care for our needs within the first second of our rage-red screaming, combined with the realization that we were totally helpless otherwise. Could misogyny have its seed in that experience, forgotten now, or buried under years of other memories? Could it be that misogyny is caused by our primary carers being almost totally women? I don't know.

But the tugging between independence and dependence may have something to do with all of this; the need to stand alone, to be strong, and the simultaneous need for the society, for other people, for sex and caring. The fascist solution makes the independence and strength primary and tries to codify the caring into a forced maintenance activity, available at the press of a button. But really only available for men. What do women do about this conflict between independence and dependence?

The common story is to argue that women don't have the same desire for independence, that women are less separate from the webs of the community. I'm not sure if this is the final story we are going to tell or if this is how women are socialized to be right now. It could also be that women seek independence in different forms and places, or that the need for independence comes out in different distorted forms in women more often than in men: higher rates of depression, anorexia, bulemia. Or maybe not. This is all the stuff that dances around in my brain and in my stomach.

And the whole connection between violence and sexuality. Are they alternatives? An old military story is this one:

Whatever background knowledge a recruit possessed about rifles was sure to lead to mistakes when learning the M-14. Unfamiliarity with rifles may have given some (like myself) an advantage in this regard. Nevertheless, any recruit from either kind of background was prone on occasion to incorrectly refer to his rifle as "a gun." Such verbal mistakes like this one were quite common and drew attention to the perpetrator. As punishment, a recruit would likely stand at attention outdoors (sometimes clad only in his undergarments or even naked) and repeat over and over "This is my rifle, this is my gun. This is for shooting, this is for fun."

Military stories I've been told often use sexuality to turn women into the other by both making them into the valuable property that is to be protected and by making the act of killing itself into something akin to fucking. Weapons are given female names and the act of intercourse transfers from the recruit to his mechanical tools. How close is this to misogyny? Under what conditions does it work to make misogyny into a tactic of war? Or am I going to deep here?

Here are some of my half-digested ideas on the topic of woman hatred. I carefully chose to be all intelligence in this discussion, because my emotional reactions to the whole topic are not happy ones. But to ignore the emotional reactions in the general debate is most likely a grave mistake.

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False Balance, Again 



Sometimes blogging is really easy. I just go to some other blog and harvest all the hard work there. Yesterday, for example, Atrios put together two posts about false balance in the media. "False balance" is when you decide that neutral writing means finding a nasty deed on both sides of the political aisle before you can write about the nasty deeds at all. An example would be if your next door neighbor was found guilty of murdering people and you wanted to tell this to your cousin in Nebraska but wanted to make it sound neutral so you'd add that the neighbor on the other side sometimes rakes her leaves into your yard instead of picking them up. So it sorta evens out.

Translated into the political arena, false balance means something like this:

In a report on how recent campaigns advertisements are "getting ugly," ABC News, unable to point to a single instance of "nasty" attacks from Democratic candidates or their supporters, suggested it is only a matter of time before "the left" begins to "unleash its garbage as well." ABC News offered no evidence to back up its allegation that Democrats might soon resort to distasteful, negative advertising.

Or something like this:

KLEIN: You know, I just can't get over Rush Limbaugh. Boy—you know, people who live in glass pillboxes shouldn't throw spitballs, right? I mean, this is the guy—the guy least in the country who should be criticizing an ad like this, given his own history of addiction.

And I got to say that, you know, for the vice president of the United States to legitimize a guy like Rush Limbaugh is every bit as bad as all those Democrats who went out to Las Vegas to kiss the ring of the Daily Kos and the left-wing bloggers. I mean, can't we—can't we just stop this crap?

Now, anyone who has read Kos for more than once knows that comparing him to Limbaugh is ridiculous. But even if it wasn't, surely what the vice president of the United States does matters more than what some Democratic politicians do.

False balance in the media is a funny thing, though. It tends to work in only one direction: to make a Republican lapse look less significant. If the story is about, say, Hillary Clinton and her marriage the writers never feel an urgent need to poke at the marriages of wingnut politicians for the sake of some similar balance.

So what is behind this odd phenomenon? The fear of wingnuts, pretty much. They are in power and they are always ready to blame the media for being too liberal. Sadly, the solution to this may necessitate that we become as vicious as the right. We, too, may have to start nipping at the heels of the journalists, to create a different kind of balance, the balance of harassment.

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Uncovered Meat 



This is what Australia's Mufti, Sheik Taj Aldin Alhilali, has called women who do not wear the hijab or stay at home if uncovered:

Sheik Alhilali's comments were delivered in a Ramadan sermon to 500 worshippers in Sydney last month, a newspaper report said.

He blamed women who "sway suggestively" and who wore makeup and no hijab (Islamic scarf) for sexual attacks.

"If you take out uncovered meat and place it outside on the street, or in the the garden or in the park, or in the backyard without a cover, and the cats come and eat it ... whose fault is it, the cats or the uncovered meat," he said.

"The uncovered meat is the problem.

"If she was in her room, in her home, in her hajib[sic?], no problem would have occurred."

Hmm. Not very appetizing, are we? I'm not quite certain if the comments are intended to apply to all Australian women or only to Australian Muslim women. It's relevant to know of the two recent gang rapes by Muslim men to understand why this statement has been met with great anger and outrage:

Sheik Alhilali's comments have drawn strong criticism from some federal politicians and the federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward, who said he should be sacked and deported.

"It is incitement to a crime. Young Muslim men who now rape women can cite this in court, can quote this man ... their leader in court," she told the Nine Network.
"It's time we stopped just saying he should apologise. It is time the Islamic community did more then say they were horrified. I think it is time he left."

I once got into a heated debate on another blog about my right to discuss the religious commandments of another religion. The point I had made was that religious people often bring their values out into the public arena and that there they can affect the lives of those who are not of the same religion. And in some instances these effects can take women's rights backwards.

This particular case is a good example of the worries that made me engage in that debate.

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Wednesday, October 25, 2006

On Hen's Teeth and Women Political Columnists 



They are about equally common, it seems. Dana Goldstein has written an interesting piece on the rare sightings of that unusual breed: the argumentative political woman writer. She hooks the story with the recent changes in the New York Times:

Gail Collins stepped down earlier this month as editor of the New York Times opinion pages. If you're concerned about the lack of women in American political discourse, this seems like bad news: Women are losing their representative in what is, arguably, the most powerful post in opinion journalism. What's more, Collins' successor is the consummate male insider, current deputy editor Andrew Rosenthal, son of late Times executive editor A.M. Rosenthal. The generally sorry state of women in the realm of elite opining is evidenced by the fact that when Collins returns to her old columnist's post after a six-month book leave, it will be the first time since her 2001 promotion that the nation's pre-eminent op-ed page will have more than one regular female contributor.

Across the board, women continue to account for only one-quarter of syndicated columnists. Editors say up to 80 percent of submissions to newspaper op-ed pages are penned by men, and the gender disparity worsens when the topic is politics. At four major liberal political magazines (The American Prospect, The Nation, The New Republic, and the Washington Monthly), a cursory survey of mastheads shows that only about one in every five editorial staffers are women, and just a single top editor, The Nation's Katrina vanden Heuvel.

So although Collins' tenure has been eulogized in the pages of her own newspaper and elsewhere as a feminist watershed, when it comes to increasing the gender diversity in serious American political journalism, Collins' ascension up the masthead amounted to mere symbolism. The two empty columnist spots that opened up during her five year tenure were filled by men, David Brooks and John Tierney. To be sure, it's worth lauding Collins' fine work in arraying a stable of truly diverse and interesting Times Select contributors, from the graphic artist Maira Kalman to the contrarian scholar Stanley Fish -- in fact, it was through the guest columns and blogs behind the Times Select subscription wall that Collins truly did bring more women into the fold, including Slate legal expert Dalia Lithwick; the class-conscious Barabara Ehrenreich; Perfect Madness author Judith Warner; and Pulitzer Prize winning biographer Stacy Schiff. But even these women seem to be tokens. Most of the time, they haven't covered horserace electoral politics, the Iraq War, weapons proliferation, the anti-immigration fence, or any of the other hardball national political topics that op-ed pages prioritize in this time of wars and midterms. (Lithwick is an important exception. Someone offer that woman a higher profile job, pronto.)

Pardon me while I go and gag a little. I'm ever so slightly allergic to any mention of the brothers-under-the-skin Brooks and Tierney, you may know. Did Collins really shift through an enormous slush pile at the Times, in desperate search for good female voices, only to end up happily clutching a piece by one of these guys to her chest instead? Did she run around the office, shouting "Heureka! I've spotted the Great Columnists of this generation!" That would make a good opening scene for a movie.

To return to Goldstein's article, I'm fascinated by the statement that up to eighty percent of all submissions to op-ed pages are by men and that this is why there are so few women printed on those same pages. Rarer than hen's teeth, we are. Except that most major op-ed pages don't accept uninvited submissions. Or that's what they tell me right after the bit about my piece having obvious merit. And in general I would question that eighty percent figure, because I alone am responsible for roughly forty percent of all uninvited (and unwanted) submissions to op-ed pages. Not to mention all those letters-to-the-editor which were refused because I have no last name. What is Ofthesnakes, then, if not a last name?

But it's most likely true that women don't send in as many manuscripts. Many women are far too objective and self-critical, and a certain hubris is necessary to get published. It helps to think of yourself as a divine creature, for example. Or a man if being divine is a little too much self-promotion. Just joking, here. About the man part. Still, to learn to accept rejections is the first rule in the game of getting published.

The second one appears to be to write about Real Politics, not girl stuff:

Most of the time, they haven't covered horserace electoral politics, the Iraq War, weapons proliferation, the anti-immigration fence, or any of the other hardball national political topics that op-ed pages prioritize in this time of wars and midterms.

Hardballs... Fascinating how political topics become sexed. Some are important and hard and require sports terms and pictures about killing. Others are less important and soft and gooey and suitable for women to write about. None of this is an attack against Goldstein. She's writing as she sees it, and she sees it correctly. But there is nothing inherently more important about anti-immigration fences than education or health care. Now I really want to write a woman's eye article on one of these hard-testicled topics, a funny one...

But nobody would read that one. That's the impression I draw from this quote:

But then how can we account for Collins' failure to recruit more serious female political writers? Here was a female editor with all the necessary power and the inclination to do so. But as she explained to Sullivan, her hands were tied because she received so few op-ed submissions from women. "The pool is weighted toward men. … Within that, the number of people who are capable of writing 700 words twice a week and making it sound fresh and interesting … that's a very tiny pool."

A tiny, tiny pool and Brooks and Tierney take up most of it already. Besides, it's hard to sound fresh and interesting, twice a week, unless you make up stuff and go all wingnutty. And then there is the toothless hen problem. We should get hens implants.

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How Do Thoughts Ripen? 



Are they like tomatoes, slowly turning red and juicy? Like peaches, suddenly letting go of the branch and tumbling down? Mine are not. My raw thoughts are horrible spiders with sharp jaws and hairy toes, crawling around in my stomach. They will NOT come up to write until they are good and ready, and here I sit, all nauseous.

So I can't write about David Neiwert's misogyny-and-fascism post because my bloody spiders are busy having snacks and arguing each other. I HATE them.

After you read David, go read flea and Amanda, too.

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The Greatest Country On Earth 



Is ranked fifty-third in a global freedom of the press index:

Some poor countries, such as Mauritania and Haiti, improved their record in a global press freedom index this year, while France, the United States and Japan slipped further down the scale of 168 countries rated, the group Reporters Without Borders said yesterday.

The news media advocacy organization said the most repressive countries in terms of journalistic freedom -- such as North Korea, Cuba, Burma and China -- made no advances at all.

The organization's fifth annual Worldwide Press Freedom Index tracks actions against news media through the end of September. The group noted its concern over the declining rankings of some Western democracies as well as the persistence of other countries in imposing harsh punishments on media that criticize political leaders.

...

Although it ranked 17th on the first list, published in 2002, the United States now stands at 53, having fallen nine places since last year.

"Relations between the media and the Bush administration sharply deteriorated after the president used the pretext of 'national security' to regard as suspicious any journalist who questioned his 'war on terrorism,' " the group said.

"The zeal of federal courts which, unlike those in 33 U.S. states, refuse to recognize the media's right not to reveal its sources, even threatens journalists whose investigations have no connection at all with terrorism," the group said.

Lucie Morillon, the organization's Washington representative, said the index is based on responses to 50 questions about press freedom asked of journalists, free press organizations, researchers, human rights activists and others.

But of course we can ignore such reports. Because they must be tainted by leftiness.
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Via Rorschach.

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Gibson's Warning 



If you fear what might happen if the Democrats got into power you will love this video by a host on Fox News. If you like studying political lying and paranoia and such you will like it, too. If you are on dial-up, my apologies. You missed nothing of importance.





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Tuesday, October 24, 2006

The Michael J. Fox Ads 



Michael J. Fox, the actor, has Parkinson's disease. He has made political videos in support of candidates who support stem-cell research. These ads have caused a shitstorm among the wingnuts, because Fox looks so obviously not well in them. Rush Limbaugh, the High Imam of Wingnuttery, was one of the first to express concern:

"I stated when I saw the ad, I was commenting to you about it, that he was either off the medication or he was acting. He is an actor, after all."

Others soon followed suit. Jane Hamsher at Firelake collected some wingnut expressions of outrage into one post. Here is a snippet:

Michael J. Fox has a new ad out in support of Ben Cardin in Maryland. WaPo:

Opponents of embryonic stem cell research who heard about the ad said they found it sad.

"To me, this is a shame that they're exploiting someone like Michael J. Fox for something that the scientists say is not going to do anything," said Douglas Stiegler, executive director of Maryland's Family Protection Lobby.

Steele campaign spokesman Doug Heye agreed, saying he considered the ad "in extremely poor taste."

That would be the same Michael Steele who compared embryonic stem cell research to the holocaust when speaking before a Baltimore Jewish group. Yes he really should be lecturing us all on "poor taste."

The Michael J. Fox ad is designed to appeal to our emotions. It shows what a disease can do to a person. The anti-abortion arguments of the right are also designed to appeal to our emotions. They portray the embryo as a person and they argue that abortion is murder. As Jane points out in the above quote, if showing the symptoms caused by certain medications for Parkinson's disease is in "poor taste", so is the whole program of talking about embryos as babies and about abortion as cold-blooded murder.

Have you noticed how one-sided this use of emotions has been on the reproductive rights debate in the last decade? The anti-choice side has used a wide brush to paint pictures of micro-Americans being butchered by evil and callous sluts for nothing more than their own convenience. But we haven't heard very much from the pro-choice side that would appeal to our emotions and our values of justice and fairness.
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You can see the Fox video here.

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But is she a Hottie? 



The question, it seems, we must ask about Hillary Clinton should she run for the job of the president in 2008 is this: Is she pretty enough to be a politician? Or so his opponent in the race to be the Senator from New York state thinks (from a story last week):


Hillary Clinton's Republican challenger is getting personal and it's not pretty: He says the senator used to be ugly - and speculates she got "millions of dollars" in plastic surgery.

"You ever see a picture of her back then? Whew," said John Spencer of Clinton's younger days.

"I don't know why Bill married her," he said of the Clintons, who celebrated their 31st anniversary this month.

Noting Hillary Clinton looks much different now, he chalked it up to "millions of dollars" of "work" - plastic surgery.

"She looks good now," he said.

Now let's do something very unfeminist. Let's see whether Hillary really is pretty enough for politics by creating a little gallery of pictures of politicians. Here we go:

Here is Bill Frist:





Well, he's slim.

Here is Dennis Hastert:



Well, he's blond. Er, sorta.

Here is the current president of the United States:





I don't know. Is Hillary pretty enough to be in politics?

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More Popcorn, Please 



While we watch this transparent and reliable elections movie:

Oct. 23, 2006 — As if there weren't enough concerns about the integrity of the vote, a non-partisan civic organization today claimed it had hacked into the voter database for the 1.35 million voters in the city of Chicago.

Bob Wilson, an official with the Illinois Ballot Integrity Project — which bills itself as a not-for-profit civic organization dedicated to the correction of election system deficiencies — tells ABC News that last week his organization hacked the database, which contains detailed information about hundreds of thousands of Chicago voters, including their Social Security numbers, and dates of birth.

"It was a serious identity theft problem, but also a problem that could potentially create problems with the election," Wilson said.

A nefarious hacker could have changed every voter's status from active to inactive, which would have prevented them from voting, he said.

"Or we could've changed the information on what precinct you were in or what polling place you were supposed to go to," he said. "So there were ways that we could potentially change the entire online data base and disenfranchise voters throughout the entire city of Chicago."

"If we'd wanted to, we could've wiped the entire database out," Wilson claimed.


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A Fairy Tale: Mouse as the Cat's Tailor 



I looked for this fairytale everywhere because it's extremely useful in understanding the core of the American policy about Iraq and especially the varying reasons given for the U.S. presence in that benighted country. I finally found it, and translated it (with a few liberties) for your enjoyment:

A cat walked along the road carrying a large bolt of cloth under its arm. A mouse going in the other direction asked the cat:"Where are you going, cat?" "To see my tailor," the cat answered. "I need a new coat."

"Let me sew it for you" said the mouse. The cat handed the bolt of cloth over to the mouse who went to work on a coat. (Now, what you need to know here is the fact that the mouse knows nothing about tailoring.)

A week later the cat came to pick up his new coat, but the mouse said:"Er, the coat didn't quite work out, but I could make you a nice pair of pants instead." The cat agreed, though reluctantly.

A week later the cat came to pick up his new pants, but the mouse said:" Er, the pants didn't quite work out, but I could make you a nice vest instead." The cat agreed, though reluctantly.

A week later the cat came to pick up his new vest, but the mouse said:"Er, the vest didn't quite work out, but I could make you a nice cap instead." The cat agreed, though reluctantly.

A week later the cat came to pick up his new cap, but the mouse said:"Er, the cap didn't quite work out, but I could make you a pair of mittens instead." The cat agreed, though reluctantly.(Yes, I know. The cat is stupid.)

A week later the cat came to pick up his new mittens, but the mouse said:"Er, the mittens didn't quite work out, but I could make you a handkerchief instead." The cat agreed, though very reluctantly.

A week later the cat came to pick up his new handkerchief, but the mouse didn't have it made and neither was there any cloth left at all. So the cat ate the mouse, and ever since that time cats have hated mice.


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No Exceptions 



When I was very young I read a book set in Ireland. The heroine's mother got pregnant, became ill and was allowed to die even though her life could have been saved by an abortion. The heroine was left an orphan. That substory stuck to my mind as an example of how horrible life once used to be. But change is not always an arc of justice nor is progress linear. Now women in Nicaragua can really live the story of the novel. Or rather die it:

A Nicaraguan parliamentary committee has approved draft legislation to ban all abortions, including in cases where the mother's life is at risk.

The legislation will now be debated at a national assembly hearing before a final vote next week.

If the law is passed, doctors carrying out abortions could face up to 30 years in prison.

At present, abortion is only permitted in Nicaragua in instances where the life of the mother is in danger.

The call for a complete ban has mainly come from the Roman Catholic and evangelical churches.

The bill - which is widely expected to be approved - has come amid campaigning for the country's presidential election in November.

A woman's life is worth less than an embryo or a fetus, and a rape is allowed to kill her if she gets ill while pregnant from the rape. And this is what churches want.

Imagine similar diligence in other fields of life. Fathers would be given thirty years in prison for smoking in the same room as their children, for example. Or a parent refusing to donate a kidney to a child who desperately needs it would be beheaded. Well, we can't imagine such diligence as adults in general are not viewed as dispensable as paper cups.

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Monday, October 23, 2006

No Joy in Mudville 






I have a book filled with nothing but different versions of this baseball poem, and it's used as the title here for the simple reason that it makes about as much sense as many other things that are written about American politics every single day. Who the Casey is who struck out (in the poem) is up to you to decide. But I want to use this feeble and long-winded device to make the point that in some ways America has already struck out, despite its evident military superiority, in Iraq, and that the Democrats struck out when Alito became a Supreme:

WASHINGTON - The Senate all but guaranteed Samuel Alito's confirmation as the nation's 110th Supreme Court justice Monday, shutting down a last-minute attempt by liberals to block the conservative judge's nomination with a filibuster.

Republican and Democratic senators on a 72-25 vote agreed to end their debate, setting up a Tuesday morning vote on his confirmation to replace retiring moderate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.

With at least 57 votes committed to Alito — 53 Republicans and four Democrats — approval by majority vote in the 100-member Senate is now seemingly assured.

Add the fairly young and hale Roberts to the bullpen and what kind of a game are we going to get for the next generation or two in the legal baseball? A game in which women and blacks are going to be called out at every base, a game in which corporations will hit home runs and there is no further umpire to complain to that they didn't actually manage to make a hit at all, or a game in which the Christian fundamentalist god is going to work as the ultimate umpire.

"Activist" judges are going to get quite a new definition in this team of Supremes. It will refer to people who wish to take us back to the time before there even was a United States of America in terms of a lot of human rights and to the time of the robber barons in terms of the person rights of corporations.

I don't think that this is overly cynical. In some ways the progressives have already lost the most important battles of all, over the Supreme Court appointments. It's hard to get excited over them, as there is nary a breast in sight, and it's hard to see why it might matter who wears those black dressing-gowns. But that's who adjusts the blueprints of our lives, who decides if we can get compensated for a wrong done against us, who decides if we can sue a vast corporation and have any kind of fair chance of winning. If we can have habeas corpus over our own bodies or if it's perfectly legal for us to just disappear one lonely and windy night, never to be seen again.

So I think the Democrats struck out badly. And I have no joy right now, whatever might happen in the midterm elections.
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Thanks to Woody Guthrie's Guitarron for the link. He blogs here. This post is an exercize in writing politics as sports. Let's see if it makes me look good...

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Today's Minor Bad News 



Minor, because worse news are bound to come from Iraq. Still, this is not something I wanted to read so early in the morning:

President George W. Bush said Republicans can hold their congressional majority by focusing on national security and the economy, and that he will return to overhauling Social Security as a top domestic priority for his last two years in office.

Bolds mine. This is bad news, because "overhauling" in Republicanese means the same thing as "getting rid of".

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On Motherhood, French Style 



I found this article via BitchPhD but for some reason I can't link directly to the post on her blog:

When the municipal day-care center ran out of space because of a local baby boom, the town government gave Maylis Staub and her husband $200 a month to defray the cost of a "maternal assistant" to care for their two children.

When Staub delivered twins last December -- her third and fourth children -- the nation not only increased their tax deductions and child allowances, the government-owned French train system offered 40 percent discounts off tickets for the parents and the children until they reach their 18th birthdays.

"The government favors families a lot," said Staub, 35, a project manager for a French cellphone company. "They understand that families are the future. It's great for us."

...

France heavily subsidizes children and families from pregnancy to young adulthood with liberal maternity leaves and part-time work laws for women. The government also covers some child-care costs of toddlers up to 3 years old and offers free child-care centers from age 3 to kindergarten, in addition to tax breaks and discounts on transportation, cultural events and shopping.

This summer, the government -- concerned that French women still were not producing enough children to guarantee a full replacement generation -- very publicly urged French women to have even more babies. A new law provides greater maternity leave benefits, tax credits and other incentives for families who have a third child. During a year-long leave after the birth of the third child, mothers will receive $960 a month from the government, twice the allowance for the second child.

The French government has been supporting childbearing in similar ways for quite a long time, long enough for the cultural ideas of motherhood to have changed:

"I don't know if the French system encourages women to have more children," said Barbeyrac, whose husband is a documentary filmmaker. "But people don't stop having children because of money concerns."

Maylis Staub agrees. Staub, who is married to a lawyer, returned to work in August. Instead of using the government-supported day-care centers, she hired a nanny -- subsidized by tax breaks on part of the nanny's salary -- to care for her 10-month-old twins, Quitterie and Hermine.

When both women's twins reach 3 years of age, they will qualify for the free government preschool programs that most French children attend until kindergarten.

"The child-care system in France is very well thought out," said Staub, sitting on a sofa on a recent Saturday afternoon with feverish 8-year-old Margaux on one side, fidgety 6-year-old Jules on the other, and one of the twins on her lap. "Everything is organized to make mothers' lives easier."

The French system also fosters different attitudes about working mothers. French working moms say they feel far less guilt than friends in the United States or Europe because French society recognizes children are well cared-for while mothers are at work.

I would add that the lower levels of maternal guilt apply to some other European countries, too, though not to Britain, and the rationale is very similar. Though I'm not sure if other countries could state that "everything is organized to make mothers' lives easier."

That certainly is not a priority in the United States.

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On Men and Mice? 



Sara Robinson on Orcinus has written about the recent school killings of girls and earlier similar shootings, including the Montreal massacre. After listing many of these crimes, she writes:

Something is not right with the boys. Something in the way Americans look at males and manhood has gone sour, curdling into to a rank, toxic, and nasty brew that is changing the entire flavor of our culture. Men everywhere seem to be furious. Some turn it outward against women, against society, against the institutions that no longer seem to nurture them. Some turn it inward against themselves, putting their energies into bizarre self-destructive fantasy lives centered around money, violence, and sex. Some, more disenchanted than angry, check out entirely, abdicating any interest in making commitments or contributions to a family, a profession, or a community to spend their lives as perpetual Lost Boys. Together, all this misdirected, destructive energy has become a social, cultural, and political liability that we can no longer afford to ignore.

Interesting, though I'm not sure what the evidence is of this widespread anger amongst men. But assuming it does exist, what should we do about it? Robinson's answer, after pointing out the feminist-induced changes in the Western society:

But maybe what we are seeing here is a loose end, a leftover bit of unfinished business that hasn't even begun to be addressed yet. Maybe, for the men, the process of re-creating their place in our culture has hardly even started -- and their confidence in the enterprise is far less certain. While the shift has generally worked out well for men who had the education and resources to process and adapt to it, there are apparently a great many men who are still deeply grieving the loss of our widely-shared traditional assumptions about what makes a man, and what men are supposed to contribute to the larger society.

Without those assumptions to give their lives structure and meaning, these guys are drifting -- not sure how they fit in, or what they're supposed to contribute, or what separates the men from the boys in this rearranged new world. And some of them, as we've seen here, are drifting off in very dangerous directions as they try to express a little manhood in a world where it doesn't seem to mean much any more.

The right wing has very aggressively stepped forward with all kinds of answers to salve their souls. The military. NASCAR. Promise Keepers. The Boy Scouts. And, more ominously, the KKK and the militias and the Minutemen. The conservative Cult of Maleness is full of tradition and ritual, conformity and hierarchy, the stuff of which male cultures have always been made. (Social psychologists now think the last two are actually a direct function of testosterone. In other words, men can't help acting that way: it's hormonal.) Say what you will about all this puffed-up patriarchal posturing, but the fact remains: these made-for-men bonding ops seem to be channeling some powerful energy, and fulfilling some yawning emotional needs.

