Monday, August 21, 2006

On The CNN Poll

A new CNN poll suggests that the opposition to the Iraq war/occupation has reached a new peak:

Opposition among Americans to the war in Iraq has reached a new high, with only about a third of respondents saying they favor it, according to a poll released Monday.

Just 35 percent of 1,033 adults polled say they favor the war in Iraq; 61 percent say they oppose it -- the highest opposition noted in any CNN poll since the conflict began more than three years ago.

So. But "the anti-war candidate" Ned Lamont is outside the American mainstream. So is the American mainstream, it seems.

The rest of the poll isn't encouraging for the administration or the Republican party:

Fewer than half of respondents (44 percent) say they believe Bush is honest and trustworthy; 54 percent do not.

And just 41 percent say they agree with Bush on issues, versus 57 percent who say they disagree.

Americans are about evenly split on whether their commander-in-chief understands complex issues, with 47 percent saying yes, and 51 percent saying no.


Bush's tepid ratings do not bode well for his party's odds in the coming congressional elections. Asked which party's candidate they would vote for if the elections were held today, 52 percent of respondents cited the Democratic Party's; 43 percent the GOP's.

"Tepid" ratings? That's being overly polite. But I'm unhappy to see the Republicans still garnering 43% in this poll. The hardcore KoolAid drinkers of the Republican base are not that many, and a determined Democratic campaign should have whittled that number down a lot more.

As an aside, I wonder if these polls still use landlines only. If they do, there is a strong likelihood of oversampling the stay-at-home population, including the older voters. Adjusting the results by weighting the younger respondents' opinions more might not help if the younger stay-at-homes differ from those who are not at home (or at a landline telephone). I'm too lazy to study this question right now but it's something worth looking into.
You can see all the results in this pdf file.