The left, on the other hand, hasn't given them much at all. And we probably won't be able to until we finally come around to admitting that men and women are different -- perhaps not to the acute degree that the traditional sterotypes once enforced so strictly, but also not as superficially as the forced androgyny of liberal culture has tried to pretend. We come equipped with different physiology and different hormone sets; and we still get different messages from the culture about gender expectations. Denying that has led to some widespread assumptions and social choices that have been unfair to both men and women. It has also brought us to this impasse where so many men are disengaging from the common good altogether, because they don't believe there's any upside in it for them.

All sorts of odd thoughts are dancing in my head now. Here's one: Senseless murders of the other sex work, if the intention is to get the sex of the murderers more attention, resources and power. Why didn't feminists figure that out in the 1960s and 1970s? Damn.

And another one: "And some of them, as we've seen here, are drifting off in very dangerous directions as they try to express a little manhood in a world where it doesn't seem to mean much any more." Manhood not mean much? Not much, unless you count making more money and having more power and pretty much running every single country in this world. Not much, unless you count having your birth greeted with great relief that you were not a girl in lots of countries. Not much, unless you live in one of those countries where shariah gives you many more rights than you would have as a female. Not much, unless you count pretty much running every organization of any importance and being an expert in almost every single field, including the fields of child rearing and cooking! Not much, unless you want to be a priest in the Catholic church. And so on.

And here's yet another one: If I can't be on top in this society of ours I'm just going to sign off or buy a gun and start target-shooting in the nearest school. So you better let me be on top. A society that doesn't give me all I want is one in which I see no upside, and I might as well disengage altogether.

And one more thought: Hey, Echidne! Don't forget that this is a patriarchy. Only in a patriarchy can a story start with listing the many deaths of women and end up pretty much blaming it on men not being allowed to be Men, meaning the traditional position of men as obviously more valued and more entitled members of the society than those womb-men down there. (And yes, I know that Robinson didn't actually say that, but that's how my inner feminist reads the conclusions most people will draw from the post.)

So I got a little angry here. My bad. But I haven't gone out and shot anybody, so you can safely ignore my anger. No need to give me adulthood rites or a hierarchy or conformity or traditions or even a gun. Both Shakespeare's sister and Amanda did this much better, by giving good and polite thoughts on the topic. I guess that leaves me with the nasty blogger role. I don't assume it very often and I don't really want to assume it in opposition to Sara Robinson who is a very intelligent and interesting writer. But something in that post pressed my divine buttons as if she had played the accordion on me.

Let's do a little analysis if the red haze of anger doesn't stop me completely. Take these two sentences:

The left, on the other hand, hasn't given them much at all. And we probably won't be able to until we finally come around to admitting that men and women are different -- perhaps not to the acute degree that the traditional sterotypes once enforced so strictly, but also not as superficially as the forced androgyny of liberal culture has tried to pretend.

My reading of this is that the right is offering young, angry men a return to their golden thrones on patriarchy, while the left is offering them...what? Therapy sessions? Free Brazilian waxing? The opportunity to cry? Is that what androgyny means here? I doubt it, but that's the reason why androgyny is ridiculed: it's seen as femininity, to be forced upon unwilling struggling macho heroes. But a real androgyny would be some sort of a combination of masculinity and femininity, with characteristics of the both. In any case, where I see the need for androgyny is in the laws and rules of the society, as a compromise which allows different types of people to live roughly comfortable lives. Should the left not strive at this?

Robinson wants masculinity to be redefined in a way which would not bring back the old ideas of masculinity as dominance, and she bases this on the argument of inherent differences between men and women. But women and men are not as clearly different from each other as the innateness discussion suggests. I can't think of a single mental or emotional characteristic that a person of either sex couldn't possess. If we take such a characteristic, say, protectiveness, and label it as masculine, what happens to the women who protect others? Are they now seen as masculine? Should we train our daughters to be helpless so that our sons can feel masculine in this way? Where do we draw the line between a human characteristic and a masculine/feminine one?

The main difficulty I have with the whole discussion on the meaning of masculinity is this: It is defined by the absence of femininity. This makes masculinity-definition a zero-sum game, a pushme-pullyou animal: whatever is gathered under the cape of masculinity will not be available for women, and in an extreme case women are left with a very narrow slice of life as theirs, the slice having to do with bedrooms, cradles and kitchens. Courage, independence, honesty, all of these have been viewed as masculine. Or think about what these definitions bring to mind: "A good man". "A good woman." Or how about "Real men don't do dishes?"

See how it is done? This is why I fear the false dualism always introduced by these femininity-masculinity debates. The solution is an obvious one to me, but for some reason very hard to swallow more generally: If we could all first be humans and then secondarily whatever sex etcetera we happen to be, well, this world would be a nicer place, with a lot less tribal exclusions.

The tribal aspect is relevant for these musings even more widely. (See how I have calmed down a little?) I'm beginning to think that quite a few men view being a man as belonging to a tribe of all men, a tribe which leaves women as the outsiders, and that most women don't see being a woman in a corresponding way. That handicaps women, and causes some of us to be stomped down by people we regard as our dearest and nearest.

What is it that the generic "woman" means for these angry (possibly tribal) men of the original post? The source of all their troubles, because she is sexually desirable and yet isn't always willing to spread her legs? The source of all their troubles, because she wasn't a perfect self-sacrificing mother, a perfect self-sacrificing wife? The source of all their troubles, because she's disgusting and bleeds? What is it that makes it so very imperative to define rigidly how not to be one of these frightening creatures called "woman"?

Or is it indeed that the generic "woman" is too powerful, too frightening? She can give birth, so all other powers must be removed from her and labeled masculine? Geez. I'm veering into la-la-land here.

Do you know what I think? I think we shouldn't dive straight into a deep well in search for some rites that would fix the endangered masculinity, not at least without looking at a little more evidence. For example, mass killings of women are rare or nonexistent in Scandinavian countries where feminism is much more rooted than here. Men there don't walk around all angry and tight-jawed. But then those countries haven't lost quite as many blue-collar jobs to outsourcing, yet, and neither do they have a well-funded wingnut party which keeps spouting out stuff about those damned blacks and women getting all the good jobs. They also largely missed out on the Victorian myth-making about femininity and masculinity, whereas we are still struggling with those inherited myths on this continent. More generally, how people "do" masculinity and femininity is very dependent on place and time.

Then there is the media and the images it has created of masculinity as violent. These images are not due to feminism, not even a response to feminism. They are part of the older mythology of masculinity in many cultures. Before we start building jungle drums and boys-only empowerment campsites (however good these might be), maybe we could look into what the media actually teaches about how to be a man, hmh?

Now I'm getting tired, so time to stop. But before I go, notice that hierarchies are listed as an inherent male attribute. Women don't do hierarchies? News to me, though they work a little differently in shedom. Neither men nor women want to be at the bottom rung of a hierarchy, though, and that is the problem with the idea of just letting teenage boys do adulthood ceremonies and get into hierarchical arrangements. The boys at the bottom would then look for something else they could dominate. You can guess who that "something else" might be. Or they might get a gun, and then we'd be back a full circle.
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I learned about the Orcinus post from Coturnix who has promised to put together all the posts responding to it.

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Sunday, October 22, 2006

Halloween Poem 

In memory of A.L.

When dead leaves crackle
Across the ground,
And the moon is large,
And full and round,
You'd best watch out
For the Devil's cat,
He'll cook you up,
In a pot o' fat.
He's iron teeth,
And smokes a pipe
And he'll eat children
Rotten or ripe.

So you'd best watch out
When you're trick or treatin'
It's one wrong step
And you'll be eaten.

1977
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Lie Alert 

Posted by olvlzl

Ah, yes. The Republican lie machine is spitting out a new one, that “Democrats protest at military funerals,”. I read it printed in the letter column of our local Republican owned newspaper, heard it on a radio call-in and have been told that the august Washington Journal allowed a caller to spread it to a national audience without challenge a few days ago. That last one didn’t surprise me one little bit since back last spring Brian Lamb allowed Larry Craig (R-Idaho) to spread a variation on that theme, only instead of Democrats it was anti-war protesters who he claimed were disrupting military funerals. Funny, I’d always figured Fred Phelps for a right winger who put Ann Coulter’s last screed along side the Bible in his pews. But you know how rumors spread.

This is the bread and butter of conservative politics in our country, lies. We have to put a stop to this one because once it has entered into the realm of Republican talking points it will be repeated endlessly on call-ins and told by hate-talk jocks around the country. It will join everything from “Lady Bird Johnson is the half-sister of Coretta Scott King” to “The JS under Roosevelt on the dime is short for Joseph Stalin,”. Nothing is too clearly untrue or too absurd to not be spread for the political benefit of conservatives.

Unnoticed in this festival of falsehoods, it was Judge Karen K. Caldwell, a Bush appointee, who said that a law barring the Phelps style media stunts from marring funerals was “going too far”. I’ll bet you anything that she been declared a dishonorary Democrat.

Larry Craig, well, no surprise that someone living as big a lie as he has his entire life as a right-wing pol would have any trouble telling one that big. Brian Lamb's willingness to allow it might lead some to wonder why.
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For LaHood is an Honorable Man 

Who bears false witness for revenge?

Posted by olvlzl

You remember when the Republican congress railroaded Bill Clinton that they wanted a Republican famous for being fair and decent to drive the train into the station? They came up with Ray LaHood who the cable clack repeatedly assured us was just such a Republican. Look at this little exchange.

Today on Fox News, LaHood said, “I’ll tell you why I did it. The reason I did it was because Jane Harman released the Duke Cunningham - who sat on our Intelligence committee - report.” [ That report, which detailed the misconduct of Cunningham, who is now serving a jail term, was not classified. (my brackets)]

A Fox anchor asked, “So, it’s payback?” LaHood responded, “There are some of us on the other side who can equally play politics, and I’m not afraid to do it.”

So, to get back at Jane Harman for doing something entirely legal LaHood might have denounced an entirely innocent staffer*? If he has the evidence why didn’t he mention it? For those who might choose not to remember, Cunningham was guilty as hell of selling government contracts for his profit at our enormous cost and he’s serving a long jail sentence for doing that.

Barney Frank is said to have once asked Jim Leach “What’s a nice guy like you doing in a party like this,”? Yeah, a party that has held up LaHood as representing the best of its sense of justice. Looks ever more like Joe McCarthy is the real spiritual father of today’s Republican Party.

* But, as the Washington Post notes, the New York Times was interviewing government officials about the NIE for weeks before the story was printed.
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Hey Kid, You Want A Ride In My Bimmer 

Posted by olvlzl

F
or anyone who doubts that teenagers are vulnerable to even the slightly more sophisticated calulations of a really sleazy adult, a detailed article about how Foley operated.

This was going on too long for it to not have been known. I can't believe that these star struck boys didn't tell other people about this. Some maybe, not all of them. And even if they didn't I can't believe that his behavior with the pages wouldn't have sounded alarms, he was acting like a predatory small town car dealer using his BMW as a boy magnet.

"I remember him riding by in his Bimmer and talking about all the cars he got and going down to Florida to take out his yacht," said Kristopher Hart, a page in 1999-2000 who went on to George Washington University and now runs a day spa near the campus. "He was like a little bit of a showman, but he was a great guy."

You ever seen one of these creeps in action? This was obvious.

And contrast that with this:

One female page remembers that she was chastised several years ago -- and a Republican House leadership aide was threatened with firing -- after she met with the aide after work one day in his office, with the door open, to talk about the Bible.

It struck her as unfair. She was one of many girls who watched enviously as Foley surrounded himself with male pages on the House floor.

This might serve as a cautionary message about the dangers of bringing up young girls in ignorance of some of the seamier aspects of life but that's no excuse for the adults who must have been witness to it. This was a clear cover up of a predator with lots of bling and power. As he was stalking and cultivating sixteen-year-olds to harvest later, the Republicans made him deputy whip, one suspects as a reward for his helping steal the election in 2000.

Apparently the rewards of that kind of service include this kind of perk in the Republican controled Congress. Foley wasn't some back bencher who the Republican leadership didn't know.

You might also want to read this account of a gay page.

Update: Molly Ivors has an important post this morning on the same subject. Thanks for pointing out the problem with the link too, Molly. Hope it works this time.
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Too Busy Fearing And Hating To Be Friends 

Posted by olvlzl

Here is a good question raised by Rory O'Connor, why does our media give free advertising to hate groups when they could be focusing on the much more impressive efforts of those who counter hate groups? Maybe in the case he cites from Billings, Montana it is because a display of 10,000 menorahs in the windows of people of many persuasions doesn’t fit in with their theme of what “THE Way-EST” is all about, white, Anglo-Saxon Protestant, ultra-cons, strutting around in postures of rugged individualism. The media, once it fixes on a stereotype doesn’t easily change. Too much work involved. That’s about the most innocuous idea that I’ve come up with to explain it. That westerners might be acting progressively might upset the cowboy myth and they might have to actually do some reporting work.

You would think that such a fine display of anti-hatred would fit in with the happy talk news style but that’s so 70s. These days it’s brainless conservative propaganda presented with fear inducement as a motivation to Worry, be Republican . And there is some disturbing evidence that along with this situation there is reason to expect a rise in violent hatred from the right.

Conservatives have no use for the best of our species. The lesson of conservatives’ activities over the past generation is that they flourish in a climate of irrational fear and resentment. They need people to look on other people as dangers and dross that only the Republican right will protect them from. The idea that there are enough good people in a community to come together and effectively counter the tiny handful of active haters in their midst is anathema to them. It smacks of collective action and who knows where that kind of effort at community betterment might lead. People might find out they actually like their neighbors and the people from across town. They might start thinking of what they can do to improve the lives of their neighbors instead of feathering their gated, locked nests of anxiety and envy.

I know I go on about the media a lot here but that’s because they really are the biggest part of the problem. Americans are media junkies, TV, radio, DVDs, etc. substitute for what used to be a community life. The Republicans over the past twenty years taken just about every opportunity to destroy any community service or fairness requirement that the electronic media had.

Could there be, somewhere in the bowels of media central, a study done that shows that if people got out and interacted with their neighbors it would cut down on TV viewing time and so on the network audience share? Would our media actively attempt to destroy community life in the United States in order to increase their profits? It wouldn’t be surprising if they’d see the country turned into Fahrenheit 415 with mandatory wall screens on in all places all the time if it means they can charge more to advertisers. For the media we’ve got, everything is for sale, your time and eyes more than anything else. They’re the ones who sold the country to the regime pillaging it today.
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Saturday, October 21, 2006

Women Who Plant Trees 

Posted by olvlzl

From: Oxfam Exchange, Fall 2006

Trees not only produce life-sustaining crops like avacados and bananas, but they also provide much-needed shade for coffee and other staple plants, and they prevent erosion- which means that trees are a key to economic growth and a greener world By Chris Hufstader and Andrea Perera

Mozambique:
In the misty hills hear the Zimbabwe border, a small group of women review the plans for the nursery in their village, Mukudu. “The hills are steep here, and we want to control erosion. So we are encouraging people to plant fruit trees,” said Justina Nicolao, a 41-year-old mother of six. She and her team are working with the local development group, Kwaedza Simukai Manica Association (KSM), funded by Oxfam. KSM trains workers how to plant and maintain fruit trees, while teaching them how to read and write as part of a “functional literacy” program. Not only has the program helped farmers increase their harvests and reduced erosion, but since women lead the nursery program women are more involved in village affairs and are increasingly seen as leaders in their community.

Ecuador: The indigenous Kichwa people faced a crisis. Once-beautiful Lake Imbakucha was clogged with silt and polluted by chemical runoff from nearby farms. Clean water became scarce. Harvests were dropping off. A project funded by Oxfam launched an effort to replant the hills with trees and grasses to reduce runoff and clear out the streams feeding the lake. Within three years, come communities have doubled the amount of available water, and a network of nurseries is providing employment for women growing trees and plants for organic gardens. Ana Lucia Tocagon, a 20-year-old participant in the project, said that the increase in water was remarkable. “One summer we... had to ration it, with one sector receiving water one day and another sector the following day. Now we have water all day.”

This Fall edition isn’t up on their website but there is a lot of other information about Oxfam America’s programs. An impressive number promote women’s empowerment through agricultural and environmental projects.
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Blog War Note 

Hadn't meant to bring up again the, uh, well, blog war that began with one of the earlier guest posts I did on this blog but that was before I read Echidne's little post last night.

There is actually that curious bit of flame an anonymous person sent me earlier in the week, taunting me over the publication on line of the complete works of Charles Darwin. The assumption is , despite literally everything I've ever posted on the subject and any rational inference from anything else I've ever posted, that I'm a creationist. Goes to show you what depending on secondary sources, of the most dubious reliabilty, can lead to. Friends always go with primary sources when possible, taking into account that evolutionary science has developed more than slightly since Darwin's death.

Now to really blow the minds of my antagonists and as a model of great debating style let me also call your attention to one of my favorite writers, one of Darwin's friends, Thomas Huxley. Especially look at his non-technical writings. They're fun.
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They Want You To Vote In The Dark 

Posted by olvlzl

One of the odder things in the weeks before the election is the general agreement among our establishment, including the press, that the Baker-Hamilton findings shouldn’t be released now because they might have an effect on the election. What ever could the reason for that be. Are they afraid that the findings won’t reflect reality, don’t they trust these two stalwarts of the establishment to tell the truth and so deceive the voters? If they don’t have any confidence in their material then that would certainly justify not publishing. If that’s it then how do they feel confidence in hinting at a release just after the election? If they have failed in collecting the information they should resign and announce their inability.

But that is certainly not their reason. Whatever these two release would be treated to the full measure of awed reverence that any product of the DC power structure is given. If it was pure bilge it would be treated that way and it is certain that whatever gets published will not be entirely devoid of facts. So it must be something else.

This reluctance to give The People information about the most important issue facing the country today so they can use it during the election is proof of something quite disturbing. It is a corrupt deal between the power elite and the media. It’s nothing less than a repudiation of government by the People. Baker saying that he wants "to take this thing out of politics" makes that clear. Politics is the process of self-government, it’s not some indecent act. Politics, ultimately, is the only justification for the public life of Baker and Hamilton, the only reason that anyone should pay attention to whatever this group of eminent people produce.

Our elites don’t believe that before they perform the most important act of government, casting an informed vote, The People are entitled to the best possible information. This is just another symptom of the fact that the elite doesn’t think the people have any business governing themselves. The facts of the War in Iraq are absolutely the kind of thing that a Voter should use in making up their mind.

If Baker and Hamilton are afraid that they will be criticized, too bad. This isn’t all about them. If they have reliable information about this war they have no right to keep it hidden until after The People could have used it. Jefferson was right, a government is only legitimate if it acts with the consent of the governed. An uninformed public cannot give legitimate consent, the government that results from ignorance cannot be legitimate, it will produce a disaster.

How dare these two hacks withhold any facts from the Voters. How dare the alleged news media endorse that decision. The media purports to exist for the purpose of informing the People so they can govern but here we see their real purpose, to shield the elite from information that could result in their replacement. Anyone calling themselves journalists who have supported this decision should be known for what they are, shills for secret government.
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Friday, October 20, 2006

Elections, Schmelections 



News from Maryland:

The FBI is investigating the possible theft of software developed by the nation's leading maker of electronic voting equipment, said a former Maryland legislator who this week received three computer disks that apparently contain key portions of programs created by Diebold Election Systems.

Cheryl C. Kagan, a former Democratic delegate who has long questioned the security of electronic voting systems, said the disks were delivered anonymously to her office in Olney on Tuesday and that the FBI contacted her yesterday. The package contained an unsigned letter critical of Maryland State Board of Elections Administrator Linda H. Lamone that said the disks were "right from SBE" and had been "accidentally picked up."

...
The disks delivered to Kagan's office bear labels indicating that they hold "source code" -- the instructions that constitute the core of a software program -- for Diebold's Ballot Station and Global Election Management System (GEMS) programs. The former guides the operation of the company's touch-screen voting machines; the latter is in part a tabulation program used to tally votes after an election.

Three years ago, Diebold was embarrassed when an activist obtained some of its confidential software by searching the Internet. The company vowed to improve its security procedures to prevent another lapse.

Popcorn. I need some popcorn. And a good seat. Too late for anything more.

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On Blog Wars 



I don't do those, usually. Partly because I'm not smart enough to come out on top, but mostly because I find my time better spent fighting other battles. It's sad, in a way, because a good blog war is a thing of beauty and loads of fun, too. But the outcomes tend not to be good for political movements or for the people who get trampled in these arguments.

Well, ok. I don't do blog wars because I'm a cowardly goddess.

Why am I even writing about this?

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Scary Dog Blogging 



In anticipation of Halloween, I present you Henrietta the Hound:




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On the Statistics Primer Posts 



I stayed up a few nights trying to think of a way to give the gist of the statistics used in surveys without lying or doing violence to the theories. I didn't end up with any very brilliant ways of doing that. Not very surprising, of course, but then I always try to reinvent the wheel.

Those of you, my dear readers, who are statistics geeks can see where I skate on a fairly thin eye and get off just before the ice cracks. But I think I avoided any outrageous lies. I hope I avoided them.

The problem is in approaching the whole field as someone who hates statistics might do. Statistics is actually not difficult, but it can be tedious, and that turns a lot of people off. So I tried not to be tedious but that came at a cost of being a bit eellike. If you want a slower pace and firmer instruction, try one of the online statistics courses. Like this one.

The final post in this series will talk more about the confidence intervals in surveys in situations where the study doesn't use simple random sampling (like drawing names from a hat). It will also return to some other things that you should worry about in reading survey results.

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Statistics Primer. Part 5: Constructing a Confidence Interval for the Sample Proportion 



At this point it's probably not possible just to jump in and read the posts separately unless you've had statistics already. If you are a statistical virgin, go and read the four earlier posts in this series first. The links to them are at the bottom of this post.

As a reminder, our goal is to learn to understand confidence intervals.* For example, political polls might say that Bush's approval is 36%, give or take 3%. Or a poll might tell us that 52% of people prefer candidate A over B, give or take 6%. Where do these numbers come from?

The previous post started the necessary explanations. The 52% or 36% figure is simply the proportion of people in the poll (the sample) who expressed a certain opinion. The other stuff, about giving or taking three or six percent, has to do with the sampling distribution of this sample proportion, and its size depends on the sample size (how many people were asked) and the inherent variability in the population (and in the sample).

Put another way, the 36% Bush approval rate, give or take 3%, is really an interval ranging from a low value of 33% to a high value of 39%. It's centered on the sample proportion and extends a certain distance in each direction from it. Like this, visually:

I------sample proportion------I

Or like this, for a smaller interval:

I---sample proportion---I

We call this interval a confidence interval when its length is derived from the sampling distribution for the sample proportion. Think of it this way: You are a blind-folded archer shooting funny kinds of arrows at a dartboard. The tip of each arrow looks like a staple or like the confidence interval I have drawn above, and you are to shoot lots of these staples to the dartboard. After you finish, you can take your blindfold off and go and check how many of your staples actually cover the bull's eye on the board. If you used really, really wide staples (say, a mile wide), you will cover the bull's eye every time, but you haven't really shown any precision at all. On the other hand, if you use very narrow staples you are going to miss the bull's eye a lot. The very wide staples allow us to be very confident in the knowledge that we have hit the bull's eye. The narrow staples would give us a lot more precision but less confidence. Some sort of a compromise is needed to get both.

The compromise statisticians use is like tying the staple length to the size of the dartboard, very roughly. In our case the dartboard is the sampling distribution for the sample proportion, and our knowledge of that sampling distribution allows us to specify a level of confidence first and then to make a staple of the necessary length to get that level of confidence.

The task is made much simpler by one remarkable result in statistics, called the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). This theorem shows that the sampling distribution of the sample mean, and the sample proportion, too, has one particular form if the sample we use is large enough**. Thus, if we learn the probabilities of this one distribution we can apply them to a whole lot of problems. Not all problems, mind you. But a large chunk of the more common problems.

This probability distribution is called the normal distribution or the Gaussian distribution (by its inventor) or the Bell Curve. The last name comes from its shape, as the distribution looks like a jingle bell viewed from the side. It has all sorts of neat characteristics.*** For example, the mean, the mode and the median are all identical and fall right below the peak of the bell. The two sides of the distribution are mirror images of each other. Here is a picture of the normal distribution****:





Ignore the blackened area for the time being. It's not part of the picture but a way of looking at probability calculations.

Note that there is an infinite number of these distributions, one for each possible value of the mean and the standard deviation, so some will be further to the right or to the left, and some will be fatter than others. To make things easier, statisticians usually show one specific normal distribution, called the standard normal distribution (as I have done above), and calculate the probabilities from that. The standard normal distribution has zero as its mean and one as the length of its standard deviation. So the horizontal axis here can be viewed as measuring the variable (say the sample proportion) in units equal to the length of the standard deviation of the sampling distribution. We can apply the standard normal distribution probabilities to any normally distributed variable by using linear transformations, but it's not necessary to go there right now.

The normal distribution is a probability distribution. For every possible value of the variable on the horizontal axis (say, the sample mean or the sample proportion) the area under the curve shows the corresponding probabilities. That's what the blackened area in the above picture demonstrates: the probability that this variable has a value between the mean and half a standard deviation above it. Note that the total area under the curve but above the horizontal axis equals one or 100% because it's certain that something happens and the values here cover all feasible ones.

Now, the normal distribution has certain very nice characteristics, shown in the picture below:





(This picture uses the general Greek letters mu and sigma for the mean and standard deviation of whatever distribution we are looking at. Mu is that thing which looks like the letter u with a long tail in the front. Sigma is the letter which looks like number six. If this bothers you, just pretend that the mu is zero and the sigma one)

The percentage areas marked in the picture are probabilities. For any normally distributed variable the following is true: If we move two standard deviations up from the mean and two standard deviations down from the mean the interval we have created corresponds to the probability of 0.954 (add up all the areas under the curve between the two chosen values on the horizontal axis) . Likewise, if we move three standard deviations up from the mean and three standard deviations down from the mean the interval we have created corresponds to the probability of 0.998. (What about trying to find an interval corresponding to probability 1 or certainty? Here we meet a slight snag as the normal distribution has tails which go on to infinity, so such an interval would range from minus infinity to plus infinity.)

See what I'm getting to here? Suppose that I wanted to find an interval length in the sampling distribution of a sample proportion which corresponds to the probability of 0.95. How many standard deviations would I need to go out from the mean towards each tail to get an area of that size under the curve? We already know that two standard deviations gives us a fairly good rough approximation of it, but if I want to find the exact value I can get it from precalculated tables in statistics books and even on the net. The value we need is 1.96 standard deviations. In a similar manner the number of standard deviations each side of the mean that would give us the probability of 0.99 is 2.576.

Ok. I'm skipping quite a lot of mathematics here and some statistics, too, but I hope that the basic idea is clear, and that idea is that we can create the confidence interval (the staple in the arrow example) using this way of thinking:

First, calculate the sample proportion.

Second, calculate the standard deviation of the sample proportion. It is found as follows: Multiply the sample proportion by its complement and divide this product by the sample size. Then take the square root of the result.*****

Third, multiply this standard deviation of the sample proportion by the numerical value corresponding to a given significance level in the standard normal distribution. For example, if we use 0.95 as the significance level, then we multiply the standard deviation of the sample proportion by 1.96

Fourth add the product from the third step to the sample proportion to get the upper limit of the interval. Subtract it from the sample proportion to get the lower limit of the interval.

The traditional choices for confidence levels are 0.90, 0.95 or 0.99, or the same in percentages(90%, 95% or 99%). What do these mean? Return to the arrow-shooting example. Suppose that you are blind-folded and shoot a staple-tipped arrow a hundred times to the dartboard. You then take the blindfold off and check the results. If you used a 0.95 staple, you should find at most five staples totally missing the bull's eye. If you used a 0.99 staple, at most one out of the hundred arrows should have missed the bull's eye.

Translated into statistics, what this means in the case of a 0.95 confidence level is that if the same study design was used a hundred times to draw samples of identical size, and if a confidence interval was created from each sample proportion, at most five of these confidence intervals would not include the true unknown population proportion.

Note that the interval is wider if we want to be more confident. It is also wider if the standard deviation of the sample itself is large or if the sample size is small. All this makes sense, as we should have a wider interval when there is more variation in the sample and/or when the sample is smaller.

We are going to finish this post with an example. But before that I need to talk about a concept which you often see when polls are discussed: The margin of error or MOE. For example, a poll might tell you that the margin of error is plus/minus three percent. If the poll consisted of only one single question with yes-no type answers, the MOE would equal the confidence interval as we have calculated it here, i.e., it would give us the amount to add to and subtract from the sample proportion.

But most polls have several questions. Clearly, the confidence intervals can't all be the exact same length. So what is the MOE in these cases?

It tends to be the longest possible confidence interval we could get in a particular study. Usually the studies use the 0.95 level of confidence for getting this. Think about the calculations I outlined above. If we have fixed the confidence interval at 0.95 and if we have a sample of a given size, what could we change to make the interval as long as possible? Suppose that we ignore the actual value of the sample proportion we get in any particular question and just replace it by 0.5. It turns out that this value makes the standard deviation of the sample proportion as large as it ever could be. So using this trick allows pollsters to give us just one margin of error for the whole study, when in reality each question has a different confidence interval. But this MOE is most likely an overstatement. Viewed from a different angle, the only real information it gives us is the sample size (as both the confidence level and the proportion used in the calculations are set to equal certain constants). The sample size is usually provided separately in any case.

Time for an example. It's from a recent poll, to be found here. The MOE for the whole study is given as plus or minus 3.1%. Let's pick one specific question from this poll, the one where the 1006 respondents are asked if they approve or disapprove of the Congress. The percentage numbers are as follows:
Approve 16%
Disapprove 75%
Not sure 9%

I started by taking out the people who were not sure. What polls do about this lot varies, but it's usually best to omit them from the analyses. That left me with 915 answers and the approval rate within this sample of 915 of 17.6%. The disapproval percentage is now 82.4%. I want to make a confidence interval for the disapproval rate among those respondents who express strong opinions. So the first step is to calculate the sample proportion, which is 0.824. The second stage is to calculate the standard deviation of this sample proportion. We find it by first multiplying 0.824 by 0.176, then dividing the product by 915 and finally by taking the square root of the whole thing. This gives me 0.0126. Next, I find how much to add to and subtract from the sample proportion to get an interval by multiplying 0.0126 with 1.96, the number of standard deviations that is associated with the 0.95 level of confidence. The result is 0.0247, or 2.47%. The 0.95 level confidence interval is then found by adding this to 0.824 and then by subtracting it from 0.824. We get, after rounding, an interval from 0.85 to 0.80.

A couple of comments: First, I did a lot of the calculating in my head so double-check. Second, note the difference between the 2.47% here and the MOE for the whole study which is given as 3.1%. The difference comes from the fact that the sample proportion here is quite far from 0.5, and so the standard deviation of the sample proportion is quite a bit smaller than the maximum possible value for this. Third, I claim no special significance for the choice I made about those who are not sure. You could experiment by putting them into the "approve" group or the "disapprove" group and see what happens to the results.




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* I talk about finding confidence intervals for the sample proportion in this post, but everything applies to the sample mean just handily, except for the exact formula of the standard deviation of the sample mean which for the sample mean is just the sample standard deviation divided by the sample size.
**The CLT says something more than this. Google it if you are interested. Usually the "large enough" a sample is quite small, though prudent people want the sample size to be at least thirty. For binary data of the type we get with polls the requirement is that there are at least five answers counted as 1 and five answers counted as 0.
***It is a continuous distribution, though, and that means that the sample distribution of the sample proportion is only approximately normal, because we are using a continous distribution to approximate a discrete one. It's not very hard to find the exact sampling distribution for the sample proportion and to use that to find the probabilities needed. This is what is done with small sample studies anyway. But the extra work is unnecessary as the probabilities start equaling those we get from the normal distribution when the sample gets bigger.
****The vertical axis is marked probability density in the picture, because continuous probability functions are called probability density functions in geeky company.
*****This is the shorthand formula for the standard deviation of the sample proportion. In an earlier post I used a pedagogical aid to get the value, but this formula gives it much faster.
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You can find the earlier posts in this series here: Part1, Part2, Part3 and Part4.

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The Curious Case Of The Wholesale Firings 



That is about all I have so far on this story:

The House Appropriations Committee has let go about 60 private contractors who made up most of an investigative unit that was auditing billions of dollars in government spending, including the $62 billion federal relief package for Hurricane Katrina, the panel's spokesman said Thursday.

The investigators, attached to the committee's Surveys and Investigations division, were released during the past week, committee spokesman John Scofield said. He said that the quality of the unit's work had been questioned by leaders of the Republican-controlled committee, including some Democrats, but he declined to say who.

The shake-up — which leaves only 16 full-time employees in the investigative unit — comes about a year after the Appropriations Committee's chairman, Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Calif., launched the Katrina review by saying the unit would "conduct a wide-ranging assessment and analysis of disaster spending." At the time, Lewis said the unit had a tradition of "comprehensive" reporting

Where are you, Sherlock Holmes? I need some help here.

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Thursday, October 19, 2006

We All Envy You 






From the New York Times:

President Vladimir V. Putin has a penchant for making pithy, acerbic, sometimes coarse comments. On Wednesday a microphone inadvertently left on during a brief appearance with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel captured his views on the sex scandal involving Israel's president.

...

Kommersant's version — citing the remarks in Russian — was cruder. "He turned out to be quite a powerful man," the paper's reporter in the official Kremlin pool, Andrei Kolesnikov, quoted Mr. Putin as saying. "He raped 10 women. I never expected it from him. He surprised all of us. We all envy him."

What kind of a feminist analysis should I do on this? That Russia has a long way to go, perhaps? And so does this world?

Perhaps it's adequate to note that Mr. Putin identifies with the rapist and not with the rape victims.
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Mr. Putin gets the Cooties Award, First Class, for this "joke".

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How To Become A Columnist In A Major Newspaper 



You put on your wingnut hat with two large blue, red and white wings and a picture of George Bush inside a large heart in the middle*. Then you take a keyboard, set your tongue in the middle of your mouth and start banging away.

This conclusion I have drawn from a large and careful study of the U.S. media, and from some recent products of this process of picking columnists. Here, for your enjoyment, is Jonah Goldber, a card-carrying wingnut columnist, on the topic of the Iraq war:

The Iraq war was a mistake.

I know, I know. But I've never said it before. And I don't enjoy saying it now. I'm sure that to the antiwar crowd this is too little, too late, and that's fine because I'm not joining their ranks anyway.

In the dumbed-down debate we're having, there are only two sides: Pro-war and antiwar. This is silly. First, very few folks who favored the Iraq invasion are abstractly pro-war. Second, the antiwar types aren't really pacifists. They favor military intervention when it comes to stopping genocide in Darfur or starvation in Somalia or doing whatever that was President Clinton did in Haiti. In other words, their objection isn't to war per se. It's to wars that advance U.S. interests (or, allegedly, President Bush's or Israel's or ExxonMobil's interests). I must confess that one of the things that made me reluctant to conclude that the Iraq war was a mistake was my general distaste for the shabbiness of the arguments on the antiwar side.

It's shabby to favor war that would stop genocides or starvation? What happened to the values-party? Ok, I guess.

Goldberg then continues getting himself further and further into a real mess:

But that's no excuse. Truth is truth. And the Iraq war was a mistake by the most obvious criteria: If we had known then what we know now, we would never have gone to war with Iraq in 2003. I do think that Congress (including Democrats Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Jay Rockefeller and John Murtha) was right to vote for the war given what was known — or what was believed to have been known — in 2003. And the claims from Democrats who voted for the war that they were lied to strikes me as nothing more than cowardly buck-passing.

"If we had known then what we know now." How about not using that silly excuse just once. How about asking instead what we really knew then? How about reminding our wingnutty selves about the situation as it was, about Osama bin missing still being missing, about the war in Afghanistan still unwon, about a zillion other important things that were going on. And we threw away all that and went busily after Saddam Hussein, like children playing war. Without any plan for the war's aftermath. Without anyone with any knowledge about the country we were going to invade. Shia. What is that? Who are the Kurds? Where is the oil? What about the fanatic Islamists which were kept suppressed by Saddam? Nah, let's just create some pictures of the Iraqis giving us flowers and us giving their children candy and let's cut out the children's corpses after the suicide bombers hit them.

But this is not how the wingnut columnists write about the opposition. Nope. The opposition is very stupid, very naive and a fanatic lover of all things communist. Even today.

One day I, too, can become a columnist! When I learn to phrase my conclusions like this:

According to the goofy parameters of the current debate, I'm now supposed to call for withdrawing from Iraq. If it was a mistake to go in, we should get out, some argue. But this is unpersuasive. A doctor will warn that if you see a man stabbed in the chest, you shouldn't rush to pull the knife out. We are in Iraq for good reasons and for reasons that were well-intentioned but wrong. But we are there.

Excuse me while I go and bang my head against the garage door. En route there I will burn all my manuscripts and make myself a wingnut helmet with patriotic streamers.
---
And the jockstrap. Forgot about the jockstrap...

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Olbermann's Most Recent Special Comment 



You can read the transcript and watch the video here. The video is also available here.

Olbermann is single-handedly bringing back that old way of giving speeches, the spine-tingling one. I'm all for it.

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A Moot Point 



I'm learning more and more about the English language via politics. Here is Michael Steele, candidating to be a Senator:

Asked whether he thought Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, Steele said: "What's that got to do with anything? I'm a Senate candidate. My opinion on that is moot," according to the article.

Pressed further, he is quoted as saying: "Do not think you're going to define me on that question; don't even go there. That is nowhere near defining who I am. It's not even a piece of defining who I am. ... Trying to define me on this issue is ludicrous." ("Separate pitches to state Chamber," Baltimore Sun, 10/18/06)

Who cares whether the question defines him? His views on abortion will affect whom he votes into the Supreme Court, and that, in turn, will affect the lives of millions of women in this country. How dare he belittle those women and their lives!

Of course he is a candidate for the anti-abortion brigade. They are spending money on his campaign. I wonder if they know he finds the whole point moot?

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Wednesday, October 18, 2006

On Hos and Manly Seed 



Can you imagine that these topics are in a Republican election ad? I couldn't, either, but they are. The Carpetbagger report has the information:

"Black babies are terminated at triple the rate of white babies," a female announcer in one of the ads says, as rain, thunder, and a crying infant are heard in the background. "The Democratic Party supports these abortion laws that are decimating our people, but the individual's right to life is protected in the Republican platform. Democrats say they want our vote. Why don't they want our lives?"

Another ad features a dialogue between two men.

"If you make a little mistake with one of your 'hos,' you'll want to dispose of that problem tout suite, no questions asked," one of the men says.

"That's too cold. I don't snuff my own seed," the other replies.

"Maybe you do have a reason to vote Republican," the first man says.

An ad about abortion, and the only appearance of a woman is as a voiceless whore. How about that, you Republican values-nuts? And the question of abortion is framed as something black men decide on. "My own seed"!

This is insulting on so many other levels, too. Vomit-inducingly insulting, racist, sexist crap.

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Consumer Discrimination Based on Religion 



Pam Spaulding on Pandagon has written a post about the connections between the pro-life pharmacists' refusal to dispense the contraceptive pill in some localities and these news from Minnesota:

Imagine you're returning from a trip with a bottle of French wine to celebrate your wedding anniversary. At the airport, you drag your bags out to the taxi stand in the cold breeze. As the cab pulls up, you hoist your suitcases, eager to get home.

But when the driver spots your wine, he shakes his head emphatically. The Qur'an prohibits him from accepting passengers with alcohol, he tells you. OK, so you'll take the next cab. But the next driver waves you off, and the next.

Scenes like this have played out hundreds of times at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport over the last few years. About three-fourths of the 900 taxi drivers at the airport are Somali, many of them Muslim. In September, the Star Tribune reported that one flight attendant had been refused by five drivers, because she had wine in her suitcase.

Taxi drivers who refuse a customer, except for safety reasons, must go to the end of the taxi line.

They face a potential three-hour wait for the next fare. Muslim drivers asked for an exemption, and officials of the Metropolitan Airports Commission proposed color-coded lights on cab roofs to indicate whether the driver would accept a passenger carrying alcohol.

I can see the similarities in the two cases. Both the Christian pharmacists and the Muslim cabdrivers insist that their religious preferences should override the needs and desires of their customers, and both insist that this should happen without costing them anything in lost income. I also agree with Pam that this trend should be nipped in the bud, for if we don't do so, what's the consequence? A world where you never know who will refuse to serve you and for what reason.

The article I quoted above makes the same point:

In some other cities, "Chapter Two" has already begun. Muslim cab drivers elsewhere, for example, have refused to transport blind customers with seeing-eye dogs, which they say their religion considers unclean. On Oct. 6, the Daily Mail of London reported that two cab drivers had been fined for rejecting blind customers. In Melbourne, Australia, "at least 20 dog-aided blind people have lodged discrimination complaints" after similarly being refused service, the Herald Sun reported.

In Minneapolis, Muslim taxi drivers have repeatedly refused to transport Paula Hare, who is transgendered, KMSP-TV, Channel 9, reported this month.

...

And what if Muslim drivers demand the right not to transport women wearing short skirts or tank tops, or unmarried couples? After taxis, why not buses, trains and planes? Eventually, in some respects, our society could be divided along religious lines.

"After taxes, why not buses, trains and planes?" In fact, this may already be happening:

A city bus driver who complained about a gay-themed ad got official permission not to drive any bus that carries that ad, according to an internal memo confirmed Tuesday by Metro Transit.

Transit authorities call it a reasonable accommodation to the driver's religious beliefs.

Treating customers in a discriminating manner is nothing new, of course. Blacks are still sometimes refused service in restaurants and young black men may find getting a cab late at night difficult. But these acts of discrimination are against the law. If we make religious discrimination against consumers legal, how long will it be before some church will declare that the separation of the races is a basic doctrine, say? And I can certainly imagine some Muslim cabdrivers refusing to give rides to women who travel without a male guardian.

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My Shallow Thought For The Day 



I have the most excellent commenters. This conclusion is based on reading lots and lots of blog comments all over the blogosphere recently. You really are the cream of the crop.

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Deep Thought Of The Day 



From Digby:

This will, I predict, be the latest fad: bipartisan nothingness. Now that the Republicans have successfully moved the political center so far to the right that they drove themselves over the cliff, we must stop all this "partisan bickering" as if the Democrats have been equally partisan and therefore can ask for and expect the right to meet them halfway, which they never, ever do. That means we must let their most heinous ideas congeal into conventional wisdom, let their criminal behavior go unpunished, clean up the global disaster they've created, do the heavy lifting to fix the deficit they caused. While we're fixing things, they'll count their ill-gotten gains, catch their breath and gear up to trash the place all over again.

Modern bipartisanship can be simply defined as Democrats repeatedly getting taken to the cleaners by Republicans. Until the rules of the game are changed it will remain so whether Democrats are in the majority or not. That pathetic Charlie Brown with the football ritual is what Joe Lieberman is running on and what Joe Klein is angling for with his Blankslate Obama love-fest. (Norquist called it date rape but that's too kind -- the Liebermans and Kleins love being in the spotlight giving wingnuts lapdances. They enjoy every minute of their rightwing orgy --- they just don't want to take responsibility when they turn up with wingnut transmitted diseases.)


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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Sauron and the Hobbit 



A new meme on the Iraq war has been born, courtesy of Rick (the Dick) Santorum. It's based on Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings trilogy in which small and fun-loving hobbits took on the evil power of Sauron and won.

Sauron scanned his realm with an evil eye, called the Eye of Mordor, and Santorum has obviously been reading these anti-Christian books in recent weeks, because he used the books' vocabulary to explain to all of us what is going on with Iraq:

In an interview with the editorial board of the Bucks County Courier Times, embattled Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has equated the war in Iraq with J.R.R. Tolkien's "Lord of the Rings." According to the paper, Santorum said that the United States has avoided terrorist attacks at home over the past five years because the "Eye of Mordor" has been focused on Iraq instead.

"As the hobbits are going up Mount Doom, the Eye of Mordor is being drawn somewhere else," Santorum said. "It's being drawn to Iraq and it's not being drawn to the U.S. You know what? I want to keep it on Iraq. I don't want the Eye to come back here to the United States."

Do you think the United States is well compared to the hobbits? George Bush as a hobbit? Perhaps, but hobbits are not very macho, you know.

It's sad that Santorum finds the flypaper solution a good one, given that we put the flypaper up in someone else's house and now those people are dying in large numbers. I wouldn't think this is very Christian, either. But what do I know, I'm just a pagan goddess.

Most Americans don't like the Iraq war anymore. The most recent poll puts the percentage of those who oppose the war at 64%. More women (70%) than men (58%) oppose the war. Does this mean that all those war opponents want the Eye of Mordor on them?

Well, Bill O'Reilly says that people wouldn't hate this war so much if the evil press hadn't chosen to talk about all those headless corpses whith marks of torture on them found in scattered dumps in Baghdad every morning. Sauron been busy, I guess.
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O'Reilly Knows Best 



Bill O'Reilly is not only a conservative wingnut pundit, he is also an obstetrician. And a gyneocologist. And he knows best, so don't worry your little head over any of that silly women's lib crap:

From the October 11 edition of Westwood One's The Radio Factor with Bill O'Reilly:

O'REILLY: All right, "Culture War" segment. Here we go. Ms. Magazine is running "We had abortions" articles, and they're asking for American women to identify themselves and discuss their abortions that they had. All right, now, you can decide whether that's poor taste, whether that's bad -- to me, it's a very, very personal issue. I don't think I'd want the world to know what I'm doing or on any kind of surgical procedure, but I understand there are people who feel pro-choice is under siege, and they have to step up or whatever. So, I'm kind of on the sidelines on that.

Now, they're asking celebrities. So far, four celebrities have come up and done it -- Amy Brenneman, plays Judging Amy; Kathy Najimy, she was in -- what was that? -- Sister Act movie and Veronica's Closet on TV; Gloria Steinem, of course, the founder of Ms. Magazine; and Carol Leifer's a comedian, Jerry Seinfeld's ex-girlfriend. Anyway, they all said they had abortions, and I guess they're proud; or I don't know what they are.

Anyway, it makes me a little queasy. Since 1973, there have been 40 million legal abortions in the U.S.A., and it's the law of the land, and it may not be the law of the land, unfettered, much longer because the Supreme Court's hearing a whole bunch of stuff. South Dakota, as you know, has voted to outlaw abortions unless the mother's life is in danger, which is never the case, because you can always have a C-section and do those kinds of things. And partial-birth abortion, obviously, is the big, big issue for what the United States Constitution says because you have to protect life, and after 26 weeks, there's life, whether you cede it or not, it's true -- scientifically speaking, of course.

Glad to know that the woman's life is never in danger.

What have we done to deserve Bill O'Reilly? Tell me, and I will atone.

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The Wingnut Nobel Peace Prize 



Goes to.....Sam Walton's ghost! For building the Wal-Mart empire. So says John Tierney in his latest column in that liberal rag, the New York Times:

I don't want to begrudge the Nobel Peace Prize won last week by the Grameen Bank and its founder, Muhammad Yunus. They deserve it. The Grameen Bank has done more than the World Bank to help the poor, and Yunus has done more than Jimmy Carter or Bono or any philanthropist.

But has he done more good than someone who never got the prize: Sam Walton? Has any organization in the world lifted more people out of poverty than Wal-Mart?

My tummy hurts so much from laughing at it. Steve Gilliard took it all much more seriously and gave a proper response:

Wal-Mart doesn't alleviate poverty, it spreads it like a virus.

How? In China and the developing world, it demands greater and greater price savings on factory owners, who have to use repressive methods to keep their employees. It's so bad, the Chinese government has allowed Wal Mart workers to unionize.

In the US, Wal Mart' s predatory pricing forced Rubbermaid to close, and forces other suppliers to ship work overseas to meet Wal Mart's pricing demands.

Every contract, Wal Mart demands greater savings from producers, demanding cost cutting. Most of the brand names sold in Wal Mart are substandard products with the same brand name. Snapper refused to sell to Wal Mart because of that practice.

Wal Mart's low wage policy is the worst in the retail industy, they spend more on commercials than actual health care for their workers. Certainly people in Chicago and Maryland didn't feel that Wal Mart was lifting people out of poverty, having passed bills concerning health care and wages.

Yesss. Add to all this the fact that microlending schemes encourage independence and self-determination and put power into the hands of very ordinary village people, most of them women, by the way, who were earlier quite powerless and often even scorned. Wal-Mart, on the other hand, prefers its workers meek and without other options.

Wal-Mart makes its owners very rich, true. But it doesn't encourage the type of moral and spiritual growth in them as the microlending schemes do to their participants. Think about the way the poor have no collateral to offer for these loans, so the need for it is replaced by personal reputation and honor. And almost all loans are paid back! This is because the loans are evaluated in a group of locals who already have had microloans themselves, and the social knowledge, support and perhaps pressure, too, are used in place of money as a collateral. I can see problems in this system but compared to the traditional banking system those problems are nothing. It's important to remember that microlending schemes have largely helped women who have no access to traditional credit in most developing countries.

Funny Tierney. Here is someone who can really be called a capitalist getting a Nobel and Tierney doesn't like it, because he can think of worse capitalists.

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Monday, October 16, 2006

Bob Herbert on Misogyny 



Finally the M-word has been pronounced in the mainstread media. Finally. Here is Bob Herbert on the school massacres and their real nature:

In the widespread coverage that followed these crimes, very little was made of the fact that only girls were targeted. Imagine if a gunman had gone into a school, separated the kids up on the basis of race or religion, and then shot only the black kids. Or only the white kids. Or only the Jews.

There would have been thunderous outrage. The country would have first recoiled in horror, and then mobilized in an effort to eradicate that kind of murderous bigotry. There would have been calls for action and reflection. And the attack would have been seen for what it really was: a hate crime.

None of that occurred because these were just girls, and we have become so accustomed to living in a society saturated with misogyny that violence against females is more or less to be expected. Stories about the rape, murder and mutilation of women and girls are staples of the news, as familiar to us as weather forecasts. The startling aspect of the Pennsylvania attack was that this terrible thing happened at a school in Amish country, not that it happened to girls.

The disrespectful, degrading, contemptuous treatment of women is so pervasive and so mainstream that it has just about lost its ability to shock. Guys at sporting events and other public venues have shown no qualms about raising an insistent chant to nearby women to show their breasts. An ad for a major long-distance telephone carrier shows three apparently naked women holding a billing statement from a competitor. The text asks, "When was the last time you got screwed?"

An ad for Clinique moisturizing lotion shows a woman's face with the lotion spattered across it to simulate the climactic shot of a porn video.

Yes. Now sit back and watch people not discussing this at all or veering off the topic into something else: school safety, guns, better mental health care. The topic is like a soap bubble; you see it, reach for it and pop! it's gone. What was it we were talking about again? Or it's like something you see from the corner of your eye and can't quite make out.

I've been told that the news reporting about the school massacres in other countries did focus on the fact that the victims were selected on the basis of their sex. This suggests that we could talk about it, too. If we really made an effort. Thanks are due to Bob Herbert for trying.

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Wingnut Views on Feminism 



A very revealing set of posts about Halloween costumes today at the Corner (a wingnut group blog) of the National Review Online. It begins with an anti-feminist post by Mona Charen where she makes it very clear that she doesn't understand sarcasm. But the truly interesting is the next post by Jonah Goldberg:

For the record, my daughter will be a princess this year. Last year she was a cowgirl. In the future she wants to be a "doggy-doctor," a cowgirl again, and a witch. She has plenty of ideas on the subject and feminism hasn't entered into any of them as yet.

Being a cowgirl is not feminist? How many cowgirls do you remember from the old Wild West movies? How many female "doggy-doctors" were there before the second wave of feminism? Was it Jerry Falwell* who said that feminism would make women leave their husbands and turn to witchcraft? You get the point. Mr. Goldberg doesn't seem to realize how very much his daughter owes feminism already.
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It was Pat Robertson. Thanks,mba.

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Some Angry Music 



Which I like a lot.




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Statistics Primer: Part 4: Sampling Distributions 



The time has come to make a clearer link between the messages of my previous posts. One of them talked about the concept of probability and one about the sample mean, sample proportion and sample standard deviation. We are now going to build on those two posts to bring them together into a fruitful marriage of sorts.

To begin with, cast your mind back on the two disciplines: statistics and probability theory. How do they relate to each other? Think of this example: I have a deck of 52, cards, half of which are red and half black. If I randomly draw five cards from this deck, how likely is it that all of them are red? Now that is a question in probability theory. We know what the population (the deck of cards) looks like, and we wish to learn what the sample (the hand of five cards) might look like. Statistics reverses this way of thinking. For example, suppose that you have a deck of 52 cards, but you have manipulated the deck so that it no longer has exactly half red cards. You give me a randomly drawn hand of five cards and my job is to try to figure out from the hand I have what the deck proportions of red and black might be.

In short, statistics uses probability theory "in reverse".

We need one additional pair of terms to get going, and that is the pair of "a variable" and "a constant". A constant is exactly what it sounds like: a number which has a specified constant value. For example, if we calculate the sample proportion of people who love chocolate to be 0.95, then that is a constant. A variable is then not a constant. If we have a sample of annual incomes for Americans, and these incomes vary from zero to, say, 200,000 dollars, then "annual income" is a variable with many different values depending on which sample observation we select.

Variables can be quantitative, as in the previous example, or they can be qualitative. An example of the latter would be the religion of a person in a poll about voting. It can take many different values (Catholic, Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Other, Atheist). These are qualities, not quantities. But remember, we can count proportions to get quantitative data on them.

Quantitative variables are of two main types: continuous and discrete. A continuous variable is one where the following question will be answered in the affirmative: If you take any two values of the variable, is there always a third possible value between the two? Heights and weights are continuous variables. Check this: If one piece of chocolate weighs 2 oz. and another 3 oz. it's clearly possible to have a third piece which weighs something between 2 and 3 oz. The number of visitors to a store selling chocolate on one weekday on the other hand, is a discrete variable. Check this: If the store had 20 visitors one Monday and 21 on another Monday, is it possible that it had, say, 20.75 visitors on some other Monday? The answer is negative (unless we are averaging over the visitor numbers but then we are talking about something different).

The next stage in our adventure is a magic trick. We are going to take the sample statistics such as the mean, the variance and the standard deviation, all constants, and we are going to transform them into variables! Well, not really, but something a little like that. How is this trick carried out?

Let's go back to the example of a deck of 52 playing cards. This deck has been manipulated by someone so that it doesn't necessarily have 26 red cards and 26 black cards as the usual decks do, and we don't know the true proportion of, say, red cards. Earlier I suggested that one hand of five playing cards has been randomly drawn from this deck. This sample could be used to make a point estimate of the proportion of red cards in the deck. Suppose the hand contains three red cards and two black ones. Then the proportion of red cards in the sample is 0.6. This is a constant, right?

Suppose now the evil person who messed up the deck takes these cards pack into the deck, reshuffles it, and deals out another five cards. The new sample has two red cards, so the sample proportion is 0.4. The cards are returned to the deck again, and yet another hand of five cards are dealt out, with three red cards (a sample proportion of 0.6 again). And so on. What is going on here?

Note that we now have a variable, the sample proportion of red cards. It can take more than one value in the experiment. Imagine the dealing-out of five cards continued for, say, a hundred times. We'd then have a large number of sample proportions, and we could use those numbers to figure out the average of all these proportions! We could even calculate a variance and a standard deviation for the sample proprotion! Layers upon layers, you might say. First we had one single sample proportion and one single sample standard deviation. Now we have a whole distribution of sample proportions and we have a standard deviation for the sample proportion itself!

The title of this post has to do with sampling distributions. This is a fancy name for showing us all the possible values and their probabilities that, say, a sample mean could take in this sort of repeated sampling. Or the sample proportion. Or the sample standard deviation. So a sampling distribution is a probability distribution for a sample statistic. If we bring in the heavy artillery of mathematics, it turns out that we can derive explicit formulas for the measures of central tendency and dispersion of these probability distributions. Quite wonderfully, it turns out that the average (or the expected value, as it is properly called) of all sample proportions is....voila! the population proportion! The very thing we wish to estimate! The same is true for the sampling distribution of the sample mean. It averages (in the expected value sense) to the population mean in this sort of repeated sampling (dealing out the five cards over and over from the deck).

The formulas for the variance and the standard deviation of the sample proportion and the sample mean are not quite as intuitive, but they make sense after some thought. Take the sample variance and divide it by the sample size. You get the variance of the sample mean/proportion. If you need the standard deviation, take a square root of the whole thing. So these measures of dispersion get smaller the larger the sample we use. Makes sense. Think about the deck example, but with ten cards dealt out every time. The proportion of red cards in these bigger samples is not going to vary as much from the true unknown proportion in the deck as it will in the smaller samples.

We are almost ready to start playing with real examples of polls. There's only one missing link, and that has to do with the question of probabilities in the sampling distributions. How do we know how likely each possible sample mean or proportion is in the repeated sampling? That is the topic of the next post in this series.

The crucial point of this post in the series is the following: When we take a sample and use it to make estimates about the unknown population characteristics of, say, voter preferences between candidates, we think of this sample as coming from a distribution of many possible samples. This means that the sample proportion we get is a variable. It has a mean and a variance of its own, and the variance, in particular, affects the trust we can place in our estimates.
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This is a wonderful toy to play with. It lets you see the sampling distribution appear.
You can read the earlier parts of this series here: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.

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Sunday, October 15, 2006

New England Asters 

Burn purple in dead leaves.
Cold coals draw day moths
Orange bellows.

A. W.
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Thought For The Day 

Senator John Warner R-VA, the man who heads the Senate Armed Services Committee, was the sixth man to marry Elizabeth Taylor. Did he vow to be her husband till death did them part? If he did, did he really believe it? And do you sort of get the feeling that this explains a lot about how the military affairs of the United States have been conducted recently?
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Liar is a liar is a liar is a liar..... 

Posted by olvlzl

That cheating survey in the news today is causing a lot of hand wringing and you can see why. Sixty percent say they cheated on tests, 28% stole things from stores, 23% from a relative... shocking. It’s even more shocking, 27% said they’d lied on at least one question on the survey itself. And 92% said that they were actually better than a lot of the people they knew.

But, wait. That 27% who said they lied on the survey itself, maybe they lied about lying on the survey but told the truth to all the other questions. Or maybe they lied on every other question except the one the one about lying on the survey. What does that mean?

And, more generally, the surveyors were relying on these young liars, cheaters and thieves telling the truth about any of this. The entire survey was based on faith in their testimony. What are the implications of trusting these people to tell the truth on this survey? How can they know if any of them were telling the truth about any of it? Did they take these possibilities into consideration? You would think that the Josephson Institute, dedicated to the highest in teenage ethics, would want to clear up these questions before they issue another of these surveys or perhaps to issue a warning that their results are of unknown reliability.

More importantly, now much more unquestioning reporting of this phony news is there going to be on TV than there was for last week’s Lancet study. The one which actually looked at hard documentation and used standard and recognized methods to compile their evidence and to analyze it?

If you asked the media people responsible for covering both of these stories if they gave a flying fig as to if what they said about them was accurate or responsible, what would an HONEST response show? Judging by their continued actions, it would be pretty discouraging.
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How Many Dope Slaps Does It Take? 

Never having given an award, not that I remember, here's my nomination for a little award a dope slap of double-dipping hypocrisy. From Frank Rich's column.

“The hypocrisy, the winking and nodding is catching up with the party,” says Mr. Tafel, the former Log Cabin leader. “Republicans must welcome their diversity as the party of Lincoln or purge the party of all gays. The middle ground — we’re a diverse party but we can bash gays too — will no longer work.” He adds that “the ironic point is that the G.O.P. isn’t as homophobic as it pretends to be.” Indeed two likely leading presidential competitors in 2008, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, are consistent supporters of gay civil rights.


Hard to say where the award belongs, Tafel for his and his Log Cabin hypocrits for supporting the Republican Party as it demonized gay people or Tafel for his hypocrisy for lying that the Republican Party is not "as homophobic as it pretends to be". Hells belles, Tafel, didn't you go to high-school. The biggest and most violent homophobes were mostly in the closet too. You just decided that your personal interest lay in joining their pack of queer bashers. And I'm not going to speculate just what that interest consisted of.

As for the point about McCain and Giuliani. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are both presidental contenders but since Rudy has no chance of getting the nomination - living with two openly gay men while being kicked out of his house because his wife got tired of his multiple affairs, to more than one woman. At a time. That we know of. He's probably going to stay in the log closet on gay bashing.

John McCain. Well, he's not the brightest pebble on the beach but he can count. He can get the nomination and he'll do a quick count of head and find, as have all those other Republicans, that there are a hell of a lot more queer bashers in the G.O.P. than there are G.L.A.D. members so, it's good bye Log Cabin Club just as soon as he's done with you. How many times of having this done to you does it take? You people are denser than elm logs.

Republicans dedided a long time ago that their future lay with bigots. It still does and it will for the foreseeable future.
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Saturday, October 14, 2006

A Billion Moslems Don’t Care What We Want 

Posted by olvlzl

T
he world needs there to be an Islamic Enlightenment in the Middle East and beyond. It needs an appreciation and passion for equality and personal liberty to take root among Moslems. It also needs for that to happen among Christians and others in the West, never more so than as the Bush era Unlightenment threatens to snuff out the small flames of reason here. Enlightenment is too good to be restricted to any particular group. For reasons given below, I doubt the necessary Islamic Enlightenment can come to enough people until the West rediscovers and realizes aspirations for justice and reason, both essential prerequisites for freedom. But this post is about some of the practical consequences for western leftists of this new dark age we live in.

Eteraz and Echidne’s posts this week calling for action to try to prevent the stoning deaths of women in Iran are about the best things I’ve seen on the web in months. Information and exchanging ideas is well and good, but action trying to change reality for the better is certainly the best use of the web. Reality, what actually happens, is superior to any abstract consideration. Who can say if it will work? The only thing that is certain is that not writing those letters to Iranian officials means that you haven’t tried to prevent these deaths and others to come. That attempt has to be made, it is an act of amorality to not try.

But our case would be a lot stronger if the United States hadn’t done so much to destroy any hopes for political and social progress in Islamic countries. When Norman Schwarzkopf ’s father instigated the overthrow of the democratically elected Mossadegh for British and American oil interests, he and those giving him orders probably insured that eventually there would be today’s Islamic government in Iran. The suppression of any democratic opposition to the Shah insured that another force, religion, which it was impossible to entirely suppress or coopt, would become the dominant opposition. That is what happened.

All corrupt governments eventually fall, all oligarchic systems eventually rot out and get kicked in by something else. In Iran that something else was conservative Islam. The desperate and inadequate attempts during and after the Shah’s fall to support a democratic opposition were too little and far too late. Support by the United States or Britain at that point would have only made the democrats’ position worse. Remember the taunts that America was “the great Satan”.* In that climate Iranian democrats in league with the United States might be seen as having made a pact with the devil. American and Britain certainly hadn’t been little angels in that country.

What does it mean for western leftists that our governments seem to have done just about everything they can to insure that westerners have almost no moral credibility in the Middle East? In just the latest and largest example of moral hypocrisy, the Iraq war was abominably sold as a war to bring democracy and womens rights when there was no reason to believe that it could. The moral, political and financial disaster that the people of that country have suffered because of it, has damaged the reputation of democracy itself. As Bush and Rice chanted “rape rooms” they ushered in the anarchy they were warned would result from their invasion. Many people suspected that this would result in a situation much worse for women than the years of Saddam Hussein’s rule, that is just what has come about. And that’s just one of many instances where our credibility has been spent in exchange for corrupt goals over many decades.

All of this is a round about way to get to the central point of this post, what will or does an Islamic feminism look like? Of all the necessary social movements for justice in the Islamic world none is more needed than feminism. In many Islamic countries women are as oppressed as it is possible for them to be. Their oppression carries the full force of the law and the apparatus of the state and official religion. Sometimes even the dominant opposition is fully in accord with this grinding subjugation of women. Half of Islam needs feminism more desperately than American women did in the 19th Century. But whatever else can be known about the possible form that this feminism could take, one thing is certain. It will be an Islamic feminism.

The women who produce and accept it will have to find the defense of their liberty in terms of their cultures and the texts of their religion. Westerners who expect or even demand that the expectations of various secular feminisms be adopted in Islamic countries are wasting their time. Even with the clearest evidence and most obvious reasoning, things alien to Islamic cultures will be rejected. It will be seen as an attempt at covert imperialism and massively arrogant. It will be characterized as immorality and the work of Satan. You might not like these facts but our not liking it has entirely no importance in the matter on the ground in those countries.

Another thing that has to be remembered, enough men in these Islamic countries will also have to fully accept the legitimacy of some form of feminism for there to be any improvement in the lives of women. In some societies women have no legal rights of any kind, they are now treated as the chattels of men. There is not going to be a rising of women against those men, the majority of men are going to have to be convinced. That will be the work of generations, it’s not going to happen during our lives. Development issues which would benefit from women having equal education and financial rights might help make the case. But without dedication to justice the lure of development will not be enough. There has to be enough devotion to the rights of women to literally be willing to die for them. The radical Islamic right has shown it is willing to shed oceans of blood to dominate the majority of the population and the enforced subjugation of women is one of their basic goals.

If Western governments persist with the same policies they have followed, then they and western corporations have handed people in the Middle East and around the globe more than enough ammunition to reject our ideas for social reform. That ammunition consists of wars of conquest, puppet governments, environmental ruin, agricultural despoliation, financial and political and cultural corruption and meddling in their home grown attempts at progress. It has issued a definitive insult to Moslems and that insult is a lot more important than most of us can imagine. Leftists have no reason to expect that we can escape being tainted by this history, not even with the best will in the world. We live in witness to the evil done by our governments’ foreign policy without having prevented it, not even with the tools of democracy securely in our hands.


Where does that leave leftists here? We have to keep petitioning the governments in Islamic and other countries to stop killing and injuring women and others and to reform their legal systems. There is no question of that obligation. But there is more we can do. We can try to understand and support Islamic women and men who are working for justice and freedom. And they do exist ** They must take the lead. They have the necessary knowledge of the actual social and political realities in their countries needed to get results. Trying to impose details that we think are right on them is futile and insulting. It will be rejected, it will fail to change anything. But we have a much more important job, one that is important because it has some chance to change reality in a positive way in the near future.

We have to pressure our governments to end policies that lead to the poverty and oppression of people in Islamic countries. We have to pressure our government to stop trying to manage the Middle East, Indonesia and countries around the world for the benefit of big oil and other corporations. Our governments have to try to force the corrupt families and oligarches who run client states in the Middle East to begin the turn over to real democracies. Just as here, the only guarantee of democracy is an informed and rational pubic. The media and educational systems have to be turned to real education and not propaganda. In a lot of these countries, even those with large oil incomes, real, universal, public education has yet to begin. Pressuring the wealthy rulers to do this isn’t going to be easy but nothing will improve until they do. The change it could bring about is essential so the seeming impossibility is no excuse to not start applying pressure right now.

If the United States hadn’t installed the Shah it is possible we could be dealing with a democracy there today. It would probably not be what many of us would be happy with but it would be a lot better than what our government installed. It is quite possible that with an example of a real democracy dedicated to the welfare of the people, significant parts of the history of that area could be different. The political and social pressures that produced Saddam Hussein might not have happened. There very likely would not have been an Iran-Iraq war or Bush War I. There wouldn’t have been the sanctions of the Clinton years. There might not have been an invasion of Iraq by the arrogant and ignorant Bush II regime. The fundamentalists might never have been able to fill the vacuum left by the suppression of democratic oppositions to the old and decadent rulers. The overthrow of an elected government in Iran certainly didn’t do anything to help the situation. Who knows, Jimmy Carter might have even won reelection.

Western leftists are too used to believing we can get what we want as soon as we want it. The past quarter of a century here should have convinced us that we almost never can. If we can’t pass the Equal Rights Amendment in the United States, we’re hardly in a position to start planning what the liberation of women in Islamic countries will be like or when it will come. Repeatedly demanding the impossible is no substitute for intelligent and constant pressure to change the situation that keeps people everywhere in bondage. Our most intelligent effort will be in changing that situation by changing our own government’s actions around the world.

* And conservatives are shocked and offended when another elected leader of an oil producing country who survived a coup attempt calls Bush “the devil”. You seeing a pattern here?

**A small sample of sites and papers.

The Feminist Sexual Ethics Project Islam Links


Margot Badran Islamic feminism: what's in a name?

Amina Wadud

Irshad Manji

Zeeshan Hasan


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Did You Hear This One 

ALASKA Needs Fuel Assistance From Venezuela

Posted by olvlzl

Oh, thank heavens for those patriotic Inuits who are willing to freeze to death so that the demon Hugo Chavez can’t burnish his image here. Those brave natives of the north will show him he can’t go call George W. Bush the devil at the U.N. and not pay a price. Because of them Bush will prevail, ter’ism will be defeated and, no doubt, oil profits can climb even higher.

But Alaska? Doesn’t it register that this is more than strange? Doesn’t it provide evidence of just how corrupt and screwed up our economics are. That Alaska, which has sacrificed large swaths of its northern territory to oil production, would even need to consider getting fuel oil from another country is just stunning. Why didn’t the crooks who run that state make certain that there would be enough oil supplied in the deal for Alaska’s residents? Is there some commandment of economics that would forbid public servants (and in few places is that phrase more pro forma) from looking after the basic needs of their real bosses, the people? I mean, it isn’t post invasion Iraq.

And most stunning of all it’s not even oil that Venezuela is prepared to give them, it’s money, cash, beautiful dollahs .

About 150 native villages in Alaska have accepted money for heating oil from Citgo. The oil company does not operate in Alaska, so instead of sending oil, it is donating about $5.3 million to native nonprofit organizations to buy 100 gallons this winter for each of more than 12,000 households.

Hugo Chavez was prepared to give money to make up for the Alaskan legislature’s refusal to appropriate enough money for fuel assistance.

An editorial last month in the Anchorage Daily News bashed the Legislature's rejection in March of an $8.8 million state supplement to a federal program that helps poor Alaskans with home heating costs.

Now that issue has been raised by FOX and crocks’ in praise of the patriotism of these few Inuit villages which have so unwisely refused what many other villages have accepted watch for this. As these hypocritical Republicans praise the small group of natives defending with their lives George W. Bush from the slings and arrows of petty name-calling, as the right wing media and slagosphere echo these same talking points none of them are in any danger of freezing this winter. I’ll bet many of them will be staying warm or driving their cars due to oil imported from Venezuela, it’s just that they have the money to pay for it. I’ll bet that sitting in their warm studios and cars they’ll be quite willing to defend the honor of George W. Bush to the last frozen Inuit.

Gov. Frank Murkowski, certainly as corrupt a government official as has ever breathed, has said that Chavez is trying to destroy Americans faith in their government. If that’s the case, why is he lending him such an opportunity to begin with? If he and his cronies were looking after the interests of their constituents instead of themselves and their fellow plutocrats Chavez might have to offer this to some other Republican state.

I bet the Inuit wisely not prepared to freeze for King and oilgarchy will now be known on FOX and the other outlets of Republican bilge as traitors, that is if they dare to bring them up in this entirely shameful story of theft, negligence and hypocrisy.
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anonymous said... 

It's a parents right to tell their kids.

Note: My friend the nurse says that her first cases of carnival related STDs in young teeagers are coming into her office, soon, she tells me, to be followed by missed periods. So I’m reposting this. It is an answer to a comment on a post about the 25th anniversary of AIDS being recognized.

First posted on olvlzl June 07, 2006

Y
ou say a parent has a right to tell their kids about condoms. No. That isn't a right, it's a responsibility. Parents who don't tell their children what they need to know to keep themselves from dying of AIDS are negligent. As negligent as parents who refuse to provide them with medical treatment. What they need to know to keep themselves safe goes a lot farther than "just say no,". Children don't just say no. A lot of the time they say yes. Even children who have been told only to say no and kept entirely ignorant of condoms say yes. Parents have no right to pretend that there is no chance that their children will have sex. Refusing to provide them with realistic information about protecting themselves from HIV isn't a right, it's child endangerment.

Even if a parent does provide their own children with complete information not all parents do. You know that most don't. A child brought up in ignorance or with bad information about condom use just might be the one who gets your child to say yes. And you won't be there to stop it. You have a resonsiblity to your own children to make certain that everyone they might have sex with knows the full truth about AIDS prevention. Most of them won't get that information from their parents and with what conservatives and Republicans have done to politics most of them wont' get it at school either. Even if they do get it at school that isn't the best proven way to change behavior. Like it or not TV is the most effective way of spreading effective information. It's where most people get their information. So the information has to be accurate, complete and repeated as many times as is needed to cut the rates of HIV infection in this country.

It is too bad that there was no monitoring of the experiment that has been run in this area. The most rapid and massive campaign of sex education in the history of the country was when Henry Hyde and the Republicans on his committee released the full details of Bill Clinton's affair. Teachers I know said that almost overnight children down to the lowest grades were talking about oral sex in ways they'd never heard before. The cabloids and even the broadcast networks repeatedly gave every detail about oral sex and semen stains in prime time for any child to hear. I don't remember any complaint from the right wing clergy or the Peroxide Aryan Sisterhood then.

Me? I was disappointed to hear about the affair, though it certainly wasn't any of my business. Liberals tend to be a bit sensitive to the airing of other peoples' dirty linen in public, you see. But I have to confess that I was more disappointed to hear that he didn't wear a condom for his wife's, his partner's and his own protection. I'm also disappointed that, having thrown the kitchen sink at Bill Clinton, they didn't throw that at him too.

All might not be lost, however. If David Broder is to be believed, not a mistake I usually make, the experiment is going to be rerun as he has declared Mrs. Clinton's private life to be in season for the Republican bedroom monitors. They should keep better records this time.
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Friday, October 13, 2006

Friday Pet and Echidne Blogging 












The dogs in the pictures are SD's Squeak (with the baby) and Robster's Luke (by the fence). The cat is just a funny waiting cat. The writing is about me. mememe. Me! Just because I can. Heh.

It's a lovely day here, with a mellow autumn sun looking kindly at the riot of red and yellow leaves and late-flowering stalwart flowers. And I have washed eight windows of the total of thirty or so. The difference is astonishing, which reminds me, once again, of how fun cleaning can be, but only when the space is really dirty to begin with. It's not much fun to move the eyebrowful of dust around once a week, but if you relax and wait long enough there will be enough doghair to build an igloo and the cleaning can be quite catharctic. So that's the new recommendation: Let the dirt pile up first.

I just had lunch consisting of some cold macaroni-and-cheese with coffee. I pretended it was a cheese sandwich. The ingredients are fairly close, in any case. The next household chore on my list will have to be to shop for some food. Did I tell you how much I hate shopping?

In other news, I still worry and fret about the proper number of explicitly feminist posts on this blog. I sometimes feel that I'm letting those readers down who come here expecting a lot of feminist writing. It is there, but more in the angle I take to all sorts of topics. Maybe it would be better for me to shut down on that other stuff and to focus on feminism. Specialization. I hate it.

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Reacting to the Lancet Study on Iraqi War Deaths 



It is an odd thing to observe, these reactions to a study that came out earlier this week, with much larger estimates for violent death rates in Iraq than has been available from any alternative source. In a nutshell, the wingnuts hate the study, because the findings suggest that a near-genocide is going on in Iraq, and the moonbats defend the study ferociously, because it confirms their expectations that a near-genocide is going on in Iraq. Nobody is happy about the study findings, of course. Let me repeat that: Nobody is happy about the study findings; nobody wants to imagine that many horrible deaths and the suffering that goes along with those or the effect on the survivors.

Here is the summary from the study itself:

Summary
Background An excess mortality of nearly 100 000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003–September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of Iraq. Our aim was to update this estimate.

Methods Between May and July, 2006, we did a national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq. 50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered.

Findings Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12 801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4·3–7·1), compared with 13·3 per 1000 people per year (10·9–16·1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979–942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369–793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.

Interpretation The number of people dying in Iraq has continued to escalate. The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, although the actual numbers have increased every year. Gunfire remains the most common cause of death, although deaths from car bombing have increased.

And what might this be in somewhat plainer English? The researchers wanted to do a statistical study of death rates in the Iraqi population. Taking a simple random sample (remember my statistics primer post on that?) wasn't feasible. Just imagine the risk that would be associated with trying to make 4000 separate trips to 4000 separate families in that war-torn country. Instead, the research used an alternative sampling scheme, called cluster sampling, where first a smaller number of geographical locations were selected randomly based on population densities (so that, for example, Baghdad with its six million inhabitants would get more clusters than a rural governate (like a county) with very few inhabitants) and then in each selected cluster a house was picked randomly to start the survey. Another thirty-nine households within the near vicinity of the starting house were then included in the survey.

That way the research staff needed to travel to only 50 locations to interview 2000 households. They made a mess with a few of these clusters, for various administrative and human error reasons, and ended with data on 47 clusters only. These clusters had 1849 households and a total of 12 801 individuals. These individuals reported a total of 629 deaths during the time period the study covered (from January 2002 to June 2006).

That's the first stage of the research. The second stage is to divide the information on deaths into the pre-invasion and the post-invasion stages by the times of deaths that were reported (82 and 547 respectively) in order to estimate the excess mortality of the post-invasion period. Then this excess mortality is extrapolated to the whole Iraqi population, assuming that the sample used in the study is representative. The best point estimate (best single number) to use for this excess mortality would be 654 965 deaths.

The surveys also contain information on violent deaths and the perpetrators of the same (only grouped into coalition forces and essentially other causes). A similar method extrapolated the number of violent deaths to the general population and came up with the number of 601 027 violent deaths in the post-invasion period.

These point estimates are not as "respectable" as showing them in cold numbers might suggest to some. This is because they are based on sample data and sample data derived from a modified form of random sampling. The confidence intervals** that are given in the summary above reflect the added uncertainty caused by this. For example, the interval estimate for the violent deaths in the post-invasion period is from 426 369 to 793 663 deaths.

Let's now turn to the criticisms of the study. The most common criticism I have seen is that the extrapolated numbers are not realistic, because they are so much larger than those available from alternative sources, such as the Iraq Body Count, the Iraq government statistics or sources such as media reports.

That there is a difference in these numbers can be at least partly accounted for by the fact that the Lancet study was actively looking for deaths in the community, whereas all the other sources are based on passive reporting: stories in newspapers, checking on morgues and so on. It's pretty likely that a war-torn country has large numbers of deaths which are not reported on, especially a country like Iraq where large areas of the country are too dangerous for journalists to venture in. This does not mean that the Lancet numbers are necessarily correct, of course, but it suggests that we must take into account the different methods other death counts use before comparing the two.

The second most common criticism is that the cluster sampling method is flawed. That was the criticism George Bush appears to have given when he stated that the methodology has been debunked. But the cluster sampling method is widely used for estimating deaths in conflict areas. Its weakness, compared to simple random sampling, is taken into account in the wide confidence intervals the estimates produce. Still, it's important to keep that weakness in mind when interpreting the numbers. Think of this example: A suicide bomber hits a town marketplace and kills a large number of people. If one of the clusters in this study happens to start with a house right next to a market like this, that house and the following 39 are all likely to have violent deaths in larger numbers than the general Iraq population, assuming that people frequent the nearest market place.

The third most common criticism has to do with the truthfulness of the survey results and respondents. The research teams asked for a death certificate in 87% of the cases and were shown one in 80% of all cases. It's unfortunate that so many people who write about the study are using the higher percentage of 92% confirmation rate. This only applied to the cases where a certificate was requested. But 80% is fairly impressive, too.

A more difficult criticism to address is whether the respondents correctly identified the perpetrator in the cases of violent death. The researchers could not ask if the dead household member had been an insurgent, a bandit or someone who belonged to the death squads. This means that we really don't know what proportion of the deaths were those of civilians and what proportion of those who were fighters or even criminals. There might also be upwards bias in the attribution of deaths directly to the coalition forces for various reasons: anger at the American occupation and fear of blaming local insurgents and so on. Or maybe not, but this (31% of the deaths were directly attributed to coalition forces) is one figure I view with less confidence than the others. - I'm also a little confused about the sex difference in the reported non-violent deaths which show men dying at much higher rates.

Then there is the often-heard criticism from the right that the Lancet itself is biased in publishing this study right before U.S. elections and because of its anti-war stance. The latter is really irrelevant, because the study stands for itself and anybody can do the kind of critique I've tried to conduct here. Though it would have been very interesting to see the raw data, as that might tell us something about the actual distributions of the deaths between the clusters. Whether the study was published at this time for a reason, well, the Bush administration manipulates the media to have terrorists arrests in Pakistan delayed so that they coincide with the Democratic National Convention. Sauce for the goose and the gander and all that.


--------------------
**What does a "confidence interval" mean in this case? Imagine that you are an archer trying to hit the bull's eye on a dartboard. You have a blindfold over your eyes but you are turned so that you face the dartboard. Suppose that you can choose to aim the dartboard with either an ordinary arrow or something that has a large suction cup at the end. Ignoring the mechanical differences in shooting one or the other kind of arrow, which would be more likely to hit the invisible bull's eye? Clearly the rubber suction cup one. Now imagine that you could pick an arrow with either a larger or smaller suction cup for the exercize. Clearly, you are more likely to hit the bull's eye with the suction cup arrow and more likely to hit it with a big suction cup than a small one. In a similar way, a point estimate is like shooting a sharp-pointed arrow, a confidence interval is like shooting a suction cup arrow. The larger the suction cup, the more confident we can be that we have covered the bull's eye. But it's also true that we lose precision in our estimate.

In this study, the researchers picked a 95% confidence interval (a common suction cup size) for the study. It means that if we could somehow imagine repeating the study with the same sample size and the same method of picking samples and sending surveyors out over and over again, hundred times or more, then at most in 5% of the study results we'd get would we find that the true unknown number is not within the interval given.

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From the Annals of The Unbelievable 



And from Ohio, of course:

It's up to Republican Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell to decide whether a challenge to the voter registration of his Democratic opponent for Ohio governor will move forward.

The challenge, filed last week at the Columbiana County Board of Elections, contends that Congressman Ted Strickland should not be allowed to vote from his Lisbon address because he really lives in Columbus.

Strickland and his wife own a condominium in Columbus and rent a home in Lisbon, which is in Strickland's congressional district. It's too late for Strickland to change his voter registration.

Strickland has voted for the past three years from his Lisbon address, but he files his federal income taxes from his Columbus address and declared that it was his permanent address on papers he filed to receive a property tax reduction in Franklin County.

At a meeting of the Columbiana County elections board on Thursday, Democratic member Dennis Johnson moved to dismiss the challenge. The four-member board voted along party lines, creating a tie: Democrats voting in favor of dismissal, and Republicans against it, according to John Payne, deputy director.

Republican member Al Fricano, meanwhile, moved to postpone action on the challenge. That motion also resulted in a tie vote, this time with Republicans voting yes and Democrats no.

Both votes will be sent to Blackwell's office to break the ties.

So Blackwell, who is running far behind in the polls, can now decide if his opponent must battle this challenge. Hmm. I wonder what he will do?

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Thursday, October 12, 2006

On the Lancet Study of Iraqi War-Related Deaths 



I'm still reading the study and its critiques. If I have anything useful to say on the statistical aspects of the study it will most likely be tomorrow. It is sad to note that opinions about the validity of the study split almost exactly along political lines.

But what is unbearably sadder is the violent death and dying in Iraq, whatever the actual numbers of victims might be.

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Happy Anniversary to Bouphonia 



It has now entered the terrible twos. Phila, the proprietor over there, writes very thoughtful posts on the environment, technology, politics and social issues. His blog also sports Friday nudibranches (which I'm going to use as models for embroidery one day).

Now that's out of the way I should point out that I'm only writing this so as to make Phila feel guilty if he doesn't send me chocolate when my blog turns three... Divine plots, these are called.

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Mexican Fence Volleyball 






Courtesy of Rob Nigh, this (slightly old) story about playing volleyball across the fence between Mexico and the United States returns some of my faith in human beings.

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Women's Rights - Collateral Damage In Iraq 



The news are not good for Iraqi women, especially those who work outside the home:

They came for Dr Khaula al-Tallal in a white Opel car after she took a taxi home to the middle class district of Qadissiya in Iraq's holy city of Najaf. She worked for the medical committee that examined patients to assess them for welfare benefit. Crucially, however, she was a woman in a country where being a female professional increasingly invites a death sentence.

As al-Tallal, 50, walked towards her house, one of three men in the Opel stepped out and raked her with bullets.

A women's rights campaigner, Umm Salam - a nickname - knows about the three men in the Opel: they tried to kill her on 11 December last year. It was a Sunday, she recalls, and 15 bullets were fired into her own car as she drove home from teaching at an internet cafe. A man in civilian clothes got out of the car and opened fire. Three bullets hit her, one lodging close to her spinal cord. Her 20-year-old son was hit in the chest. Umm Salam saw the gun - a police-issue Glock. She is convinced her would-be assassin works for the state.

The shootings of al-Tallal and Umm Salam are not isolated incidents, even in Najaf - a city almost exclusively Shia and largely insulated from the sectarian violence of the North. Bodies of young women have appeared in its dusty lanes and avenues, places patrolled by packs of dogs where the boundaries bleed into the desert. It is a favourite place for dumping murder victims.

Iraqis do not like to talk about it much, but there is an understanding of what is going on these days. If a young woman is abducted and murdered without a ransom demand, she has been kidnapped to be raped. Even those raped and released are not necessarily safe: the response of some families to finding that a woman has been raped has been to kill her.

...

Iraq's women live in terror of speaking their opinions; of going out to work; or defying the strict new prohibitions on dress and behaviour applied across Iraq by Islamist militants, both Sunni and Shia. They live in fear of their husbands, too, as women's rights have been undermined by the country's postwar constitution that has taken power from the family courts and given it to clerics.

...

After a month-long investigation, The Observer has established that in almost every major area of human rights, women are being seriously discriminated against, in some cases seeing their conditions return to those of females in the Middle Ages. In areas such as the Shia militia stronghold of Sadr City in east Baghdad, women have been beaten for not wearing socks. Even the headscarf and juba - the ankle-length, flared coat that buttons to the collar - are not enough for the zealots. Some women have been threatened with death unless they wear the full abbaya, the black, all-encompassing veil.

Similar reports are emerging from Mosul, where it is Sunni extremists who are laying down the law, and Kirkuk. Women from Karbala, Hilla, Basra and Nassariyah have all told The Observer similar stories. Of the insidious spread of militia and religious party control - and how members of those same groups are, paradoxically, increasingly responsible for the rape and murder of women outside their sects and communities.

'There is a member of my organisation, an activist who is a Christian,' said Yanar Mohammed, head of the Organisation for Iraqi Women's Freedom, who has had death threats for her work in protecting women threatened by domestic violence or 'honour' killings. 'She would have to walk home each day to her neighbourhood through an area controlled by one of the Islamic Shia militias, the Jaish al-Mahdi. She does not wear a veil so she gets abused by these men. About three weeks ago, one of them starts following her home saying that he wants a sexual relationship with her. He tells her what he wants to do, and if she doesn't agree he says she will be kidnapped. In the end he thinks that, because he is armed, because he threatens her existence, she will have to agree to a "pleasure marriage" [a temporary sexual union arranged by a cleric].'

Read the whole article. And yes, I know that it is depressing reading.

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The Nuts? 



According to a new book by David Kuo who used to work in Bush's Office of Faith-Based Initiatives Karl Rove's office used this endearment for the evangelical leaders of the wingnuts. Oops. But my term doesn't mean the same thing at all, as you well know if you regularly read here.

Crooks&Liars has a Keith Olbermann video and transcript about the two-faced habits of the Republicans in power. Indeed, it is hard to serve two Lords...

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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Wolcott on D'Souza's new book 



If you like beautifully written snark, read Wolcott's piece titled "Ratfink Writes New Book". Should you be too busy for that my summary might suffice:

According to Dinesh D'Souza, Osama bin Laden and other terrorists would leave us alone if only we started to live exactly like these terrorists want us to.

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What's Sauce for the Goose 



Is sauce for the gander, they say. Applied to transparent elections in the United States, this gets interesting. I earlier argued that all politicians should worry about us tinfoil brigaders distrusting the Diebold machines. Even if the machines are not used fraudulently, the very fact that so many of us now distrust them should be a sufficient reason to put into place more reliable programs and methods. But I've been shouting into a barrel on all that. The people who have already gotten elected (or appear to have been elected) have no purely selfish reason to change the system.

But now I hear the same argument from Republicans:

Advocates of registration and photo identification laws say they are needed to prevent fraud. They say the rules apply to all potential voters, regardless of race, ethnicity, income or ideology. "This is a matter of voter confidence, whether or not the fraud is real or perceived," says Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita, whose state has one of the nation's strictest ID requirements.

Except, of course Rokita is not talking about possible machine fraud, only the idea that dead people might be voting in large numbers. We all know that dead people vote Democratic, for some odd reason. And then there is the difference that most voters who won't have proper identification don't have it because they are poor and poor people usually don't have passports and such. Poor old people also tend not to have drivers' licenses.

I want to strike a deal with people like Rokita. If he promises that the machines will be made tamper-proof, I'm ok with a system where all people are provided identification cards at no cost for them and in places where they can get to easily. How about that?

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The Rights of Employees at Religious Organizations in the U.S. 



The New York Times has an interesting series of articles about the legal position of religious organizations. The separation of church and state serves such organizations by letting them have many more freedoms than is the case with other nonprofits. It's fun to speculate what might happen to these extra freedoms if the religious conservatives had their way and the wall separating religion from the government was totally pulled down. It looks to me as if the conservatives might not like what they get.

But the current situation is not that beneficial to the employees of religious organizations. Take the case of Mary Rosati, a novice, who was dismissed from her order after she was found to have breast cancer. The incentive to dismiss her was clearly the cost of the treatment, but the reason the order got away with it was religious freedom:

His client was a middle-aged novice training to become a nun in a Roman Catholic religious order in Toledo. She said she had been dismissed by the order after she became seriously ill — including a diagnosis of breast cancer.

In her complaint, the novice, Mary Rosati, said she had visited her doctor with her immediate supervisor and the mother superior. After the doctor explained her treatment options for breast cancer, the complaint continued, the mother superior announced: "We will have to let her go. I don't think we can take care of her."

Some months later Ms. Rosati was told that the mother superior and the order's governing council had decided to dismiss her after concluding that "she was not called to our way of life," according to the complaint. Along with her occupation and her home, she lost her health insurance, Mr. Heck said. Ms. Rosati, who still lacks health insurance but whose cancer is in remission, said she preferred not to discuss her experience because of her continuing love for the church.


Then there is the immense opportunity for sex discrimination that such religious freedom allows. This is partly because religions almost always have rules which deny women positions of power, but there are even wider fields for those who like to punish uppity women here:

For 28 days last May, Lynette M. Petruska, a former nun who now lives in St. Louis, thought she had finally found judges willing to listen to her complaint against Gannon University, a coeducational Catholic college in downtown Erie, Pa. As it turned out, she was wrong.

Ms. Petruska was educated in Catholic schools from kindergarten to college commencement, graduated at the top of her law school class and practiced law for several years before deciding to become a nun. In 1999, as she was working toward taking her final vows, she became the first woman to serve as Gannon's chaplain.

Three years later she was demoted and, according to her complaint, effectively forced out. In her lawsuit, she said this action was in response to her having notified the administration of a case of sexual misconduct by a senior university official, resisted efforts to cover up that case and opposed proposals to weaken campus policies on sexual harassment. In 2004, she sued, accusing the university administration of forcing her out simply because she was a woman and because she had opposed the sexual harassment others experienced on campus.

Gender bias claims against religious employers have generally been dismissed under the ministerial exception. But some judges across the country have been less quick to dismiss cases where sexual harassment or abuse of an employee is involved. And unlike many other plaintiffs, Ms. Petruska claimed that her supervisor had actually acknowledged to her that she was being demoted solely because of her sex, not because of any religious doctrine.

Judge Sean J. McLaughlin of the United States District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania nevertheless ruled that Gannon was protected by the First Amendment and the ministerial exception from any court interference in its choice of chaplain. Gannon itself argued that it had many women in leadership positions and that Ms. Petruska had resigned simply because she was unhappy with a staff reorganization. But its fundamental argument was that it would be unconstitutional for the court to second-guess these disputed decisions.

"You may ask, 'Why should these decisions go unquestioned?' The reason is plain and simple: The First Amendment protects a church's right to freely exercise its religion," said Evan C. Rudert, a lawyer for the university. "And that includes organizing itself as it chooses and selecting those who it believes will serve best as its leaders — without interference from the courts."

Then, last May, in a decision that caused considerable comment in legal circles around the country, a federal appeals court panel reversed the trial judge's decision.

For four weeks, the prevailing law in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and the Virgin Islands — the jurisdiction of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit — was that "employment discrimination unconnected to religious belief, religious doctrine, or the internal regulations of a church is simply the exercise of intolerance, not the free exercise of religion."

Appellate Judge Edward R. Becker wrote that opinion; his colleague on the three-judge panel, Judge D. Brooks Smith, filed a stinging dissent. A few days later, Judge Becker died. On June 20, in a rare move, the Third Circuit granted Gannon's routine request to have the case reconsidered and named Judge Smith to the new three-judge panel that would do so.

On Sept. 6, the new panel swept the earlier decision away, unequivocally restoring the protections for religious employers that it had put in doubt. As Judge Smith put it, the ministerial exception "applies to any claim, the resolution of which would limit a religious institution's right to choose who will perform particular spiritual functions."

Ms. Petruska, who has left her order and returned home to work at her old law firm, describes herself as a feminist who is "committed to peace and freedom." She has a long history of putting her words into action — she has been arrested at protest marches, most recently at an antiwar rally the day before the Iraq war began, she said. She plans to appeal the ruling against her.

"I think this issue needs to be decided by the Supreme Court," she said. And she has hopes that the justices will agree with Judge Becker that, absent some grounding in religious doctrine, sex discrimination by religious employers is wrong.

"Absent some grounding in religious doctrine, sex discrimination by religious employers is wrong", she hopes. If that was correct things would get quite interesting. The more anti-woman a religion would be by doctrine, the more it could freely discriminate against women. Funny kinds of rewards in that system, don't you think?

What makes this whole conversation important is the Bush administration practice of awarding large sums of money to religious institutions for social welfare related tasks. Even if there is a conceptual wall between the religious aspect of such institutions and their caring aspect, it's pretty obvious that the administration has made all us taxpayers into supporters of various types of discrimination, and not only discrimination based on gender. Read the whole article for other examples.

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From the Memory Hole, On North Korea 



This is from 2002:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hard-liners in the U.S. Bush administration hope a recent decision questioning North Korea's compliance with a 1994 nuclear agreement is a prelude to the accord's demise, according to U.S. officials.

If they are right, it would mark another administration assault on a 30-year-old system of arms control agreements.

"The battle remains to be fought (on North Korea) but that's why this shift in the certification question this year is so important," one senior official told Reuters.

The White House sent a strong message, ruling it could not be sure Pyongyang was adhering to the agreement that was hailed as a landmark on signing eight years ago and aimed to freeze its nuclear weapons program.

It was a dramatic break with the administration of former President Bill Clinton, which negotiated the accord called the Agreed Framework to resolve a nuclear crisis with Pyongyang.

As a condition of U.S. assistance to North Korea, Congress requires the U.S. president to certify annually that Pyongyang is in compliance with the 1994 accord.

The White House told Congress nine days ago it could not do that because it was not satisfied Pyongyang was making new nuclear inspection arrangements with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

But it gave North Korea some respite by invoking a national security waiver allowing U.S. commitments to continue -- at least for this year.

Those commitments include $95 million for half a million tons of fuel oil to the secretive and economically desperate communist country as well as backing for construction of two light-water nuclear power reactors, all part of the estimated $5 billion deal.

FUTURE OPTIONS
Next year could be a very different story.

U.S. officials said administration hard-liners who are most suspicious of Pyongyang see this year's certification decision as a first step toward unraveling the agreement altogether.

It occurred after Bush toughened his rhetoric following the Sept. 11 attacks on America and put North Korea in an "axis of evil" with Iran and Iraq, claiming each was intent on developing weapons of mass destruction.

...

Officials said hard-liners believe the accord with its massive aid is propping up North Korea and impeding its reunification with South Korea -- a U.S. democratic ally.

In general, the debate over the 1994 agreement has pitted the State Department, which favors the accord, against the Pentagon, which opposes it. An exception is undersecretary of state for international security affairs, John Bolton, who often goes with the Pentagon.

The administration insists the North must immediately begin full cooperation with the IAEA on inspections to determine how many nuclear weapons or material Pyongyang produced.

Former Clinton aides argue Pyongyang does not need to begin those inspections until KEDO is ready to install the nuclear components in the reactors.

Under Clinton, high-level visits took place and North Korea agreed to suspend test launches of their long-range missiles. But Bush has taken a much harder line toward the North and talks have been erratic and at lower levels.

Just to remember the road to the present.

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Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Action Alert!!!!!!! 



This is an important alert. You can try to save lives by protesting the planned stoning to death of seven Iranian women. Instructions and information here. Hurry! Time is running out!

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David Rakoff Interview 



This was a few days ago but it's really worth watching for that odd wingnut view on women's bodies, as well as their views of the "gay agenda" (like a shopping list). From flea.



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Married Moms And Other Female Voter Groups 



Via dohiyi mir I found this piece of news about women voters:

Poll results and interviews with political analysts indicate the GOP has lost ground with a voting group that helped the party keep hold of Congress and the White House in 2002 and 2004. Married moms have become a volatile swing group just as Democrats need to gain 15 GOP-held House seats and six in the Senate to win control of Capitol Hill.

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll this month found that support is now evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans among married women with children in the house. Republicans won this voting group by 18 percentage points in 2002 and Bush won it by 14 percentage points in 2004.

Remember the soccer moms? And the security moms? Perhaps because of these quasi-insulting tags for women voters we finally got the Nascar dads, too. I dislike these kinds of labels, because they suggest that people in the group vote the way they do because the description in the label, even when it clearly makes no sense. And I dislike the fact that other women don't seem to deserve even a silly label though they also vote.

What truly lies beneath my irritability on this topic is that it's all more of the same-old-same-old: Looking at women voters as an afterthought or only when a group looks to hover on the margin between the parties, but not bothering to actually find out what women of all types want when they vote. Usually, but not always, what women want from their political representatives is not that different from what men want, and I'd be astonished if someone could show me that there were no safety dads in the 2004 elections. Astonished. Or that men don't coach their children's soccer teams or go and watch the games, too, probably as often as the women do. But it's the women who are called after "soccer" or "safety" or "married moms". What about "married dads"? Who do they vote for and why? Oh, but "married dads" are just voters, you know.

Ok. This was a rant. I needed to rant today.

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Monday, October 09, 2006

Look Ma! No Wheels! 






It looks like the wheels are coming off the Republican experiment (via Eschaton):

An overwhelming majority of Americans think House Republican leaders put their own political interests ahead of the safety of congressional pages in their handling of the Mark Foley scandal, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll.

Seventy-nine percent of those polled — including 61 percent of Republicans — say GOP leaders were more concerned with politics than the well-being of the teenage pages.

Sixty-two percent think the Republican leadership was aware of the sexually explicit e-mails sent by former Rep. Foley before the public learned about them in late September — a charge many top Republicans deny. Two-thirds of Americans say GOP leaders did not take the matter seriously enough when they first learned about it.

But does this matter for the midterm elections? It's not clear, even assuming that all votes are correctly counted:

Two-thirds of voters say the Foley scandal will make little difference in how they cast their ballots, but 21 percent say it will make them more likely to vote Democratic.

Democrats continue to hold a sizeable lead in the generic vote for Congress, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they'd support a Democratic candidate versus 35 percent who would support a Republican. Those numbers show little change from last month.

What is most astonishing is this, though:

More Americans also now see the Democrats as the party holding the higher moral and ethical ground — once a Republican strength. Thirty-seven percent think the Democrats have higher ethical standards, compared to 32 percent for the Republicans. Forty-seven percent think the Democrats are more likely to share their moral values, versus 38 percent for the Republicans.

Especially in comparison to the post right below this one.

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On The Values Party 



The most recent piece of news about the predatorgate is that at least one Republican in Congress knew about the Internet exchanges in 2000:

A Republican congressman knew of disgraced former representative Mark Foley's inappropriate Internet exchanges as far back as 2000 and personally confronted Foley about his communications.

A spokeswoman for Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) confirmed yesterday that a former page showed the congressman Internet messages that had made the youth feel uncomfortable with the direction Foley (R-Fla.) was taking their e-mail relationship. Last week, when the Foley matter erupted, a Kolbe staff member suggested to the former page that he take the matter to the clerk of the House, Karen Haas, said Kolbe's press secretary, Korenna Cline.

The revelation pushes back by at least five years the date when a member of Congress has acknowledged learning of Foley's behavior with former pages. A timeline issued by House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) suggested that the first lawmakers to know, Rep. John M. Shimkus (R-Ill.), the chairman of the House Page Board, and Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.), became aware of "over-friendly" e-mails only last fall. It also expands the universe of players in the drama beyond members, either in leadership or on the page board.

A source with direct knowledge of Kolbe's involvement said the messages shared with Kolbe were sexually explicit, and he read the contents to The Washington Post under the condition that they not be reprinted. But Cline denied the source's characterization, saying only that the messages had made the former page feel uncomfortable. Nevertheless, she said, "corrective action" was taken. Cline said she has not yet determined whether that action went beyond Kolbe's confrontation with Foley.

I can't help feeling that an important value for the wingnuts is not to get caught. Granted, that is a near-universal value, but I expect more from the values-party. The Democrats have already been labeled the party of feminazis and sodomists and those who hate America, after all, and most everybody in Wingnuttia agrees that they have no morals or ethics. Especially James Dobson, the radical Christianist fundamentalist who exerts a lot of influence on our current administration. But even Mr. Dobson seems to think that morals can be played with:

On Focus on the Family, Dobson was responding to a New York Times column by Paul Krugman, in which Krugman wondered how Dobson would respond to the Foley scandal given Dobson's earlier criticism of former President Bill Clinton for his affair with Monica Lewinsky. From Krugman's column (subscription required):

It will be interesting, by the way, to see how Dr. Dobson, who declared of Bill Clinton that "no man has ever done more to debase the presidency," responds to the Foley scandal. Does the failure of Republican leaders to do anything about a sexual predator in their midst outrage him as much as a Democratic president's consensual affair?

In response, Dobson again criticized Clinton and then suggested that the sexually explicit instant messages allegedly sent by Foley to underage male pages were the result of "sort of a joke":

DOBSON: We condemn the Foley affair categorically, and we also believe that what Mr. Clinton did was one of the most embarrassing and wicked things ever done by a president in power. Let me remind you, sir, that it was not just James Dobson who found the Lewinsky affair reprehensible. More than 140 newspapers called for Clinton's resignation. But the president didn't do what Mr. Foley has done in leaving. He stayed in office, and he lied to the grand jury to obscure the facts. As it turns out, Mr. Foley has had illicit sex with no one that we know of, and the whole thing turned out to be what some people are now saying was a -- sort of a joke by the boy and some of the other pages.

I'm quite disappointed in the wingnuts. I expected a lot more from the values-party. Values, for example.

Bitchphd had an interesting post on this last week. Here's a quote from it:

But the Foley thing, I think, is different. First, we're a month away from midterm elections.

Second--and this is the point I was really trying to make on the air yesterday--I think that it really speaks to the heart of the Republican Party's platform in the last few years, which is all about the public/private divide. Are abortion, birth control, gay marriage private issues, or are they subjects for public policymaking? Do the problems of the workforce for parents with families constitute a public crisis, or are they merely the inevitable result of private decisions that women make about whether or not to work? Are we willing to give up our privacy in order to secure public safety? Is protecting the "homeland"--and if any sphere is defined as private, the "home" is--from political problems of the larger public world really what the Iraq war is all about? Does the renewed Patriot Act go too far by suspending the habeas corpus rights of private individuals in order to protect the American public? Does that same American public have a right to know about classified reports on issues of national import? Should the private individuals who leak classified material to public forums be considered traitors or heroes? Do we need public records of what happens in the privacy of the voting booth?

This stuff is key for the Republicans. They have built their house on the ideas that the private arena of sex, gender, and sexuality is a matter of public concern, and that the public's right to know and debate political decisions threatens the government's need to keep such decisions private--for the public good. It's pretty significant that this Foley thing is the public scandal that's keeping Woodward's book and the new Patriot Act's dismissal of habeas corpus off the front pages and the nightly news. And I think that, on some unrecognized level, Foley's role as scapegoat for Republican family values hypocrisy serves as a synechdoche for the much bigger Republican hypocrisy of turning the public and private spheres inside out.

She has a point, don't you think? But it isn't just turning the public and private spheres inside out. It's more like making everything about the lives of the powerful private and everything about the lives of the poor public. Thus, those in the government may have all the secrecy they wish but the lives of poor women on welfare can be freely dissected in public arenas. Bedrooms of the powerful wingnuts are private places, bedrooms of the rest of us have searchlights and video cameras. And the only values that matter are morals about sexuality and gender relationships and family matters, all interpreted tightly within a patriarchal tradition. Values about business or warfare or running the public sector don't matter, or are replaced by the "patriotism" of unquestioning obedience to the current administration. Values such as caring or neighborliness or justice don't matter or are made into private values.

All this allows the Nosey-Parkers among us to criticize their adult neighbors' consensual sexual behavior with other adults freely and also obviates any need to help the same neighbors when they are in financial trouble. The former is a public concern, the latter a private problem brought on by reckless spending or laziness.

The danger in all this is when the apparent and real values of the social conservatives collide in public, and this is what happened in the predatorgate. Even James Dobson then back-pedals on the importance of sexual morality and the protection of the minors, and the only reason I can see for him doing so is that these rules are for little people and don't apply to the powerful wingnuts.







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Statistics Primer. Part 3: Sample Statistics 



Here is where writing this primer gets difficult. An introductory course to statistics is at least one semester long for a good reason. To do something much shorter requires a certain amount of omissions and a couple of rough approximations or almost-lies. So if you know a lot of statistics, go gently on me in the comments section. Ok?

Suppose, then, that we have some information we have gathered by a proper random sampling process. It could be the yearly incomes of one hundred people, ranging from zero dollars to, let's say, two hundred thousand, and we want to do something interesting with these sample data. For one thing, nobody is going to think we are great if we just print out the hundred numbers on a piece of paper and distribute it. Human beings are not good at seeing general patterns in numbers like that. So what can we do to summarize the information?

Two things come to mind right away. We could try to condense the information into just a few numbers or we could try to make a mental picture of it (a topic I might or might not cover in this primer, depending on whether it seems needed). Let's begin by trying to condense the information into just a few numbers, called sample statistics. These statistics are numbers, to be distinguished from the science of statistics in general. If you could only give one sample statistic to represent all the information in the sample of one hundred incomes, what would it be?

Probably some measure of central tendency, meaning that the number we pick should somehow represent the average, or the common or the representative in the sample. There are three candidates for this measure: the mean (or the arithmetic average), the mode (or the most common value) and the median (or the middle value). Most of us are familiar with the mean, and it turns out to be the overall winner for reasons that have more to do with its statistical usefulness than its ability to otherwise beat the competition. But the mode and the median are also handy to know about.

In our income example, the mode would be the income value which appears most often in our sample. The median income of the sample would be found as follows: Arrange the hundred income numbers in an increasing order. Give each individual an ordinal number corresponding to his or her place in the line-up. Then the median income is the income of the individual who is standing smack in the middle of the line-up. Oops, you say now. There is nobody standing there! True, because my sample has an even number of observations. The trick in this case is to use the arithmetic average of the two incomes belonging to the two people on both sides of the missing central person.

An example might come in useful here, and one with fewer than a hundred numbers. Suppose that we have some data on yearly incomes for five people only, and the incomes are as follows:

0, 45,000, 45,000, 70,000, 100,000

I have put them into an increasing order for your convenience. The arithmetic average for this sample is 52,000. The mode is 45,000 (it occurs twice and no other figure occurs more than once) and the median is the middle income in this ordered array or 45,000. Note that the three measures of central tendency may or may not be the same and that each of them might be useful for different purposes, including different political manipulations. For example, see what happens when I add one more observation to the sample:

0, 45,000, 45,000, 70,000, 100,000, 700,000

The arithmetic mean is now 160,000! The mode is still 45,000, but the median is now the income half-way between the second 45,000 and the 70,000 figure following it or 57,500.

You might want to play with this a little more. For example, it's possible to have more modes than one. Take out the 700,000 I added and replace it with a second 100,000 figure. But there is always only one mean and one median.

As I mentioned above, the mean is the workhorse among these measures of central tendency, even though it may not always be the most representative single number in a sample. What we use it for, ultimately, is in estimating the same single number in the population. For example, if we found that the average income of the one hundred people in my original sample is 67,000, then we could use that as a point estimate of the average income of all people in the population I drew the sample from. But this sounds a little dangerous, doesn't it? Because I might have gotten the same sample mean from a sample of only ten people and because clearly the mean itself isn't a very good guess if the sample incomes varied widely all over the place.

What about that varying wildly all over the place? Let's take a different imaginary set of three samples:
Sample A:

7, 8, 10, 12, 13

Sample B:

7, 9, 10, 11, 13

Sample C:

10, 10, 10, 10, 10

All these samples have the same mean, 10. (Note that the mean doesn't have to be one of the numbers in the initial sample, it just happened to be in this case.) But the samples are clearly showing very different stuff otherwise, and if we only reported the mean to someone we'd be omitting important information. Sample C is just the same number five times. Sample B has the three numbers in the center closer to each other than is the case in sample A. So A has the most variation of the three. How could we express that in one single number?

Statisticians came up with a way of doing it. To understand the thinking behind the favorite selected for the job it might be useful to discard a few other candidates first.

The starting point would be to note that we need to fix the measure of scatter to something and the mean is already there as a good candidate for that. What if we measured the general variation in the sample by looking at the distance of the various sample values from the mean? The further these values fall from the mean, on average, the more scattered is the sample, after all. Suppose that we calculated all these distances. To get just one number to reflect the dispersion we could use the average of the distances.

Let's try it for sample A. The first distance is 7-10 = -3, the second 8-10 = -2 the third is 10-10 = 0, the fourth 12-10 = 2 and the fifth 13-10 = 3. To make these into one overall measure of the scatter or dispersion we could add them up and then divide by the sample size, five. Except that what we get as the sum of the distances from the mean is zero.

That's why this one was rejected. The problem has to do with the negative and positive values canceling each other out. So a slightly different approach would be to use the absolute values of the distances in these calculations. This would work, but it turns out to be cumbersome later on in various statistical uses the measure has. Still, the idea of getting rid of the negative signs in the distances or deviations around the mean is a good one. Is there any other way we could get this trick to work?

Yes, and that is by squaring the deviations around the mean before we add them up and then average them. To get back to the original units we used we then take a square root of the result. This number is called the standard deviation. The number we have before we take the square root is the variance.

The values for the variance for the three samples A, B and C are 5.20, 4.00 and 0 respectively, and the standard deviations 2.28, 2.00 and 0. For those who know some statistics and want to know more about how to average the sum of deviations around the mean correctly, see the footnote preceded by the asterisk.

To recap the conversation so far: We have two formulas, one of which is the average value in the sample, the mean, and the other one of which is the average squared deviation around the mean (for the variance) or the square root of that (for the standard deviation). I'm not sure if you can see how these could start a pattern for more formulas. For example, suppose that we calculated the average cubed deviation around the mean and so on. What might we get? It turns out that we'd get measures for finding out how lopsided our sample might be and other interesting things like that. Lopsided distributions aren't going to be central in what I'm covering here, but they can be quite fascinating.

You may be silently complaining that none of this seems to have much to do with opinion polls where the data we get tends to consist of verbal answers to questions. Data like that are qualitative, not quantitative, and we can't just storm ahead to calculate means and variances for them. But there is a way around that problem, and that is by counting.

Suppose that we have asked five people whether they prefer Smith or Jones to be their state senator in the next elections, and suppose that four people say they prefer Jones and one person says that she or he prefers Smith. It turns out that all the work we have done can serve here, too, if we make one additional change: We are going to count each expressed preference for Jones as 1 and each expressed preference for Smith as 0 . The data will then look like this:
1, 1, 1, 1, 0
and the mean of these numbers will be 4/5 or 0.80. Using the earlier form for variance gives us the figure 0.16 , which produces 0.40 for the standard deviation.

The only snag here is that we might have as well counted the votes for Smith as 1, and then the mean would have been 0.20. But the variance and standard deviation are unchanged (though usually we have a shortcut formula for counting these rather than doing what I made you do here for learning purposes).

The mean for binary data like this is called the sample proportion rather than the sample mean, and we need to decide which of the two alternatives we are going to focus on. But nothing is lost as you can clearly see if we multiply the proportions by 100 to get percentages. If Jones gets 80% in the poll then Smith must get 20% (assuming everybody expressed preference for one or the other or that we took out the undecideds before the calculations started).

That's probably enough for one post. Note that I gave you no actual formulas and neither did I give you the Greek letters usually employed to denote the population mean, proportion and variance or the letters used to denote the sample equivalents. We'll see how far I get before I have to do something like that. But you should now know what people mean by a sample mean, a sample proportion or a sample standard deviation, and that the mysterious population lends itself to calculating corresponding measures should we ever have enough time and money to do that.
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*You may be aware that the formulas for sample variances and standard deviations usually don't employ the sample size, n, as the denominator, but n-1. I omitted the necessary explanation for that here, because my goals are more modest for this series. But someone asked why the formulas usually employ n-1 here rather than n.

The answer has to do with the final uses of these formulas, which is to estimate population equivalents to the sample concepts we have talked about here. There is no really easy and juicy way of explaining this (at least I haven't found one), but perhaps the best explanation has to do with the concept called degrees of freedom (d.o.f.). Roughly, the degrees of freedom is the number of independent sample observations we have for calculating a formula such as the sample mean or the sample standard deviation. Note that when we calculated the mean we could use all the sample data freely in that work. But when we calculated the variance we were using the previously calculated mean, with the added restriction that the sum of the sample observations divided by the sample size must equal that value. So we lost some independence there and this is reflected in the use of n-1 when we figure out the average dispersion in the sample. Sigh. I'm afraid that this wasn't very helpful unless you already knew all about it.

More generally, the degrees of freedom is the sample size minus the number of population parameters already estimated from the sample. Here we have only one such already estimated parameter which would be the population mean, estimated here by the sample mean.

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Sunday, October 08, 2006

Anna Politkovskaya, RIP 




Such sad news:

MOSCOW (AP) - A journalist shot to death in an apparent contract killing was about to publish a story about torture and abductions in Chechnya when she was slain, her editor said Sunday, as Russia's top prosecutor took charge of the case.

Anna Politkovskaya, famed for her unsparing coverage of abuses against civilians in Chechnya in the outspoken newspaper Novaya Gazeta, was found dead Saturday in the elevator of her Moscow apartment building. She had two gunshot wounds - one to the head.

Politkovskaya, 48, had collected witness accounts and photos of tortured bodies and the article had been due for publication Monday, her newspaper's editors said.

"We never got the article, but she had evidence about these (abducted) people and there were photographs," Novaya Gazeta's deputy editor, Vitaly Yerushensky, told Ekho Moskvy radio.

I once heard her interviewed on the radio. She was a true journalist.

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On Jack Straw and the Niqab 







Jack Straw, Britain's former Foreign Secretary, has started a furious debate by questioning the wearing of the niqab, the full veil with a face-veil:

Britain has been plunged into a debate over Islamic integration after revelations that former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw asks Muslim women visiting his office to remove their veils and a Muslim policeman was excused from guarding the Israeli Embassy.

The uproars have left many questioning whether Britain's multicultural ideals can withstand the strains of a cultural divide that is increasingly tormenting much of Europe.

Straw said in a newspaper column published Thursday that he believes the veils favored by some Muslim women inhibit communication and are a sign of division in society. At his constituency office, he said he asks that veiled women reveal their faces, adding that the women have always complied, and a female assistant is always present.

On Friday, British media quoted Straw as going further _ saying that he would prefer that Muslim women not wear veils at all.

"I just find it uncomfortable if I'm trying to have a conversation with someone whose face I can't see," Straw told the British Broadcasting Corp.

Many Muslims in Straw's parliamentary district of Blackburn, in northwestern England, reacted with outrage.

"It is trivial to suggest that you need to see someone's face to speak to them freely. People can still communicate with a veil on," said Fauzia Ali, 23.

Ali, who chooses not to wear a veil, added: "I know some women would refuse to leave the house if they had to remove them."

I also read somewhere that Straw is partially deaf, and I can understand (was going to write "see") how that would make it hard to interpret a person whose face is covered. So to that extent I'm on Straw's side.

But what side should I be on as a feminist? That is a much harder question to answer than it first might seem, because the whole veil question is really about religious freedoms much more than gender equality. For one thing, men are not asked to wear a veil in Islam. That makes the clothing comparisons between men and women something different and really irrelevant for the current debate. For another thing, the religious rules about the veil were all made by men, to begin with. You may not notice it from the following quote, though, but the Muslim scholars who decided on these questions were men who never had to wear the veil themselves:

MUSLIM scholars are divided about the need for women to wear the niqab, the veil.

Those who choose to wear it cite the Koran: "O Prophet, tell your wives and daughters and the believing women to draw their outer garments around them when they go out or are among men."

However, there are differing interpretations - as much based on tradition and geography as religion - whether this means women should wear the full veil.

The most conservative observers believe that women should wear the full burqa - the garment made compulsory in Afghanistan under the Taleban, where not even the eyes are visible. In Saudi Arabia, women also wear gloves to cover their hands, while the jibab is a less restrictive garment which still hides the shape of the body.

The hijab, or headscarf, is the most common nod to modesty and is often worn by women who choose to wear western clothes. In Pakistan, there is social pressure on women to cover up, but in Turkey the headscarf has been banned at state-run universities. Tunisia has also outlawed the headscarf, saying it curtails women's rights.

This is true within Christianity, too. The roles women are allowed to have within Catholicism, for example, are based on the rulings made by men, and celibate men in this case. Note also this quote from a British Muslim leader:

Dr Daud Abdullah, from the Muslim Council of Britain, said it was up to individual Muslim women whether or not they wore the veil.

"This [the veil] does cause some discomfort to non-Muslims, one can understand this," he said.

"Even within the Muslim community the scholars have different views on this.

"There are those who believe it is obligatory for the Muslim woman to cover her face.

"Others say she is not obliged to cover up. It's up to the woman to make the choice.

"Our view is that if it is going to cause discomfort and that can be avoided then it can be done. The veil over the hair is obligatory."

"The veil over the hair is obligatory." And what is obligatory for Muslim men to cover? And do they cover it? The point of this questioning is obviously that religions in general are eager to make rules for women's behavior but not very interested in limiting the possible behaviors of men.

Why did I write the above paragraphs on religions? Because my reading of much of the debate in Britain is that the whole question has been transformed into a quasi-feminist one by bringing up the argument that women should be free to dress as they wish. Indeed. But such a choice-feminist-lite argument disguises the fact that we are talking about religious freedoms here, and religious freedoms in a context where the religions themselves have sizeable misogynistic chunks. And just like I want to write about what it means when a woman dresses in high heels and gets breast enhancement surgery or decides to weigh eighty pounds for the sake of fashions, I also want to write about what it means when a woman dresses in a way which makes her disappear altogether as an individual. Both of these have a shared root, the desire to manipulate what men see, and in an odd way they both make the woman disappear as an individual and just leave the femaleness behind. It's as if the woman doesn't have a name or a personality anymore.

Not that I believe women's clothing should be decided upon by Jack Straw or the male leaders of Britain's Muslims, either. It is up to the British Muslim women to decide what they wear. But their choices are no more independent of the society and religious sphere in which they live than the clothing choices of any other woman. As I stated earlier, this debate is not about feminism at all. It is about religious freedoms. Sadly, gender equality and religious rights often conflict.

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Well, This Is What It Means For Neilsie 

Now, after five years of development and backing by investors like Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and onetime junk-bond king Michael R. Milken, Neil Bush aims to roll his high-tech teacher's helpers into classrooms nationwide. He calls them "curriculum on wheels," or COWs. The $3,800 purple plug-and-play computer/projectors display lively videos and cartoons: the XYZ Affair of the late 1790s as operetta, the 1828 Tariff of Abominations as horror flick. The device plays songs that are supposed to aid the memorization of the 22 rivers of Texas or other facts that might crop up in state tests of "essential knowledge."

Bush's Ignite! Inc. has sold 1,700 COWs since 2005, mainly in Texas, where Bush lives and his brother was once governor. In August, Houston's school board authorized expenditures of up to $200,000 for COWs. The company expects 2006 revenue of $5 million. Says Bush about the impact of his name: "I'm not saying it hasn't opened any doors. It may have helped with some sales." (In September, the U.S. Education Dept.'s inspector general accused the agency of improperly favoring at least five publishers, including The McGraw-Hill Companies, which owns BusinessWeek. A company spokesman says: "Our reading programs have been successful in advancing student achievement for decades; that's why educators hold them in such high regard.")

The stars haven't always aligned for Bush, but at times financial support has. A foundation linked to the controversial Reverend Sun Myung Moon has donated $1 million for a COWs research project in Washington (D.C.)-area schools. In 2004 a Shanghai chip company agreed to give Bush stock then valued at $2 million for showing up at board meetings. (Bush says he received one-fifth of the shares.) In 1988 a Colorado savings and loan failed while he served on its board, making him a prominent symbol of the S&L scandal. Neil calls himself "the most politically damaged of the [Bush] brothers."

While hardly the first brother to embarrass a President -- remember Billy Carter's Billy Beer or Roger Clinton's cocaine? -- Neil could be the first to seek profit from a hallmark Presidential crusade. And also that of a governor: Jeb makes school standards a centerpiece in Florida, too.
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A Woman Was Lynched Today 

Posted by olvlzl

Some of you will know that a new blog was begun this week. It has a name that was deliberately chosen to be provocative and to have historical significance. But the name isn't really what's important, the purpose of the blog is.

It is a place where the names of women and girls believed to have been murdered because of their gender will be taken out of the inside pages of regional newspapers and put in one place where they can't be ignored. A lot of you will be as surprised as I was to discover that according to crime statistics in the United States there are an average of four women murdered every day whose deaths are believed to be largely on account of their gender. Accounting for the size of the population, that is a number similar to the number of lynchings in the worst year for which statistics are maintained. This is a crisis that has been ignored for too long.

We need people to post links to these stories on the threads of the blog so they can be read and posted separately. The judgment calls on those have already drawn challenges but I'm not going to wait for infallible judgment that isn't going to come. This is an emergency that needs to be uncovered and seen for what it is.

Please look at the blog, post links to cases that I won't be able to find with the limited time available. Please make suggestions of how the basic purpose of the blog can be better served. It is a very simple purpose, to list the names and locations of victims with links to reports in reliable sources.

One of the things you may have noticed in reports of these kinds of crimes is that the murderer is often the focus of the reports. At times there are pictures of the murderers along with extensive biographical information about him but not their victims. Here the focus is on the victims.
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Ok, Let me put it this way a proposal 

Posted by olvlzl

A Pledge By Candidates to The Voters Whose Nomination They Want

If Democrats who legitimately cast a vote in the Democratic primary or in caucus choose another candidate to be their nominee, I pledge that I will not run as an independent or as the candidate of another party for that office in the general election.

The people who cast legitimate votes in the Democratic primary determine their candidate, candidates who ask for their nomination are honor bound to abide by their decision. The Democratic nomination for any office belongs to the enrolled members of the party, not to any candidate, office holder or official of the Democratic Party.


I can’t see any reason that a group or coalition of Democrats can’t ask a candidate for their nomination to sign this pledge as soon as they have filed to run. If the candidate won’t sign it they will have announced that they don’t consider their loyalty to Democrats binding. Democrats will know what to expect of candidates like that. If the candidate does sign and then reneges on that pledge then the voters in the general election will know that their word isn’t to be trusted. I can see either becoming an important election issue.

We have to reclaim the Democratic nomination as the property of enrolled Democrats, we have to reclaim all political offices as the property of the voters at large. We might lend them to people but that doesn’t make them their property. Joe Lieberman doesn’t have ownership rights over the Senate seat he’s been borrowing, no matter how much he might think so.
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Would You Buy A Used War From This Woman? 

Posted by olvlzl.

A story on the BBC website puts it this way:

“Why did Condoleezza Rice come to Israel and the West Bank earlier this week?
By all accounts, the US secretary of state had no fresh ideas to offer to revive what used to be called the Middle East peace process.”


No fresh ideas”, is a polite description considering the article is about how Condi is serving up warmed over “peace plans” lines, the kind that didn’t go anywhere on her roadmap to nowhere the last time they wanted to sell a war. Her diplomacy has all the retro-style of platforms and elephant pants topped by a leisure suit jacket. In the most used idea of all times, Kissinger is reselling his invasion of Cambodia, well, they don’t call it that but that’s what it is. And we all know how well that worked the last time. Bush II has bought out the entire stock, mothballs and all.

There should be better ways of keeping the Republican Party from endless foreign adventures and wars of conquest than destroying the American military through these insane wars. Most importantly because a lot of people get killed, non-Americans mostly but also Americans. Since our elites have an infinite ability to overlook mountains of corpses as long as they don’t contain rich white people, that’s not how this will be argued in the media.

I’m all for the United States going back to being a democratic republic but this is the worst way to destroy the imperial ambitions of the plutocrats. Vietnam, in which they pretty much got their way until it began to destroy the United States, was a warning gone unheard.

Under Reagan and Bush I the cry was that the “country had to get over Vietnam syndrome”, a disease which was defined as a reluctance to use military force brought on by the defeat in that war*. The real disease wasn’t defeatism it was the idiotic imperialism that caused the war in the first place. The expenditure of lives in a criminal and amazingly foolish war of conquest and the enormous financial cost to the country were the real causes of weakness. When you spend lots of lives and money you tend to weaken your position. The American People are not an endless expense account. The reluctance to continue destroying the country over the fantasies of academic crackpots and grasping imperialists wasn’t an illness, it was a return to sanity. Unfortunately the remission didn’t even last a decade.

If they get their war in Iran, which they will if Republicans win the election next month, they will destroy the country, The United States and perhaps Iran as well. The aftermath of the Bush II years will make the late 70s look like a golden age. Not the disco and nostalgia junk, that was the plutocrats way of dumbing down the country to prepare the way for Reagan, the malaise that took hold during the Ford and then Carter years. The country will be lucky if its just that sort of low-grade fever-depression feeling this time. I’ll bet it’s a lot more like the depression and Pearl Harbor rolled into one.

Just now I’m not going to get into what it does to how the rest of the world feels about the United States after six years of Bush II. Not just now. They won’t allow us to act this way forever.

* The lie that it was “not fought hard enough”, assiduously sold through a string of fascist-chic and action movies during the 80s and 90s is one of the bigger lies ever sold. There is no one spouting that argument who dosen’t base their argument on something like what they could have heard in one of these fascist-chic sources instead of fact so don’t bother arguing with them anymore. Just keep asserting the truth. Leftists don’t just assert what they know to be true based on facts nearly often enough. Facts don’t matter to conservatives, just repetition.

About the title, from the famous question asked about Richard Nixon, "Would you buy a used war from this man" . In looking for the classic use of the line I found out that David Horowitz, then a draft-age, anti-Vietnam war, draft-card burning, would be student leader, now a neo-con retro, retred, in no danger of deployment has a right little pout about the question in his Daddy-Warbucks funded vainty mag. No link, I don't link to finks.
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Saturday, October 07, 2006

On a Beauty Shoppe, Saco, Maine 

Body Piercing

While You Wait
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Nestlings 

or: Who is That Sitting Next To Sulzberger?

Posted by olvlzl

What would happen if you made a really bad mistake at work and someone got killed? A mistake you had been warned about? You know that you would lose your job, your friends. There wouldn't be any question of getting a good reference. Your personal life would fall apart, you would be a pariah. And that assumes that you escaped criminal prosecution. You might be lucky to escape several years in prison. That's the way life is when you screw up royally. That's the way your life is when you screw up. It's not that way for the rich and connected. The ones who are in a position to really screw up royally.

It's hard to think of a person in the federal government who has advised doing something that has turned out to be a total disaster costing hundreds and thousands of lives, who has paid a real price for it. A lot of the time they advise going ahead into disaster when there are people who strongly advise against it. A lot of times the people advising caution are experts in universities; great scholars of long standing with decades of study, who have taken the bother of learning the languages. In many cases they, unsurprisingly, turn out to have known what they were talking about. The DC policy wonks who gave the bad advice typically work out of that intoxicating mix of theory, wishful thinking and the nest feathering that has nothing to do with the subject of action. It has everything to do with their speaking and dinner invitations and job prospects.

And when they get it catastrophically wrong what happens to them? They get promoted. The invitations don't stop. They're still dining among the Sulzbergers and the Grahams. They often end up with seats at the very same universities where the real and unheeded experts work. They are still consulted by the media in preference to the real experts. Connections count for more than scholarship with our great and free press. Eventually, now resting on their laurels as a "scholar" of the subject, they go back into the government.

In retirement a few of them pen their memoirs. A few of those will, the tide of opinion making it prudent, express their belated regrets for their tragic mistakes. They were victims of fate, no one could have done any better under the circumstances. I don't know about you but I think honor would have been better served if they had sat silently and taken their lumps from history.

But here is the real question. What are we to these people? Those of us who get killed in their disasters, those of us whose relatives and friends get killed, those of us who pay? Does it even register with the media, the heads of departments, the corporate boards, that these people have climbed on the bodies of real, bleeding people to rise to the top? Does it begin to dawn on them that they have proven themselves to be bunglers and thugs with nothing to teach the world except as bad examples? And YES, I do mean the Kennedy school at Harvard and Georgetown.

These are rhetorical questions, sadly. The answer is clear in their actions. We are nothing to them. To them We the People are things to be used and suckers to be milked. We are those who are to be gulled into paying for it. And don't get me wrong. I'm not just talking about we the working class of America. "We" means those of us on both sides who end up dead and destitute because of this March of Folly.

They will keep killing us as long as we let them, for as long as we allow the media to cover up for them. If they were exposed and their presence at those elite dinner parties became just a bit unseemly, a key part of the daisy chain of corruption would be broken.

We have to make criminal negligence a crime and a shame for the plutocrats and their publicity hounds. And by we, I mean we the used.

Note: So it does look like Henry Kissinger really is advising the Bush II regime on Middle Eastern policy. Remember Cambodia? If the Republicans win the election in November will Kissinger get another round of Christmas bombings in an expanded Iraq war?

I wrote this piece after reading about a round table Kissinger, Haig, Sorensen and Valente had participated in at the Kennedy School of Harvard University to discuss lessons of Vietnam. The obvious question is, why ask the people who got it so wrong? Shouldn’t the judgement of the people who got it right, many of whom are alive and living in Cambridge, have more credibility than megalomaniacs and hacks who got it disastrously wrong? Then I imagined the reception or dinner that was likely a part of the festivities. Harvard would have certainly had some kind of social occasion what with four A-list celebs to rub elbows with potential donors. Would any of the revelers give a thought to that pile of two million skulls shoved off to the corner?

Since this was originally posted last June I’ve heard that Douglas Feith holds positions at Harvard, Georgetown and Stanford simultaneously. Wikipedia says that this is how he sees himself:
Feith confided to The New Yorker in 2005, "When history looks back, I want to be in the class of people who did the right thing, the sensible thing, and not necessarily the fashionable thing, the thing that met the aesthetic of the moment.”
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Make Lieberman Guarantee You Aren’t Voting For Frist’s Winning Vote 

Posted by olvlzl

It’s too late for the Senate election in Connecticut but the Democratic Party has to take measures to prevent another Joe Lieberman situation from happening.

A political party shouldn’t make demands on a person once they hold office, that’s the right of their constituents but the a party does have rights to impose some requirements on candidates who ask to run for the nomination of that party. The nomination of a party belongs to the enrolled voters of the party, not the candidate, not the leadership of the party.

The Democratic Party should require people who take out papers to run as a Democrat to sign a binding pledge that if they lose a nomination that they will not run as the candidate of another party or as an independent. What Lieberman has done is to insist on having it both ways, to insist that he is a Democrat but then to refuse to play by the rules of the Party and of democracy.

In the mean time, if I was a voter in Connecticut I’d do everything I could to pin Joe Lieberman down. I’d insist on his promise that if elected he wouldn’t jump parties and that he wouldn’t support Republicans for leadership positions in the Senate under any circumstances. I would make certain that his promise didn’t contain escape clauses or time limits. Nothing short of a clear and binding pledge for the length of the term would do. Democrats and independents who he is asking to vote for him have every right to demand that he make that pledge. They should know if they are voting for the stealth Republican candidate. I’m sure many of them wouldn’t want to be putting the fiftieth Republican in place and allowing Frist to remain in his leadership position.

Pin Joe Lieberman down. Make him promise to not betray the Democrats of Connecticut again. If he won’t promise, you’ll know what to expect if he wins next month.
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The Murderers Hiding In The Audience Share 

Posted by olvlzl

In the news coverage of the murders of the school girls in Pennsylvania there was talk about the similarities between the actions of the murderer and those of the man who took hostages and murdered a school girl in Colorado the week before. One report I heard went into quite a lot of detail about the similarities, a lot more detail than could have been useful to their audience. They’ve got to fill those 24 hours with something. I guess. But, considering what they were saying about copy-cat crime, you would think that it might have occurred to them that a particular segment of their audience might have found their descriptions very useful. I wonder why none of them seemed to think it was possible that some murderer of the near or distant future might have found their information quite instructive.

What is the use of crime reporting? It shouldn’t be useful for the trial, that’s certainly not the role of reporters but of police and prosecutors. Nancy Grace might be confused about that but real reporters shouldn’t be. Ideally jurors wouldn’t have heard any news reporting that could prejudice their decision about the evidence presented in trial. The right to a fair trial, both for the accused and the public, is clearly more important than whatever right the casual observer has to know most of the details as soon as possible.

There is some public interest served in reporting some facts of these crimes. The public needs to know that crimes are being committed and the nature of those crimes especially if the criminal is still at large. But there is a level of detail that goes past what is needed and risks becoming prurient or even dangerous.

Most people can listen to the sordid details and speculations generated by the cabloids with only their character damaged but pretending they are the only ones who could be listening is willful ignorance. The old justification for allowing pornography was true, most people who consume it don’t imitate it. But a study of the effects on the general population wouldn’t show much that was useful. It is the people who do commit horrible crimes who need to be studied. Where did they get the ideas for their crimes, especially those that don’t seem to be original ideas. What is the copy-cat effect of the crime shows on TV?

Is there a significant effect? Are there people susceptible to imitating the crimes spelled out in such loving detail on A&E and Discovery? On the cabloid news stations? And if there is an effect proven beyond a preponderance of the evidence what use should be made of that fact? I don’t know.

But since they are the ones who are always talking about copy-cat murderers don’t they have a responsibility to take that into account when they are structuring their dramatic recitations of these crimes? They certainly do write the shows for dramatic effect, to follow a saleable narrative. Can they make them profitable and responsible at the same time? Maybe they need to look for a good model of responsible reporting. They won’t find much of that on American TV outside of Bill Moyers.
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Friday, October 06, 2006

The Evil George Soros 



George Soros is a billionaire who has funded some liberal/progressive causes. The wingnuts argue that he is single-handedly funding everything negative ever said about the Bush administration. Most recently, Dennis Hastert used the Soros meme:

On Wednesday night, House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) spun tales of Democratic cabals and hidden agendas for the benefit of hungry reporters. Hastert told The Chicago Tribune that Clinton operatives knew about the allegations and were maybe behind the story's release. "I saw Bill Clinton's adviser, Richard Morris, was saying these guys knew about this all along," he said. "When the base finds out who's feeding this monster, they're not going to be happy.... The people who want to see this thing blow up are ABC News and a lot of Democratic operatives, people funded by George Soros."

After reading so much about this mythically rich financier of all us rabid moonbats, I e-mailed him to ask for my cut. Never got an answer.

The interesting aspect of the Soros meme is that it might have come from the very mouth of Karl Rove. Rove's strategy has always been to attack the opponent where the opponent is actually strongest. Just remember how we suddenly had a fierce debate about the military conduct of John Kerry in Vietnam, while George Bush never even got to Vietnam at all. Mindboggling.

The focus on George Soros is very similar, because the real financiers of political movements are almost all on the wingnut side. Take the case of Richard Schaife. As early as 1999 this was written about his philanthropy:

By compiling a computerized record of nearly all his contributions over the last four decades, The Washington Post found that Scaife and his family's charitable entities have given at least $340 million to conservative causes and institutions – about $620 million in current dollars, adjusted for inflation. The total of Scaife's giving – to conservatives as well as many other beneficiaries – exceeds $600 million, or $1.4 billion in current dollars, much more than any previous estimate.

In the world of big-time philanthropy, there are many bigger givers. The Ford Foundation gave away $491 million in 1998 alone. But by concentrating his giving on a specific ideological objective for nearly 40 years, and making most of his grants with no strings attached, Scaife's philanthropy has had a disproportionate impact on the rise of the right, perhaps the biggest story in American politics in the last quarter of the 20th century.

His money has established or sustained activist think tanks that have created and marketed conservative ideas from welfare reform to enhanced missile defense; public interest law firms that have won important court cases on affirmative action, property rights and how to conduct the national census; organizations and publications that have nurtured conservatism on American campuses; academic institutions that have employed and promoted the work of conservative intellectuals; watchdog groups that have critiqued and harassed media organizations, and many more.

You can find more about the institutions that Scaife is funding at Sourcewatch, and you can compare Scaife's efforts to those of Soros. But this comparison gives an impression of false balance. There are many more billionaires like Scaife on the wingnut side, but not that many on our moonbatty side.

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Friday Pet Blogging 









These are not my animals. The cat is Magoo and the dog is Brandy. Brandy is PL's pet. I'm not sure about Magoo, but I think Magoo belongs to Barry. If not, let me know and I will correct.

In related news, I have become an insectivore. I did see the gnat in the cold coffee by my keyboard but I forgot about it. Then later I drank the coffee. I'm sorry. So sorry.

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The Head, It Hurts 



By which opening you can tell that I've been reading David Brooks again. He is an addiction...

Brooks opines on the relative morality of conservatives and liberals by juxtaposing Mark Foley's predatorgate to..... a play! Yup. In Brooks's world imaginary depictions of sex with minors are every bit as bad as actual events, and writing about such depictions means that one condones them:

This is a tale of two predators. The first is a congressman who befriended teenage pages. He sent them cajoling instant messages asking them to describe their sexual habits, so he could get his jollies.

The second is a secretary, who invited a 13-year-old girl from her neighborhood into her car and kissed her. Then she invited the girl up to her apartment, gave her some vodka, took off her underwear and gave her a satin teddy to wear.

Then she had sex with the girl, which was interrupted when the girl's mother called. Then she made the girl masturbate in front of her and taught her some new techniques.

The first predator, of course, is Mark Foley, the Florida congressman. The second predator is a character in Eve Ensler's play, "The Vagina Monologues."

Foley is now universally reviled. But the Ensler play, which depicts the secretary's affair with the 13-year-old as a glorious awakening, is revered. In the original version of the play, the under-age girl declares, "I say, if it was a rape, it was a good rape, then, a rape that turned my [vagina] into a kind of heaven." When I saw Ensler perform the play several years ago in New York, everyone roared in approval. Ensler has since changed the girl's age to 16 — the age of Foley's pages — and audiences still embrace the play and that scene at colleges and in theaters around the world.

But why is one sexual predator despised and the other celebrated?

I guess the basket of smears is pretty empty if all one has left to toss at the horrible enemies are tales about fictional characters.

Brooks then goes on to explain that liberals and progressives embrace selfishness and that conservatives are worried about the social fabric being torn apart:

Ensler's audiences are reacting to the exuberant voice of the young girl, who narrates the scene. They're embracing — at least in the fantasy world of the theater — a moral code that's been called expressive individualism. Under this code, the core mission of life is to throw off the shackles of social convention and to embark on a journey of self-discovery. Behavior is not wrong if it feels good and doesn't hurt anybody else. Sex is not wrong so long as it is done by mutual consent.

...

But there's another and older code, and people seem to be returning to this older code to judge Mark Foley. Under this older code, we are defined not by our individual choices but by our social roles.

Under this code, when an adult seduces a child, it tears the social fabric that joins all adults and all children. When a congressman flirts with a page, it tears the social trust that undergirds the entire page program. When an adult seduces a teenager, it ruptures the teenagers' bond with his family, and harms the bonds joining all families.

But what if all these things could be done in secret, so that the social fabric isn't affected at all? And what about abolishing slavery? It tore up the social fabric pretty bad. No, the real reason for being upset about the sexual harassment of children is not that it tears up the social fabric, because this tearing-up might be done for both good and bad reasons. The real reason is that it's wrong and that children don't have the power to defend themselves.

I'm pretty sure that Brooks has changed his basic philosophy about life quite recently. Only a few weeks ago he wrote this:

Consider all the theories put forward to explain personality. Freud argued that early family experiences relating to defecation and genital stimulation created unconscious states that influenced behavior through life. In the 1950's, the common view was that humans begin as nearly blank slates and that behavior is learned through stimulus and response. Over the ages, thinkers have argued that humans are divided between passion and reason, or between the angelic and the demonic.

But now the prevailing view is that brain patterns were established during the millenniums when humans were hunters and gatherers, and we live with the consequences.

Now, it is generally believed, our behavior is powerfully influenced by genes and hormones. Our temperaments are shaped by whether we happened to be born with the right mix of chemicals.

Consciousness has come to be seen as this relatively weak driver, riding atop an organ, the brain, it scarcely understands. When we read that male voles with longer vasopressin genes are more likely to remain monogamous, it seems plausible that so fundamental a quality could be tied to some discrete bit of biology.

This shift in how we see human behavior is bound to have huge effects. Freudianism encouraged people to think about destroying inhibitions. This new understanding both validates ancient stereotypes about the sexes, and fuzzes up moral judgments about human responsibility (biology inclines individuals toward certain virtues and vices).

Once radicals dreamed of new ways of living, but now happiness seems to consist of living in harmony with the patterns that nature and evolution laid down long, long ago.

But now he thinks differently:

This older code emphasizes not so much individual exploration as social ecology. It's based on the idea that people are primarily shaped by the moral order around them, which is engraved upon their minds via a million events and habits. Individuals are not defined by their lifestyle preferences but by their social functions as parents, job-holders and citizens, and the way they contribute to the shared moral order.

In this view, the social fabric is a precious thing, always in danger. And what Foley, and the character in the Ensler play, did was wrong, consent or no consent, because of the effects on the wider ecology.

As I said: The head, it hurts.

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Recent Political Polls 



The Time Magazine poll had bad news for the Bush administration and the Republican party:

The poll suggests the Foley affair may have dented Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress in November. Among the registered voters who were polled, 54% said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 39% who favored the Republican — a margin that has jumped by 11 points from a similar poll conducted in June. That increase may be fueled by the rolling scandal over sexually explicit e-mails sent to teenage pages by Republican Representative Mark Foley. Almost 80% of respondents were aware of the scandal, and only 16% approve of the Republicans' handling of it. Those polled were divided, however, on whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign over his handling of the Foley affair, with 39% saying he should resign and 38% saying he should not.

Iraq, meanwhile, is continuing to be a problem for the Republicans. Only 38% of respondents in the TIME poll now support President Bush's decision to invade Iraq, down from 42% three months ago. A similar number believe that the new Iraqi government will succeed in forming a stable democracy, while 59% believe this is unlikely. Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war, while 54% believe he "deliberately misled" Americans in making his case for war — a figure that has increased by 6 points over the past year. President Bush's overall approval rating, according to TIME's poll, now stands at just 36%, down from 38% in August.

Likewise, the latest Ipsos poll:

With midterm elections less than five weeks away, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that about half of likely voters say disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress will be very or extremely important when they enter the voting booth.

About two out of three of those voters said they would cast their ballots for Democrats in House races, further complicating the political landscape for Republicans already struggling against negative public perceptions.

...

Overall, Democrats maintained a 10-percentage point lead over Republicans in House races. Fifty-one percent of likely voters said they would vote for the Democrat in their congressional district; 41 percent said they would vote for the Republican. That's essentially unchanged from last month.

The number of adults who say the country is on the wrong track remained virtually unchanged from last month at 64 percent. That's still lower than in August, when it was 71 percent or May when it reached 73 percent.

The leading issue among likely voters remained
Iraq, followed closely by the economy.

But the poll also found that
President Bush's efforts to depict the war in Iraq as part of a larger campaign against terrorism and to portray Democrats as weak on national security was not altering the political landscape.

Approval of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq was at 37 percent among likely voters, down slightly from 41 percent last month. Bush's rating on handling foreign policy and terrorism also fell slightly, from 47 percent last month to 43 percent this month.

It will be interesting to see how conservative pundits turn this into good news for Republicans. They always do that, somehow.

But that question about the country being on the wrong track is a funny one, because people might agree that the country is on the wrong track for totally opposite reasons. I wish they asked a follow-up question to clarify that part.

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The Dildo Diaries 



This has been going around the blogosphere. I got it from Twisty. It's a video about the weird legal situation in Texas, plus you can see Molly Ivins speak.




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Thursday, October 05, 2006

freeSpeech: A Feminist Comment 



This post refers to the section on CBS news where people are given some time to state their opinions on various matters. I wrote earlier that the political opinions have been heavily tilted towards conservatives. But what I didn't really analyze was the feminist stuff in itself, and it turns out to be a useful exercize.

First, the last four opinion-utterers are all men: Mitch Albom, Bob Schieffer,
Richie Frohlichstein and Brian Rohrbough. So is the majority of the earlier ones:

freeSpeech: Lori Leibovich Video Watch
Mother Speaks About Pressures To Breastfeed

freeSpeech: Lee Hamilton Video Watch
9/11 Commission Vice-Chair Warns About Political Posturing On National Security

freeSpeech: Bob Schieffer Video Watch
CBS News' Chief Washington Correspondent Speaks Out About Enlistment And Broken Promises

freeSpeech: Natan Sharansky Video Watch
Former Soviet Dissident Speaks About American Freedom

freeSpeech: Douglas Brinkley Video Watch
New Orleans Historian Reflects On the Opening Of The Superdome

freeSpeech: Nancy Donley Video Watch
Mother Of E. Coli Victim Speaks About Government's Role In Food Safety

freeSpeech: 'Carlos'
Undocumented Young Man Describes Difficulties In Obtaining

freeSpeech: Bob Schieffer Video Watch
CBS News' Chief Washington Correspondent Compares The War In Iraq And Vietnam War

freeSpeech: Eugene Robinson Video Watch
Washington Post Columnist Speaks About Condoleezza Rice

freeSpeech: Irshad Manji Video Watch
Best-Selling Muslim Author Says Pope Was Calling For A Dialogue With The Muslim World

freeSpeech: Joanne Lessner Video Watch
Mom Proposes Alternative Cell Phone Bans In Schools

freeSpeech: Michael Gerson Video Watch
Former Bush Speechwriter Speaks About Genocide In Darfur

freeSpeech: Bob Schieffer Video Watch
CBS News' Chief Washington Correspondent Speaks Out About National Security

freeSpeech: Ahmed Younis Video Watch
Muslim Public Affairs Council Directors Speaks About Being Muslim In America

freeSpeech: Rudolph Giuliani Video Watch
Former NYC Mayor Reflects On The Sept. 11 Attacks

freeSpeech: Jim Twohie Video Watch
Comedy Writer Asks If We're Becoming A Society Afraid To Relax

freeSpeech: Rush Limbaugh Video Watch
Radio Host On Patriotism And The War On Terror

freeSpeech: Sonia Nazario Video Watch
Pulitzer Prize-Winning Reporter On Immigration & Family Values

freeSpeech: Morgan Spurlock Video Watch
Producer of "Super Size Me" Speaks Out About Freedom Of Speech

Bolds are mine. I count a total of five women in this list, and three of them are included as mothers. Of the fifteen men only one (Brian Rohrbough) was introduced as a father (of one of the victims in the Columbine massacre). So we have a three-to-one ratio of male opinions* to female opinions and the majority of women speak as mothers.

What does this mean, if anything? Assuming that I got all the people who have appeared in the freeSpeech segment it would look like men are more opinionated or are given more access to the program or push harder to get there. But it also looks like women might be given more credence if they speak as mothers. Or perhaps women feel bolder when speaking on behalf of their children. Or perhaps fathers are not listened to? Nah.
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*Not quite true, because Bob Schieffer has opined several times. I counted him only once in this post. If each of his opinions are counted separately then the ratio of male to female opinions would be eighteen to five.

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Capitol Crimes 



You can now watch Bill Moyers's program with that name if you missed it when it was broadcast earlier.

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Statistics Primer. Part 2: Probability 



Statistics is not the same as probability theory, but the latter is used in statistics and a small detour into the wonderful world of probabilities is necessary here. Let's start by grabbing the concept of probability by its horns: What is this thing?

It's a way of quantifying the likelihood of some event. Call the event that Echidne will tomorrow wake up all cheerful the event A (just to call it something short and sweet). Denote the probability of this event A with the shorthand p(A) (this is said "p of A"). How could we quantify this wonderful likelihood?

We can do it by defining an impossible event and a sure thing. Let's fix these two extreme values as follows:
p(A)=0 if A is an impossibility
and
p(A)=1 if A is certain to happen.

Given these two fixed values all other probability values would fall in the range from zero to one

This is fun. If I tell you that p(A) =0.14 for the event of me waking up chirpy as a bird you can now tell that I don't think it's very likely to happen. But there is an even funner aspect of this, for we can always define a second event, notA, being the event in which Echidne will not wake up cheerful. If p(A)=0.14, then the probability of notA, or the complement of A, will be...what?

It makes sense that it would be 1-p(A) = 0.86. Because something is going to happen and if it's not a cheerful Echidne, then it must be a grumpy or neutral Echidne that rises from that divine bed tomorrow morning, assuming that she does rise. As long as we are not counting some of my mental states in both events A and notA, this will work.

So what was funner about this? The fact that uncertainty actually increases as we move from probabilities close to zero towards the middle values and that it also increases as we move from probabilities close to one towards the middle values. So we have most uncertainty when the probability hovers around 0.50. When we are closer to the endpoints of zero or one, either the event or its complement is almost sure to happen, so we have less uncertainty. Plus the fact that probability theory can be used to make all sorts of formulas which will let us find the probabilities of combined events happening and so on. I'm not going that way but you may wish to do if you find this entertaining.

You might say that all this is well and good, but what is the anchor that settles this whole probability thing? Where do we get those values you made up here? There are three possible answers to this question. The first is the classical definition of probability and is best explained by thinking about games of chance in which the rules of events happening are simple to follow and where we can find very small events which clearly are equally likely to occur. For instance, think of the following game: You toss two fair dice at the same time. What is the probability that the dots on the top sides of the two dice add up to seven?

The solution consists of counting the number of events (here an event is the way the two dice fall) in which the dots add up to seven and then counting the total number of events, whatever the number of dots might add up to. The probability of the event we are interested in (the dot sum is 7) is the ratio between the two counts. The way to find these count values is by....counting!

First, I can count the total number of events by noting that the first die can take any value from one to six and so can the second die. This mean that for any value of the first die the second one could take any one of six possible values. Given that the first die can also take six values, the total number of events is 6 times 6 or 36. Second, I can look at all these 36 events and add the dots on the two dice for each of them. When I do that, I find that in exactly six cases (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2) and (6,1) the sum comes to 7. (Note that in the pairs I've given here the first die value always comes first and the second die value second and that (1,6) and (6,1) are two separate events). Third, we make up the probability ratio. Here it is 6/36 or 1/6 or 0.167.

The second way of anchoring the probability concept is more important in actual statistical studies, and that is to link probabilities of future events to what happened in the past. This makes sense as long as whatever affects these events hasn't changed in the meantime. This definition is called the objective definition of probability (to distinguish it from the third definition still to come) and also the long-run relative frequency definition of probability. The latter name hints at the way the probabilities are derived: By using long enough strings of information about actual events and by assuming that the events will replicate at the same frequencies in the future. The word "relative" is added because we standardize the probability measure to the scale from zero to one.

An example of this approach would be taking a coin that is known to be unfair (so that heads and tails are not going to be equally likely in tossing it) and finding out what the probability of head is by tossing the coin again and again and by writing down whether heads or tails turned up on each toss. Suppose you toss this coin a million times and find out that heads came out 400,000 times. Then the probability of heads using this coin would be 400,000/1,000,000 = 0.4.

Sadly, the easiest teaching examples on probability tend to be stuff like that. But the same principle applies to studies about voting activity or opinions in general.

The third definition of probability is the subjective one, also called the Bayesian definition. This differs from the other definitions in that a Bayesian statistician could ask a question such as this: What is the likelihood that Echidne is grinding her teeth right now? A strict objectivist would not ask such a question, because either I am grinding my teeth now or I am not; it's just that others can't observe which it might be. The subjective definition of probability has to do with our beliefs about events and is not strictly limited to predicting future probabilities. It can handle the way learning more facts changes our beliefs and other interesting questions like that.

The probability concepts most used in statistical studies are the long-run relative frequency view (which is used in the studies themselves) and the subjective view (which is used in the way we interpret the margins of error and similar concepts). My next post will talk a little more on the concept of probability distributions, needed for understanding sampling distributions.

What I hope you got from this post was the rough feeling that is conveyed by something like "candidate X has the probability of 0.7 of winning next month's elections", and that you'd also want to ask what the basis for this prediction is. It might be totally subjective or perhaps there was a poll in which 70% of those surveyed stated that they were going to vote for X. This relative frequency (70% is 0.7 in relative frequency terms) is then used as the probability of X getting elected, which naturally assumes that people will act according to their stated intentions in the survey and that the survey was representative of actual voters.

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Wednesday, October 04, 2006

When Moms Work, Kids Get Fat 



This is the headline of a Slate post by Tim Harford. The next line says "An incendiary new explanation for childhood obesity." I'm sure that Harford planned it that way, to get a lot of hits. The relevant piece in a long article about quite different explanations for childhood obesity is this:

That is all very interesting, but it does beg the question of why things are getting worse. Another trio of economists—Patricia Anderson, Kristin Butcher, and Phillip Levine—has suggested that two-income families may be producing the problem. They find that children are fatter if their mothers work longer hours. This is true even within families: The sibling who spent more time as a latchkey child will tend to be the fatter one, perhaps because the mother is less able to supervise outdoor play or has less time to cook and therefore buys more fast food. Unfortunately for working mothers who are already struck by guilt, the effects are pretty substantial. A mere 10 hours at work raises the chance of childhood obesity by 1.3 percentage points, which is about 10 percent.

Let's not go quite that fast. I looked at the original research summary, and what it states is that weeks worked by the mother had no correlation with childhood obesity. So when moms work, kids don't get fat. Get it? What the study did demonstrate was that childhood obesity was positively associated with mothers who work long hours per week, and only then for the educated white mothers, and that is the percentage Harford chooses to cite in his article. There was no relationship between childhood obesity and working hours for the black or Hispanic mothers. It might be worthwhile to dig out the sample numbers here. How many white and educated mothers did the study include?

Of course what this study and the Harford article really demonstrate is the accepted sex role division within families. Note that the researchers didn't even bother to study what impact fathers working might have on the children's obesity. Because women are supposed to be solely in charge of the family members' health and well-being. So we don't know if the highly educated women who worked intensive hours also had highly educated male partners who also worked intensive hours or if they had male partners who were at home and were supposed to check the children's diet. And we don't actually know if the children were "latchkey" children or if someone else was supervising them.

I really must make one explicit correction here, too, about this Harford sentence:

A mere 10 hours at work raises the chance of childhood obesity by 1.3 percentage points, which is about 10 percent.

This is just not true. Here is the actual quote from the study:

Their results suggest that a 10-hour increase in average hours worked per week will increase the overall probability a child is overweight by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. In the probit models, the point estimate on hours per week is always positive and increases with income quartile. For mothers in the highest socioeconomic status, the results indicate that a 10-hour increase in average hours worked per week since a child' birth increases the likelihood that the child will be overweight by 1.3 percentage points.

This is a very different thing from the Harford quote. The bolds are mine.
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Initial link via feministing.com.

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Some Feminist Announcements 



Olvlzl, my weekend guest blogger, has started a blog on the hate crimes against women. Check it out. His idea is to have one place which records crimes where the hatred of women was a major factor in the crime, and the idea is to bring this into general consciousness.

Remember the Ms. magazine campaign about abortions? There is now a poll on its desirability on the net. Remember what I just wrote about the bias in such internet polls? Nevertheless, you might want to express your support in a suitable manner, because although these polls are not representative ones they sure are a political game.

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Statistics Primer. Part 1: Samples 



Don't run away. This is going to be gentle and soft and not as hard as you expect. Honest. I'm going to teach you some statistics and you don't have to pay the sorts of fees I would usually get for this. Something for nothing! Well, not quite. You still have to be willing to work just a little. But by the end of this post you will be so smart and bullet-proofed against a lot of lying with statistics.

So let us begin, you and I, even though we are not T.S. Eliot or in a poem. Rather, imagine that we are in a kitchen, a kitchen with a gigantic pot of really wonderful-smelling soup in it, and imagine that we are responsible for deciding if the soup needs its seasonings corrected.

How would you go about doing that? Yep, you would take a spoon or a ladle and taste the soup. That is pretty much what statisticians do when they take a sample. A sample is a ladleful of information from the population which is the whole soup. The reason for studying a sample is also fairly close to the same reason we only taste a ladleful of the soup to check the seasoning. If we ate all the soup there would be none left and we'd have to make more which would be time-consuming and expensive. Likewise, studying the whole population would be time-consuming and expensive, and in some cases also destructive (imagine testing how long light bulbs work, say).

The soup-and-ladle analogy works pretty well for explaining how sampling works. Think about a soup that has not been well stirred, which has lumps of carrots in one area and all the onions in another area. If you dip a ladle into that soup and then taste the contents of the ladle you may get a very different idea of the overall taste depending on where the ladle happened to enter the soup.

The solution to correct that problem is to stir the soup first. That way we make it random. But we can't really stir populations, and so the solution in sampling is a little different. For example, we might skim the ladle across the surface of the soup or dip it a little into several different places in the soup to get an idea of the totality of the soup. These solutions and others similar to those are ways of trying to guarantee that we get what statisticians call a random sample. In the simplest case a random sample gives each unit in the population the same chances of being selected for the sample. More generally, random sampling tries to avoid bias. A biased sampling process is one where different elements in the population have different likelihoods of being entered into the sample. A biased sample might overrepresent the carrots, say, and have too few onions, because the carrots are volunteering for the sample and the onions are refusing to participate.

More generally, samples where people choose to participate, such as those you often see on the internet, are biased samples. They omit the opinions of all those people who don't go on the net or who don't feel strongly enough or have enough time to click the vote-button. The results, then, tell us little about what people in general might think about the question the poll posed. Another example of a biased sample would be to carry out a general health assessment study by using only hospital records to pick subjects. People who have not been in a hospital in the recent past will not have any chance of being included in the sample, and the results are probably going to be biased towards greater apparent ill-health. In short, we don't want to let people decide themselves if they want to be in the sample and we don't want to exclude some people altogether by picking a sampling frame (here hospital records and more generally the source we use to find the sample) that doesn't include them.

A good sample is not based on convenience sampling, either. An example of the latter would be when a reporter goes out to the local mall to ask people about their opinions on some hot-button issue. This is convenient for the reporter, but unless we are interested in the population of people in malls it is not a way of getting a representative range of opinion. It excludes all those who don't visit malls (the bedridden, for one group) and, depending on the time of the day, it might also exclude all people at work. And these excluded groups might have quite different average opinions.

So polls usually employ random sampling to get the group that then is questioned. What sampling frame should they use in this? The most common one today consists of telephone numbers for landlines. But you can see how this might become a poor sampling frame as just owning cell phones becomes more common, especially among the younger individuals.

Most polls don't use simple random sampling of the kind I described, the kind that would be close to putting all names in a large hat and then stirring the names and randomly picking some. The reasons for not using this are three: First, simple random sampling could be incredibly expensive. Imagine that you are doing a study and that you need to interview 2,000 people in person. If you pick the names for these people randomly all across the United States, you might end up having to travel to two thousand different localities. To avoid this, many studies first draw randomly a smaller numer of geographical localities and then randomly pick a certain number of respondents within each of these localities. In my example this could be picking twenty random places and then picking hundred respondents randomly in each place.

Second, a simple random sample of all Americans would need to be enormous to include a meaningful number of people who belong to the less common minority groups, American Indians, for example. This is because it is likely that the sample would consist of all groups in their proportions in the target population, and so even a large simple random sample might include just one American Indian. If pollsters wish to understand the opinions of these smaller groups they would base all the evidence on one person's opinions. Not very sensible. The solution is to oversample the rarer groups, so that the study is including enough variety within the subgroup, and then to shrink back the share of this group in the overall results by weighing it down to the relative population share of the group.

Third (though in some ways this isn't completely separate from the second reason explained above), sometimes the question that is studied suggests obvious subgroups which are very similar inside the subgroup but very different from other subgroups. It might make more sense in a setting like this to randomly sample some respondents within each subgroup, especially if what we are interested in are the very differences between the subgroups. An example would be to poll a certain number of individuals with each possible religious affiliation on the question of how these individuals view government sanctioned torture, or to poll anti-choice and pro-choice voters on their views on other political topics than reproductive choice

This might be a good time to leave the kitchen and to remind all of us about the basic problem we have: There is this population (the soup) and we don't know its characteristics (what it tastes like). It's too expensive and time-consuming to study the whole population (drink all the soup) to find out, so we take a sample (a ladleful) and we try to make sure that our sample is representative of the population, like a microcosm of the population macrocosm. So we use a method of random sampling. This lets us exclude bias.

Our sample might still not reflect the population, just because we might have bad luck in the sampling (such as happening to get all the bay leaf in your ladle when tasting a soup), but statisticians have a way of figuring out what the risk of this happening might be. (This will be the topic of my next post on statistics.)

Note also that if we sampled a very large soup with a very tiny spoon we'd be unlikely to get a very good idea of the taste of the soup. I recently read about a study used to justify single-sex schooling where the population studied consisted of fewer than twenty teenagers and where the whole result touted in the media was based on two teenage boys' responses. Now this is a very tiny spoon, especially to use in an attempt to overturn the whole education system.

More generally, samples in statistics must be of a certain size to be meaningful representations of populations. How large, depends partly on the population we are looking at. If it's very diverse we need a larger sample to capture that diversity. The size of the sample also depends on the precision we are seeking and on the kinds of questions we are asking.

But it's clear that asking one person in a telephone poll isn't enough to get an idea about the general views in the United States. What isn't quite as clear is the question of how many people we should pick for the sample to get a representative sample. Remember that the bigger the sample the more it will cost to interview or to study. This means that statisticians must weigh the needs for a larger sample against the costs of acquiring one, always remembering that one of the costs of a too-small sample is that it will have a greater chance of being unrepresentative. More about that later on, too.

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From the Memory Hole 



Or things that are being covered up by the predatorgate, things which we should talk about now, too. One of those things:

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and former Attorney General John Ashcroft received the same CIA briefing about an imminent al-Qaida strike on an American target that was given to the White House two months before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The State Department's disclosure Monday that the pair was briefed within a week after then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was told about the threat on July 10, 2001, raised new questions about what the Bush administration did in response, and about why so many officials have claimed they never received or don't remember the warning.

Remember the rumor that Ashcroft wouldn't fly on commercial airlines during the summer of 2001? I have no idea if that rumor is true, but if it is I will have nasty thoughts about Mr. Ashcroft and his views on how best to protect America.

But naturally the real message of this news item is somehow that we are safer now...

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Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Mark Foley (D-FL)? 



Brad blog has the oddest piece of news, if true. It seems that Bill O'Reilly's show on Fox News gave the ex-Congressman's party affiliation as Democrat. Foley was a Republican, of course, even though I'm sure that the party would love to disown him now.

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Housekeeping 



A couple of announcements. First, I'm planning to update the blogroll in the near future. Now that I've written it down I must do it, too. What I'd like to know is the value of a separate category in the blogroll, one for political and feminist action sites rather than blogs. Do you think it would be useful?

Second, for some odd and probably sick reason I want to write a series of posts on how to understand basic statistics in the way they are used in polling, for example. Would any of you read this? The impetus came from reading one too many bad interpretations of the margin of error in polls. I've already written some of the posts during bouts of divine insomnia, but they don't have to be posted here.

Third, my series of posts about travels in wingnuttia is not finished. I have at least one more to go, on the topic of the corrupt culture and the views on that held by groups who have different value systems. But I'm still reading stuff on that. When I post the third instalment (how many ls?) I will also give the links to the first two, so that they can be enjoyed as one long meal.

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Free Speech on CBS Evening News 



This is the new item in the news where a person can state his or her opinion on something. As I wrote earlier, it took CBS quite a while to give time for any liberal views and the feature is still very wingnut-tilted. Take a current example where the father of one of the boys killed in the Columbine massacres opined this:

This country is in a moral free-fall. For over two generations, the public school system has taught in a moral vacuum, expelling God from the school and from the government, replacing him with evolution, where the strong kill the weak, without moral consequences and life has no inherent value.

We teach there are no absolutes, no right or wrong. And I assure you the murder of innocent children is always wrong, including by abortion. Abortion has diminished the value of children.

Nothing about the easy availability of guns which turn one angry teenager into the equivalent of a small nuclear bomb. I think guns are why the United States has so many more deaths from violence than the European countries. It's just easier to kill lots of people with a gun than with your bare hands or a knife. But discussing this is politically futile.

Still, I could notice that school massacres unrelated to terrorism are a largely North American phenomenon, and so the cause for them might have something to do with whatever differs between this continent and, say, Europe. This difference is not in the availability of abortion or the teaching of evolution in schools. The difference is in the relative ease of getting armed to the teeth.

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Completing the Circle 



Don't you think that extremist political stances are in some ways much closer together than they initially seem? The old idea of looking at political sentiment along a straight line segment, with one end labeled extreme conservatives and the other end labeled communists isn't completely correct. The mindsets of those who perch at each end of this line segment are more alike than different. Authoritarian thinking, for instance, is something I sense in all extremist writing. We really should bend the line segment into an almost closed circle. That way the extremists are perching close to each other, and this also explains why when some people shift politically they jump from one end of the spectrum to the other. In reality they just move a little along the circle.

In a similar way, the ideology of the radical Christianist right in this country isn't that terribly different from their worst enemies, the Islamist radicals. Which is one reason I found this statement by the U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist hilarious:
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said Monday that the Afghan war against Taliban guerrillas can never be won militarily and urged support for efforts to bring "people who call themselves Taliban" and their allies into the government.

The Tennessee Republican said he learned from briefings that Taliban fighters were too numerous and had too much popular support to be defeated on the battlefield.

"You need to bring them into a more transparent type of government," Frist said during a brief visit to a U.S. and Romanian military base in the southern Taliban stronghold of Qalat. "And if that's accomplished, we'll be successful."

Frist later said that his statement was taken out of context, and that he was talking about something different:

I'm currently overseas visiting our troops in Afghanistan, but I wanted to take a moment to address an Associated Press story titled, "Frist: Taliban Should Be in Afghan Gov't." The story badly distorts my remarks and takes them out of context.

First of all, let me make something clear: The Taliban is a murderous band of terrorists who've oppressed the people of Afghanistan with their hateful ideology long enough. America's overthrow of the Taliban and support for responsible, democratic governance in Afghanistan is a great accomplishment that should not and will not be reversed.

Having discussed the situation with commanders on the ground, I believe that we cannot stabilize Afghanistan purely through military means. Our counter-insurgency strategy must win hearts and minds and persuade moderate Islamists potentially sympathetic to the Taliban to accept the legitimacy of the Afghan national government and democratic political processes.

Except that the moderate Taliban members are already in the Karzai government. But whatever. It looks like we are going to leave Afghanistan in exactly the same condition it was when the U.S. troops arrived, and there is no way to frame this into a victory. Unless you quite like the Taliban thinking on most issues, of course.

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On Hating Girls and Women 



This is not a post I enjoy writing and not a post that gives the reader much enjoyment, either, but it is a post that needs to be written. Yesterday's massacre of little girls was not because they were Amish. It was because they were girls. And only a few days earlier another murderer selected smaller teenaged girls for his violence in another school. Yet this is something the radio news last night didn't mention when discussing "school violence". Indeed, the Air America news avoided a single mention of the victims' gender. And you need to read far down into the newspaper stories before you come across a one-sentence-aside about the hatred for girls these horrible acts clearly demonstrate.

Why this silence, this looking-aside? Why make loud comments about possible motives but not look at the obvious one: that these men hated girls? Is it because on some level the society accepts such a hatred, because if we start focusing on it we have to ask some mighty unpleasant questions?

I know that the individual murderers in these cases were mentally unstable, not normal. But most of us, the consumers of these news, are supposed to be fairly stable and capable of reasoned discussion on the issues. We don't have to be protected from the astonishing finding that misogyny is rife in the society, and if by bringing the topic up we might make a few small changes here and there, who knows? A future victim or two could be saved.

By the small changes here and there I mean speaking out when a general discussion deteriorates into woman-bashing or girl-bashing, by not giving a sympathetic sounding board to a recently divorced and bitter man who blames all women for his misfortunes, but by pointing out to him that his anger is about one woman only, by making it very clear that generalized hatred of a whole gender is wrong and based on emotions rather than analysis. By standing up for girls when an internet chat discussion uses them as the example of everything cowardly, stupid and damp. By caring about hateful sexism as much as many of us care about hateful racism.

Then there are the hate sites where haters gather, where hate becomes acceptable and natural and normal. Will such sites one day be mentioned in horrible news reports as the enablers of another massacre of women or girls? I have no idea, but I fear the likelihood for this exists, and we will not be saved from this by averting our eyes and by letting the misogynists rant in peace in their own little worlds.

Do you know what they talk about, over there? Here are a few unlinked examples:

In the 50's, women kept their mouths shut a lot more than they do today — in fact they kept their mouths shut almost all the time. Imagine that! That could be why there was so much less homosexuality in the 50's, but I wouldn't know. That's not my area of expertise.

Without all that gabbing, women were able to concentrate their tiny brains on doing three or four jobs competently instead of doing all jobs worthlessly. Obviously, I'm talking about cooking, cleaning, drink-refreshening, and nursing.

Today's modern woman is different than her 50's counterpart. She's fatter, she won't shut the fuck up, she can't cook, she's a complete mess, drinks are out of the fucking question, and worst of all she makes a shitty nurse.

....


A woman voting on anything other than American Idol or her personal favorite type of chocolate is like watching a small child run full speed into a wall. Clearly the fundamentals are understood. The child runs, it's going somewhere and there's no doubt about that. The child can run. But very quickly one comes to the understanding that somewhere, somehow, the process has been perverted. Then comes the wall. Then comes the crying.

Women would vote for Hitler. Not because a woman could be talked into buying a catsup Popsicle while she was wearing white gloves, but because women are all fascists.


....

Women are everything [...] says they are…Lieing, cheating, whores!!!! You women who get your panties in a bunch over this website are living a life of fantasy. You women are happy so long as you can find a man who is willing to trade in his masculinity…usually for some half willed poorly conducted sexual favor…and thus be blind to the fact that you are a WHORE!

So it goes.

Do sites like these serve to release some of the steam caused by woman-hating? Are they helpful in the wider frame of things? Or do they make misogyny honorable and reinforced?

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Thinking about Echidne’s post about the Amish girls 






Thinking about Echidne’s post about the Amish girls murdered in their school, maybe we need an Internet equivalent of this.



olvlzl

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Monday, October 02, 2006

In Memoriam 



Of the little Amish girls:

A lone gunman walked into a one- room schoolhouse in the largely Amish community of Nickel Mines in southeastern Pennsylvania on Monday and shot as many as 10 girls, killing three immediately before shooting himself and dying at the scene, the state police said.

The man, identified as Charles Carl Roberts, 32, lived in the area, and was evidently nursing a long-held grievance expressed in notes left for his wife and children, said Jeffrey Miller, commissioner of the Pennsylvania state police.

He said the gunman lined the girls up against the blackboard, bound their feet and shot them execution-style in the head. Three of the girls died at the scene and seven others were rushed to nearby hospitals, some of them severely wounded.

An earlier Associated Press report quoted a local coroner as saying there were six people dead, but the coroner later said he was unsure, The AP said. At a news conference, Miller said that several victims had been taken to hospitals and that he did not know what their conditions were.

"There was some issue in the past" that had left the gunman with a desire to harm female students, Miller said. He said that the murders were premeditated and that the gunman had called his wife, without telling her he was holding hostages in a school, to say that he would not be coming home.

And in memoriam of Emily Keyes:

The gunman responsible for a deadly standoff at a Colorado High School methodically picked his hostages.

Investigators say 53 year old Duane Morrison set off Wednesday's deadly chain of events, when he walked into Platte Canyon high school outside Denver armed with a gun.

Witnesses say he selected six hostages in a classroom, all girls, and released the other students.

Five of the girls survived, but Morrison killed 16 year old Emily Keyes, then shot himself.

Investigators don't know what triggered the attack.

And in memoriam of the victims of the 1989 Quebec massacre:

The École Polytechnique massacre occurred on December 6, 1989, at the École Polytechnique de Montréal in Montreal, Quebec. Marc Lépine entered the campus and carried out a shooting rampage that killed 14 women as well as wounding 13 other people, before committing suicide shortly after. All of the victims targeted were women; other random individuals shot included women and men.

Shortly after 5 p.m., Lépine entered the École Polytechnique, an engineering school affiliated with the Université de Montréal. He had applied for admission into the engineering school but was rejected. He blamed it on affirmative action, which he believed kept him out in place of a woman (although the majority of students at the engineering school, and almost all the faculty members, were male). However, Lepine had not completed the prerequisite coursework at the junior college level required for admission. He first went into a mechanical engineering class, forced the men out at gunpoint, began to scream about how he hated feminists, and then opened fire. Lépine continued his rampage in other parts of the building, opening fire on other women he encountered. He killed 14 women (12 engineering students, one nursing student and one employee of the university) and injured 13 others (including at least 4 men) before committing suicide.

Born Gamil Gharibi, Lépine had a very troubled childhood, including an abusive father. During his parents' divorce, his mother told the court at their divorce hearing that her husband, an Algerian immigrant, "had a total disdain for women and believed they were intended only to serve men." After the divorce, Gharibi legally changed his name to Marc Lépine. He developed a lasting hatred toward women and had left a note blaming feminism for all the failures in his life, including his aforementioned rejection from the engineering school.


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Harry Potter Goes To Jesus Camp 





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On The Predatorgate 



This is Atrios's name for the Foley scandal and it's as good as any I can think of. The topic is one that swamps everything else in American political debate, and no wonder, really. It has all those button-pressing qualities: sex, gayness, minors, power, hypocricy and cover-up. I spent some time today reading the comments threads on the ABC news website, to get an idea of the general trends in the conversation (my comments threads are a lot superior, by the way), and the trends are the expected ones: Some commenters blame the Republicans, some commenters argue that the Democrats are even worse, some commenters focus on the need to protect the minors from predators and some commenters focus on homophobia. And there are naturally many comments which express shock and outrage in general, but also shock that something like this can be politicized.

Notice how writing it down like that makes me look nonjudgemental? How all the different opinions appear to be given equal credibility? It's odd, isn't it, to see how reporting something can twist it. Because it's pretty clear that Foley was guilty of abusing the power that his mentor position lent him with respect to the Congressional pages, and he certainly was guilty of hypocricy in supporting legislation to outlaw the very activities that he engaged in. And it's also getting clearer that the Republican leadership was guilty of not protecting the pages sufficiently, despite having known about some of the complaints for quite a long time. It is hard to see how this could not be politicized, especially as the Republican party sells itself as the party with values, though I do get the point of how such politicization shouldn't lead to further exploitation of any of pages in the form of excessive media attention, say.

That Foley is gay and appeared to grooming young boys for sex should be no different from a situation where a heterosexual politician does the same to young teenagers of the opposite sex. It probably would be treated differently, partly because of homophobia, but also because of sexism, especially if it was a straight man preying on teenaged girls. Girls are sometimes expected to be harassed, you know. It's only biologically natural that a good-looking girl needs attention. (And yes, I'm quoting from something I read on the net last night.)

No, it is the misuse of unopposed power that is at the core of the predatorgate, and in this it shares with many of the other recent Republican scandals. Maybe a one-party government isn't such a good idea, after all.

That much seems clear to me. But weird fringe arguments sprout up all over the place, from the article on the front page of the New York Times which mostly praised the warmth and caring that Mark Foley demonstrated in his grooming activities to Matt Drudge's recent claims that compared the teenaged boys to beasts, thus rearranging the blame for the events. These are not going to help the Republican party if that was the intention. And neither is the alcoholism defense which Foley has decided to use, except in that it lets him go into hiding.

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My Hindsight Bias 



Listen to this:

Antiwar liberals last week got to savor the four most satisfying words in the English language: "I told you so."

This was after a declassified National Intelligence Estimate asserted that the war in Iraq was creating more terrorists than it was eliminating. For millions of people who opposed President Bush's mission in Iraq from the start, this was proof positive that they had been right all along. Yes, they told themselves, we saw this disaster coming.

Only . . . that isn't quite true.

One of the most systematic errors in human perception is what psychologists call hindsight bias -- the feeling, after an event happens, that we knew all along it was going to happen. Across a wide spectrum of issues, from politics to the vagaries of the stock market, experiments show that once people know something, they readily believe they knew it all along.

This is not to say that no one predicted the war in Iraq would go badly, or that the insurgency would last so long. Many did. But where people might once have called such scenarios possible, or even likely, many will now be certain that they had known for sure that this was the only possible outcome.

"Liberals' assertion that they 'knew all along' that the war in Iraq would go badly are guilty of the hindsight bias," agreed Hal Arkes, a psychologist at Ohio State University, who has studied the hindsight bias and how to overcome it. "This is not to say that they didn't always think that the war was a bad idea."

Right-o. I guess. Except that I have an advantage over most people in this hindsight bidness. The blog archives. So I dug through them to see when I first wrote a post on Iraq and what I said in it. And here it is, on April 1, 2004:

On Iraq


I have not written much about the war and occupation of Iraq, and I'm not going to begin now, but I'd like to explain (if only to myself) why it's a topic I don't address very much.

The main reason for my silence is that there's very little that's funny about wars, and I want to write about funny things. Only twisted and sick humor thrives in the conditions of war, and I find that I can't laught while reading about dead people, people who are now legless and armless, people who are now homeless. War is about death, death of people and animals, of ideas and of places.

Sometimes there's no alternative for wars, or the alternatives are worse than the wars. But I never believed this to be the case in Iraq, and I found the U.S. administration unable to make a good case for this particular war at this particular time. This war was perhaps planned for a long time by the people now ruling the U.S., but if so, the planning appears to have been extremely poor. Iraq is not being 'pacified' or 'made safe for democracy'. It is a chaotic place where the most violent and desperate will win unless the U.S. troop strength is considerably increased, and even then any solution we impose is just that, an imposed solution which will not live once left to its own resources. Maybe the U.S. intentions were not all about oil or world dominance. I don't know. But democracy can't be imposed from above, and trying to do so while killing lots of people isn't exactly endearing the locals to Western ideals.

My second reason for relative silence is in the extreme sadness I feel whenever I try to think about the future for Iraq. The only realistic scenarios I can imagine are Iraq as an American colony and Iraq as a radical fundamentalist country. Neither scenario is one that I'd like to live under, and I doubt that the colony model would win out in the long run. Thus, by intervening in Iraq we have pretty much guaranteed another place like Afghanistan under Taliban, some time in the future, and I don't like such a society at all; if for no other reason than that I believe men and women are of equal worth and should have the same rights. I can't envisage a secular democracy in a country as religious as Iraq, especially given the number of people who are armed and the total historic lack of any real practise in democracy. Even countries with much less challenging problems than the ones Iraqis face have great difficulty with democracy. Just think of Russia. Or even the U.S...

Finally, my fear is that the net effect of the war and occupation in Iraq is to increase the forces of international terrorists, not to somehow make the world safer. Maybe the terrorists are right now concentrating on Iraq, but new ones are being created by the news from there, and the terror will inevitably spread out over time.

There you have it: my excuses for not commenting much on these historic events. I sincerely and desperately wish that my predictions and views are all wrong. I'd like nothing better than to be proved completely mistaken here, and to find, soon, a democratic and peaceful Iraq, with thriving institutions and civil society. But then I'd like the tooth-fairy to exist, too.

Heh. I'm all smug right now. Except that my writing skills may have gone downhill in the last two years.

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Being Heard 






If you are a woman you may have had this happen to you: You are attending a meeting with mostly men and you make a comment or a suggestion or a criticism, and the silence following it is thunderous. Then some time later a man makes the same statement and a lively discussion ensues. You sit there feeling like an ass, fuming, and wondering what you did wrong. Were you too soft-spoken? Too unclear? Did you imagine that you said the same thing? And how can you own the comment now, if it was a good one? It's too late and you'd look like an idiot if you said anything at all.

It turns out not to be an uncommon experience for women in traditionally male occupations or in academia or on boards of corporations. Learning this felt odd. In a way I was greatly relieved that I hadn't imagined the whole thing and that it wasn't my fault, but then I also felt a little hopeless about my chances to be heard in the future.

Juxtapose this with the new hit book on girlbrains by Louise Brizendine. She argues that women speak a lot more than men and faster, too, and I've already seen the feedback loop from her ideas at work on the net. Too bad that Brizendine took the idea from someone who made it up out of pure air:

The most recent to join the chorus is Dr. Louann Brizendine, clinical professor of psychiatry at the University of California, San Francisco. In her current best-seller, ``The Female Brain" (Morgan Road), Brizendine tells us that ``A woman uses about 20,000 words per day while a man uses about 7,000."

``The Female Brain" has made quite a splash since its publication last month, and this word-count claim is one of the most striking facts supporting her argument that the female brain is ``a lean, mean communicating machine." The 20,000 vs. 7,000 numbers have been cited in reviews all over the world, from The New York Times to the Mumbai Mirror.

...

The book's endnotes appear to attribute the numbers to a 1997 self-help book by Allan Pease and Allan Garner, ``Talk Language: How to Use Conversation for Profit and Pleasure." But Pease himself has presented several different word count numbers in other sources. In 2000, he published ``Why Men Don't Listen and Women Can't Read Maps" (with Barbara Pease), which attributes to women ``6,000-8,000 words," while men get ``just 2,000-4,000 words." (They also offer daily counts for women's and men's ``vocal sounds" and ``facial expressions, head movements, and other body language signals"-but don't provide a source for any of the counts.) In a 2004 CNN interview, Allan Pease said that ``women can speak 20,000 to 24,000 words a day versus a man's top end of 7,000 to 10,000."

Allan Pease is a prolific writer, and a sampling of his other recent titles gives a sense of his men-are-from-Mars, women-are-from-Venus philosophy: ``Why Men Don't Have a Clue and Women Always Need More Shoes"; ``Why Men Lie and Women Cry"; ``Why Men Can Only Do One Thing at a Time and Women Never Stop Talking."

Yet philosophy aside, why do the word counts vary so widely among Pease's various works and interviews? Two hypotheses come to mind: Maybe as time goes on, new data emerges from better studies. Or maybe he's using the same statistical methodology that generated those Eskimo snow-word counts. In the works that I've found so far, Pease and his coauthors never cite any specific studies as the source of these various numbers, so for the moment, my money's on the second theory.

Mmm. Turns out that the studies which actually exist suggest that either men speak more than women or that the sexes speak about the same amount and that men speak a little faster.

I began with the silence that followed my brilliant deductions because I think that these two items are linked: the myth that women speak "too much" and that they are thus not worth listening to. Unless they're selling books about how women speak a lot and so on.

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Sunday, October 01, 2006

Sunday Night October Heavy Gothic Poetry Blogging 

ULALUME

The skies they were ashen and sober;
The leaves they were crisped and sere-
The leaves they were withering and sere;
It was night in the lonesome October
Of my most immemorial year;
It was hard by the dim lake of Auber,
In the misty mid region of Weir-
It was down by the dank tarn of Auber,
In the ghoul-haunted woodland of Weir.

Here once, through an alley Titanic,
Of cypress, I roamed with my Soul-
Of cypress, with Psyche, my Soul.
There were days when my heart was volcanic
As the scoriac rivers that roll-
As the lavas that restlessly roll
Their sulphurous currents down Yaanek
In the ultimate climes of the pole-
That groan as they roll down Mount Yaanek
In the realms of the boreal pole.

Our talk had been serious and sober,
But our thoughts they were palsied and sere-
Our memories were treacherous and sere-
For we knew not the month was October,
And we marked not the night of the year-
(Ah, night of all nights in the year!)
We noted not the dim lake of Auber-
(Though once we had journeyed down here),
Remembered not the dank tarn of Auber,
Nor the ghoul-haunted woodland of Weir.

And now, as the night was senescent,
And star-dials pointed to morn-
As the star-dials hinted of morn-
At the end of our path a liquescent
And nebulous lustre was born,
Out of which a miraculous crescent
Arose with a duplicate horn-
Astarte's bediamonded crescent
Distinct with its duplicate horn.

And I said- "She is warmer than Dian:
She rolls through an ether of sighs-
She revels in a region of sighs:
She has seen that the tears are not dry on
These cheeks, where the worm never dies,
And has come past the stars of the Lion,
To point us the path to the skies-
To the Lethean peace of the skies-
Come up, in despite of the Lion,
To shine on us with her bright eyes-
Come up through the